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Veteran Advisor

From the floor April 27

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 13 1/2 cents lower at $7.59 1/4. The July soybean contract closed 4 3/4 cents lower at $13.84 1/2. The July wheat futures ended 35 cents lower at $8.12. The July soybean meal futures settled $2.60 per short ton lower at $361.80. The July soyoil futures settled $0.21 lower at $58.41.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.46 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 68 points.

 

Mike

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At 12:20pm:

Markets remain lower. One corn pit trader says, "I would agree a lot of profit-taking today. And with a few gap moves below we could still trade down to $7.49. However, this is still a bullish market."

 

One analyst says, "The $64,000 question is just how much of this weather has been discounted. Have we already dialed in prospects of a little shaving of yield, a little shaving of acreage,  or have we got more to go.  The answer lies in how the weather unfolds from this point forward. To some extent, the market is resigned to the fact that this is going to be a late-planted year. That we're going to lose a little bit of acreage. But, we are still at the front-end of the planting season. These 6-10 day weather forecasts are volatile and sometimes unreliable. The overall pattern is one that brings rain to the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and the Eastern Corn Belt. So, there's confidence that part of the Midwest will trend late-planted. The flipside is that 50% of the Corn Belt; Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, and parts of western Illinois that should be able to get going next week."

 

He adds, "The yield history on late planted years is quite mixed. Some of those years saw a higher yield trend, others below. For me, the odds of a below trend-yield go up to about 50% in a late-planted year, where normally those odds are 1-in-4. Also in late-planted years, you typically have corn yield declines between the August and final crop reports. So, this ups the need for really good weather from here forward and this allows the corn market to carry risk-premium higher and longer than in a normal planting year. The market may not go down very fast, post-planting season, because we won't be getting early corn harvested like the supply/demand situation is in need of. That idea has been the cornerstone for the USDA bridging this tight stock issue."

 

Mike

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At 11:35am;

BREAKING NEWS: Fed votes unanimously to keep rate low for an extended period of time. The dollar is falling, this should be positive for grain and soybean prices.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures are 10 1/4 cents lower at $7.62 1/2. The July soybean contract is 7 3/4 cents lower at $13.81 1/2. The July wheat futures are 42 cents lower at $8.05. The July soybean meal futures are $2.90 per short ton lower at $361.50. The July soyoil futures opened $0.20 lower at $58.42.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.35 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 16 points.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

Corn has trimmed its losses, all markets remain lower.

 

Mike

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In early trading:

The July corn futures are 13 cents lower at $7.59 3/4. The July soybean contract is 17 3/4 cents lower at $13.71 1/2. The July wheat futures are 23 cents lower at $8.24. The July soybean meal futures are $4.00 per short ton lower at $360.40. The July soyoil futures opened $0.52 lower at $58.10.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.31 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 8 points.

 

Weekly crude oil stocks jumped 6.0 million barrels, vs. the trade's expectations of 1.2 million. The outside markets are unfavorable for the grain and soybean markets. Plus, profit-taking is sinking the ag commodities Wednesday, traders say.

 

Mike

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At 8:10am:

FWIW: The CME Group announced Wednesday the the launch of Weekly Grain Options on Corn, Wheat and Soybeans futures to begin trading May 23. These contracts are listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CBOT.
Weekly Grain Options on corn, wheat and soybean futures will be American style and will be listed for electronic trading on CME Globex and open-outcry. Expirations will be every Friday, except for those Fridays when standard or serial options are scheduled to expire. The exchange will list three Weekly Grain Options concurrently for each futures contract.

 

Mike

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At 7:55am:

--Japan seeks 250,000 metric tons of feed-grain in a May tender. Japan canceled a previous feed-wheat, barley offer.

--USDA announced Wednesday that 100,000 HRW wheat was sold to an 'unknown' for 2011-12 delivery.

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 8-10 cents lower and wheat 7-9 cents lower. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference at 11:30am CST. A hint towards raising rates would move the dollar higher and put pressure on commodities.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.

Crude Oil=$0.37 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher as all eyes are on today's Fed rate announcement and a press conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

World Markets=Mostly higher.

 

In Chicago, it rained overnight and it is still raining this morning. Oh my. In April, there have been 16 days of measurable rain (0.01), most in 50 years since 1961, according to Chicago weatherman Tom Skilling. With a total of 4.56 inches, this makes it the 17th rainiest April in 140 years. Plus, rivers around Illinois are bank-full. There are flood watches out for today.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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8 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor April 27

Here in NW Indiana so much rain that now have lots of ponding. For sure the top yeilds for corn will now be affected, as the dry out period will be extremely long and more rain is in forecast. Some won't even get planted to corn. Lots will get mudded in. I think slightly less than average corn yeilds as of today, and decreasing from here.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 27

Dayton OH is within 1" of breaking their all time monthly rain record for April. We had an inch overnight and then another 1/2 this AM. and lucky for us there is no shortage of more in the forecast. I doube Ohio will show any planting progress this week for Monday's report. I keep hearing of some planters moving. What states are making progress this week?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor April 27

Central OH is under a flood watch, with more rain on the way. I got my corn planter out of the back barn two weeks ago. Hooked up all the monitors and greased everything, don't know why, it is still sitting in the same spot. I think I might put it away!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 27

docharing,

 

Based on what rain is sitting in your field and what may be coming, when do you think you will be able to plant?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 27

What is the reason for the drop in wheat and oats today?

 

Now the report on crude said inventories rose 6.2 million b. verse the expected 1.2 million b., and crude and gasoline futures  goes up......

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 27

JEC I think the gasoline inventory report is controlling the enrgy trade today.

 

From Bloomberg:

Gasoline rose to a 33-month high after the Energy Department reported that supplies fell to the lowest level since August 2009 and as Texas refinery shutdowns threatened to further deplete inventories.

Gasoline stockpiles dropped a tenth consecutive week, losing 2.51 million barrels to 205.6 million, and have shed 35.5 million barrels since Feb. 11, when they were the highest in almost 21 years. Power outages in Texas City disrupted production at three plants able to process about 800,000 barrels a day of crude.

“The power is back on, but it gave the market a huge scare and will probably mess up inventories next week,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “We lost precious time in building up our summer inventories.”

Gasoline for May delivery rose 4.73 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $3.4045 a gallon at 12:16 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $3.4171, the highest intraday price for the front-month contract since July 15, 2008.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor April 27

Mike,

We need 3-4 days of 60's temperatures and a little breeze to get going. Based on the local forecast this isn't likely until May 10th.

Any corn planted after May 10th takes a yield hit in our area.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 27

Just saw some images from the storms down in Alabama. A friend of mine in Birmingham said that town's a wreck and Tuscaloosa is in horrible shape.. 100+ tornadoes throughout the south. Awfully rough evening. Here's a video od some of the damage in Tuscaloosa: http://www.twitvid.com/D1HNK

Anybody feeling some severe weather tonight? Stay safe!
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