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Veteran Advisor

From the floor April 28

At the close:

The July corn futures settled down the 30 cent 'limit' at $7.29 1/4. The contract traded around $7.24, synthentically.  The July soybean contract closed 31 cents lower at $13.53 1/2. The July wheat futures closed 34 1/2 cents lower at $7.76. The July soybean meal futures settled $7.60 per short ton lower at $354.20. The July soyoil futures closed $1.48 lower at $56.93.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.10 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 36 points. Since 1980, silver hit a new record price of $50.

 

Mike

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At 12:11pm:

 

Corn hits limit down! One corn pit trader says, "Technical selling sent the market to limit down, as discussed coupled with warmer weather forecast and 3 good days for planting. BUT, as I said that this market went down to fill gaps and afterwards I see resumed buying."


Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures are 16 1/2 cents lower at $7.43 3/4. The July soybean contract is 1 cent lower at $13.83 1/2. The July wheat futures are 21 1/2 cents lower at $7.90 1/2. The July soybean meal futures are $1.30 per short ton higher at $363.10. The July soyoil futures are $0.35 lower at $58.06.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.39 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 14 points.


One CME Group corn pit trader says, "As I said yesterday, with exact scenario today, we left technical gap areas below and the first one was $7.49.  But, I believe it's merely about healthy corrections. Otherwise, the market is still bullish long term."

One analyst says, "Corn,wheat and beans continue to remove the recent weather premium, as this last system is now over and there's not another appreciable rain until next Thursday now. This has the trade thinking some spring wheat and corn could be planted early next week in the upper Plains. But, even if planting occurs, heavy rains enter on May 6 & 7 and then again May 11 & 12, leaving us generally well behind on planting."

Yet another analyst says, "Weather concerns don't stop after planting. The market is still going to be hanging on the edge needing to know the crops will be getting timely precipitation in the event of summer heat. For that matter, for the late planted areas, we will need later than normal frostings. And we won't know that for months."

 

Mike


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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 1 cent higher at $7.59. The July soybean contract opened 3 3/4 cents higher at $13.88 1/2. The July wheat futures opened 8 cents lower at $8.04. The July soybean meal futures opened $1.90 per short ton higher at $367.70. The July soyoil futures opened $0.12 higher at $58.54.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.03 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 8 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:30am:

Asian buyers are snatching up feed wheat, with its discount over corn lately, according to a report on the Dow Jones Newswire. Thursday, S. Korea buyers picked up 220,000 metric tons of feed wheat, with about half of it from Canada.

--Japan bought 336,518 metric tons of food wheat, mostly from the U.S. with some from Canada and Australia.

--Taiwan bought 34,000 metric tons of wheat from someone other than the U.S.

 

FWIW: Potash Corp. reported Thursday that its 2011 first quarter earnings were a record, due to higher crop-nutrient sales. You farmers can be proud you helped this Canadian company rich by pouring on the nitrogen to raise record amounts of corn this year. Also, Dow and Bunge companies are reporting higher first quarter earnings, due to a strong ag economy. The CME Group reported that first quarter earnings were up 90%. What do you think about all of this good news? I'm curious, do you invest and follow these ag stocks?

 

Mike

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At 7:35am:

Weekly Export Sales Thursday were weak for corn and soybeans, neutral for wheat.

 

Corn=443,700 metric tons, below the trade estimates between 600,000-1.2 million metric tons.

Soybeans=199,200 metric tons, below the trade expectations of 230-650,000 mt.

Wheat=418,200 mt vs. trade estimates of 200-550,000 mt.

Soymeal=127,000 mt.

Soyoil=24,000 mt.

 

For the Bulls: There's a lot of talk that 'outside' money is flowing into ag commodities. Plus, one analyst says, "Champaign, IL reports 6.5 inch precip in April, necessitating some replanting of the 9% of Illinois corn seeded so far.". And for today's trade, the overnights were strong and the outside markets are supportive for a higher trade Thursday."


Mike

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At 6:45am:


Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher and wheat 1-2 cents lower.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.

Crude Oil=$0.05 lower.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading flat with hesitation of the U.S. economy in the first quarter. A report to be released today will show that pace. Some believe high gasoline prices have slowed the U.S. economy.

World Markets=Mixed to mostly higher.

 

In Chicago, cloudy and cold. But, not raining at the moment. Looks like it could at any moment. No chop.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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14 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 28

Your comment about replant needs in IL makes me wonder if USDA will reduce the % planted in Monday's report. Not likely but wouldn't that be truthful?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 28

I'm not sure the re-plants are ever documented. But, I'm hearing that replanting talk from Illinois and Iowa. Farmers that are done planting, or have 500 acres, or 50 acres, are all facing replanting situations. The next question is whether farmers switch varieties. Other farmers, on the fringe areas of the Corn Belt, are faced with switching crops.


One analyst has learned from Pioneer that with grain supplies unusually tight, seed companies are dissuading farmers from switching prematurely to lower-yielding seed varieties because of the cool, wet weather that has delayed planting. Pioneer Hi-Bred's 4,000 sales representatives are urging their farmer-customers to wait two weeks before changing seed varieties,


Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 28

There are a lot of companies using the excuse of rising grain prices to help their bottom line and drain the consumer of more cash.

 

Read this on another site.  Here is the direct link.

 

http://www.agriculture.state.ia.us/press/2011Press/press03312011.asp

 

So if the actual cost of grain is only 11% of the cost of food......Joe Public is getting hosed and believing it and blaming the farmer....

Gosh, their PR works great.

 

Our corn and soy associations need to print copies of this press release in magazines and newspapers the city people read, and stop wasting our check off dollars on magazines to farmers.....

 

I have decided the one thing I can do is help people out locally that are struggling.  With the good prices, comes opportunities to help others more.  When you hand a person or family in need cash or a check....a 100% of it goes to the need. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Contributor

Re: From the floor April 28

Weather is better?  Profit taking? 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 28

reubencbd,

 

I know it sounds nuts, but the market has already priced in the delayed planting. And now it's pricing in a short window of warm, dry weather that has come out for next week. So, as farmers' planters still sit in the shed, and some farmers maybe fishing, this "futures" market is looking way ahead, not what's happening Thursday April 28.

 

Now the profit-taking is understandable, with the end of the month approaching. 

 

Are you all sold out on old-crop? Or, are you waiting for that spring rally?

 

Thanks for checking in and following Marketeye reubencbd.

 

Mike

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Contributor

Re: From the floor April 28

Hey love this board, so no problem.  Hanging on to a little. With what you said, how far ahead do you say "these" farmers look ahead?  I know as a farmer you have an idea when you look ahead, but going off the weather man is risky.  

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Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor April 28

I think those expecting significant planting progress soon may be in for a big surprise.

 

All the weather going over my head in the PNW is going inland. The patterns are strong asnd continuous out here. Moisture is continually being pumped in and no end in sight. Every area I have contact with north of the drought area has issues right now. And the severe drought area has not gotten much yet. Doesn't mean it won't eventually work itself out, but as a spec argument planting progress might be a dud.

 

Interestingly I see that Russia has made only 50% of the expected progress for planting spring wheat because of cold conditions and snow on the ground.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 28

Starting to look like we needed those expanded limits in corn today......  Smiley Happy 

 

But the Dow is up......

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 28

Palouser,

 

Just talked to a trader yesterday. He said he lost money yesterday, after putting on a trade that he thought was secure with delayed planting. I think you are right, this planting will not be turned around anytime soon. I know there is big equipment out there. But, you can't put big equipment in ponding fields, and saturated soils can you? 

 

However, there has been a lot of tiling this year. Maybe that is the saving grace?

 

Mike

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