From the floor April 4
After the close: This should get some of the wheat folks talking. The first USDA Crop Progress Report shows U.S. winter wheat rated 32% very-poor, 31% fair and 37% good/excellent. The 37% good/excellent rating compares to a year ago average of 65%.
Cotton acres are 6% planted vs. 4% a year ago. Oat plantings are behind in most states except Nebraska.
At the close:
The May corn futures closed 24 1/4 cents higher at $7.60 1/4, a new contract settlement record. The last record was $7.54 3/4 set in June 2008. An all-time intraday high was equaled at $7.65. The May soybean contract closed 9 3/4 cents lower at $13.84. The May wheat futures ended 30 1/2 cents higher at $7.90. The May soybean meal futures settled $3.90 per short ton lower at $357.00. The July soyoil futures closed $0.20 higher at $58.88.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.54 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 1 point.
One corn trader says the market still has higher objectives technically. We broke through trend-line to the upside, possibly headed for 7.71 or higher. We would have to get back down through 7.36 to change direction ideas. Keep in mind, today's limit is $7.66.
The May corn futures trade within 10 cents of the all-time high of $7.65, up 19 cents at $7.55. The May soybean contract is 4 3/4 cents lower at $13.89. The May wheat futures are 20 1/2 cents higher at $7.80. The May soybean meal futures are $1.40 per short ton lower at $359.50. The July soyoil futures are $0.09 higher at $58.77.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.19 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 23 points.
One analyst says, "Corn traders came in as buyers with the thinking that the Quarterly Stocks Reports last Friday, coming in almost 200 m.b. lower than estimates, sets up this Friday's USDA Monthly Supply/Demand Report to also drop ending stocks for old crop year as well."
"There's no room left here to cut ending stocks already too tight with the growing season woes yet to come."
Wheat sees another warmer and drier week ahead for our winter wheat crop, he says.
This afternoon at 3pm Central Time, USDA will release its first-of-the-year Crop Progress Report. "All look for a historicaly low number. Last year, the first report came in shockingly higher than expected, casting doubt on what the government reporting system was thinking, setting the bar that high. So, we await tonight's figure to use as a starting point for wheat," he says.
Corn is surging higher on a few key factors, traders say. First, this week's USDA Monthly Supply /Demand Report is seen as tightening ending stocks even further. Plus, the rain pattern in the Midwest is making the market nervous about planting delays. If the U.S. can't grow a 'perfect' crop, supply at the end of next year's marketing year could grow tight.
On the bearish side, it appears the speculator's long positions are dwindling. They added very few long positions, last week, according to the CFTC.
Notice Allendale Inc.'s pre-report estimates have corn, soy, and wheat ending stocks lowered:
US ENDING STOCKS USDA-Mar USDA-Mar ALDL Actual
million bushels 09/10 10/11 10/11 04/08/11
US Corn 1708 675 602
US Beans 151 140 125
US Wheat 976 843 839
WORLD ENDING STOCKS USDA-Mar USDA-Mar ALDL Actual
million metric tonnes 09/10 10/11 10/11 04/08/11
World Corn 144.54 123.14 121.92
World Soybeans 59.00 58.33 58.02
World Wheat 197.32 181.90 181.88
At the open:
The May corn futures opened 13 1/4 cents higher at $7.49 1/2. The May soybean contract opened 3 1/2 cents higher at $13.97 1/2. The May wheat futures opened 14 1/4 cents higher at $7.73 1/2. The May soybean meal futures opened $1.40 per short ton higher at $362.30. The July soyoil futures opened $0.14 higher.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 15 points.
On Friday, the USDA will release its monthly Supply/Demand Report. Also this week, traders are watching for a corn closing prie of $7.44. If that is realized, many believe the market heads above the 2008 record levels.
The CME Group announced Monday that its March agricultural commodities volume averaged a record 1.1 million contracts per day, up 60 percent compared with the prior March.
Early calls: Corn up 8-10 cents, soybeans 4-6 cents higher and wheat 10-12 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.35 higher. Crude has hit a 30-month high Monday.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher off of stronger March job growth.
More in a minute,
Re: From the floor April 4
Not much chatter here today. Thanks for the updates and commentary. This is the first thing I look at in the morning. Although it is hard to see the computer screen with all my corn money stacked up on my desk !
Re: From the floor April 4
Let me give you my home address. I'll help you clear that computer space, so you can see these Marketeye comments better!
Thanks for checking in. I'm officially calling today the biggest lurker day in history. You're right, a lot of visitors and not a lot of chatter. Folks are trying to catch their breath (or hold it) from last week's back-to-back limit up days.
The corn bull is running loose, it seems like.