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Veteran Advisor

From the floor April 5

At 11:30am:

One analyst sees today's market action like this: "There has been quite a bit of profit-taking today. I did some myself for some clients. But the markets are holding pretty strong, or at least the grains are. Wheat is a weather market for now and the weather in the southwestern Great Plains stays bad, so wheat is finding support. Corn spreads are working for the bulls and this is basically still the USDA Reports.  Even so, I would have thought today could be a down day.  Weather is better and yield reports are good in South America. Plus, there is still some talk of Chinese cancelations to hurt the bean complex today."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The May corn futures are 1/4 of a cent lower at $7.59. The May soybean contract is 13 1/2 cents lower at $13.70 1/2. The May wheat futures are 9 1/2 cents lower at $7.80 1/2. The May soybean meal futures are $4.30 per short ton lower at $352.70. The July soyoil futures are $0.28 lower at $58.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 30 points.

 

The outside markets are mixed, the corn market is gaining strength from uncertain April planting weather and demand strength. Overall, the grain and soybean markets are trading weaker.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures opened 2 1/2 cents lower at $7.57 1/4. The May soybean contract opened 9 1/4 cents lower at $13.74. The May wheat futures opened 1 3/4 cents lower at $7.93 1/4. The May soybean meal futures opened $2.60 per short ton lower at $359.60. The July soyoil futures opened $0.24 lower at $59.24.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.38 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 16 points.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

With China announcing an increase in their benchmark interest rates and deposit rates, trying to slow inflation, the Dollar is rising. This could put pressure on the grain prices today. What do you think?

 

--USDA announced Tuesday that 101,600 metric tons of U.S. corn was sold to an 'unknown' buyer for 2011-12 delivery.

 

Mike

--------

At 7:45am:

 

PFGBest.com, an Iowa-based market brokerage firm, released pre-USDA report estimates. Friday's data will be released at 7:30am CST:

 

U.S. Ending Stocks:
Corn=625
Beans=140
Wheat=835   

WORLD STOCK
Corn=122.9
Beans=58.5
Wheat=181.0    

 

A PFGBEST.com analyst says, "Corn looks to come in lower to adjust in the lower quarterly stocks number. Beans look unchanged as South American bean production continues better with U.S. exports slowing, all offsetting lower quarterly stocks. Wheat production in the U.S. looks lower on continued dry winter wheat states weather and historic low crop ratings."

 

Mike

------

At 7:30am:

New & Nuggets:

--Despite poor wheat conditions for most states, Ill., Ind., and Ark. wheat strength may weigh on prices.

--Read yesterday that Congress is set to consider big ag subsidies in budget cut talks.

--China demand seen strong for corn, soybeans this year.  Read full story here

--Awhile back, I talked about how world investors want to replace Russia with Indonesia in what's called the BRIC countries. This morning, a Dow Jones Newsire mentions the U.S. trade groups want to dance with Indonesia. Read full story here.

A One analyst sees t 6:50am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 6-7 cents lower and wheat 2-4 cents higher.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.

Crude Oil=$0.70 lower.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher, as it is in a 'wait and see' mode with an upcoming earnings season.  

World Markets=Mixed-to-lower.

 


More in a minute,


Mike

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6 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 5

Since the report came out the differential between new crop corn and new soybeans has narrowed

13.20/6.01= 2.16  (my local cash prices)

 

This favors planting more corn but is it soon enough for many farmers to actually make the switch?

 

Has anyone here changed their crop plan since April 1?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 5

Perhaps this note from the U.S. Grains Council will make that planting choice less important. This is the opening paragraph of a USGC press release Tuesday:


"During his visit to China last week, U.S. Grains Council President and CEO Thomas C. Dorr heard from Chinese sources that state corn reserves are 10-12 million metric tons (390-472 million bushels) of corn less than previously thought for the 2011/2012 crop year."

 

I guess this makes you think China is going to need corn and soybeans this year. And maybe a lot of them.

 

I did just talk to an Iowa farmer that is planning to plant a little more corn than first thought. Problem is, he can't plant too much corn because he has quite a bit new-crop soybeans sold already. And that scenario right there might play out for a lot of guys this year. They might want to plant more corn but they are tapped out.

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 5

Mike..... I have nothing sold for new crop...... I CAN BE BOUGHT...... But at the current prices I am staying the course...... 50/50......:~)......p-oed

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 5

Southwest Ohio-----can you harvest 25% moisture corn in LH September....??

 

if so, you are looking at $7 instead of $6

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 5

We have +.45 right now for Aug vs Aug/Sept contract.
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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 5

Ray it depends too much on the weather to count on harvesting early. I volunteered to pull off a few acres in September one year so the city could launch fireworks from there for a one time event. It was 27% and cost a boatload to dry down.

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