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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 8

farmer3,

 

There sure seems to be disbelief in the government report, today. We opened only slightly lower on corn and wheat, soybeans are 17 cents higher. It sounds like the futures pits are quiet, and the options pits have all of the action, this morning. Regarding corn, I thought we would fall harder, as a result of the report and what the traders were saying. However, you have to wonder if folks still believe the stocks are tight, it's raining in the Midwest (blocking any planting plans) and folks are nervous being short the market.

 

It's kind of an eerie feeling here, at this hour. It's almost like that feeling you get when you're waiting for the other shoe to drop. Some scratching of the head maybe.

 

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 8

You're not missing anything, according to the floor traders this morning. I'm told the corn market could take 40-50 cents off and then come roaring back, with all of the buying interest out there.

 

Having said that, keep this in mind. Right now, corn has turned higher Friday. So, if a really bearish USDA Report can't even keep the market lower, what can, you wonder? That's right, as I write, the corn market has turned higher, even with that bearish number this morning.

 

Can you spell R-e-s-i-l-i-e-n-c-e

 

Mike

 

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Re: From the floor April 8

..So who didn't listen to his own assertion that Govt. reports are pretty much "irrelevant" any more. Would someone hand me a ball pein to whack myself between the eyes?....LOL

 

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Re: From the floor April 8

Corn is higher, but it really looks like an old chair that is about ready to fall apart. It tried to run up and didn't find much buying. Wheat is trying to make that run, as we speak. We'll see if it can find any interest up there. And soybeans are perched at that 22 cents higher mark. It looks comfortable sitting there.

 

Mike

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Contributor

Re: From the floor April 8

 

 Your not alone pupdaddy!!!!!!      LOL    o well its only money!!!!!             Stan

 

 

 

     Its never to late to follow your dream...........    Flordia  from Nov1 to March 31.............

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor April 8

It's not so much about R-e-s-i-l-i-e-n-c-e as it is about R-e-a-l-i-t-y. Using 'bearish' in this morning's report headline may be technically accurate but the reality is that even the modest increase in corn stocks posted in the report still leaves us with a historic low carryover. I found myself in disbelief reading your quotes from traders about a limit down move, are these guys on drugs?

 

Us farmers have to be very careful not to overreact to this kind of noise. I hope not too many sold off before the open because of misinterpreting this report. It is as you say a bigger picture driving this year's market with many influences from governemnt shutdowns, soaring oil prices, tight stocks, and the ever changing weather impacts on northern planting and southern harvest.

 

And it is not just today's report news. I also found it a little numbing that with all this info the traders still pushed prices down as much as they did before the quarterly report last month. Where is the sanity? Smiley Mad

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Re: From the floor April 8, Report reaction, One analyst

says,  " in corn they jockeyed 50 million bu from feed use to ethanol which suggests the E sector is stronger than the feed sector, etc.. " 

 

 

Just in case everyone has missed it, the E sector IS truely stronger than the feed sector now.

There's not a traditional feed use corn user left in the usa...not in any of the feed species chickies, hogs, cattle, dairy etc..

All the previous corn users are using generally 30% to 40% less corn for chickies and hogs.

In the beef and dairy sectors that previous use has dropped to generally 65% to 80% less corn used on dairy...with many beef operations using NO corn what so ever.

 

Times changed. 

E, IS the main use for usa corn. 

There's not a competing sector out there that can run with the E market for corn.

 

It's that simple too. 

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Re: From the floor April 8

Marketeye,

Thank you for the great reporting! I am off the coast of Northern Honshu supporting Operation Tomodachi. Helping out my neighbors here in Japan.  There is a lot the Japanese need so the little bit I can do is a nice feeling.

So all the negative comments of the government report make me think, what if there were no government reports?  Maybe this is one place to save a penny so us in the military can make a penny?  What if we ask the question of will you miss the government report  instead of is the report right/wrong?  Just a thought.

Keep up the great work,

Tree farmer

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor April 8

Tree farmer,

 

You are welcome, sir! Thanks for serving in the U.S. Military. I salute you, sir! I appreciate you setting aside your life and protecting life, liberty and freedom for us. I'll say a prayer for you and those in Japan, by the way.

 

Now, back to the reports. There is talk, this week, about the government cutting some monthly crop reports. The argument is, if the reports are left to the private sector, only a few in agribusiness will dominate the information. Right now, it seems that right or wrong as the information may be, anyone that wants a peek at the information has a chance to look.

 

So, which way do you go?

 

Thanks again sir for following Marketeye. Are you checking in via smartphone or internet service on a computer in the barracks? I've never been in the Military, so pardon my lingo.

 

Whoa, lookee there, corn is now up 7 cents. So much for that negative report huh?

 

Mike

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Re: From the floor April 8

SouthWestOhio,

 

I agree with you. I hate it when we come out of the box, on a report, and say this baby is negative. Then as we get closer to the opening bell, opinions change. This morning, the consensus went from 10-15 lower, to possibly limit down, to maybe unchanged or 10-15 lower. On most reports, we have a decent idea of the direction of the opening. Today, the market makes us all look bad.

 

I also agree that this stuff, even that I write, is noise. Some of it can be necessary noise, some not. It's of my opinion that farmers need a risk management plan. If you are letting a 10 cent move down that shifts to a 7 cent move higher, on any given day, affect your overall plan, you might want to solidify that marketing plan. So, even though a bearish gov't number, a gov't shutdown, a rainy April, a hungry China, or falling dollar, all can be considered 'noise'. It seems that all of these are pieces of a larger risk management puzzle. I'm rambling, I better go have lunch. Good luck.

 

Mike

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