Corn Yeild

[gbryce]

I would say USDA prints somewhere in the 156.2 BPA range, try to take that yeild down gradually til Jan. Report.

I would guess actual corn drop out there at  153. -154.5 BPA right now, but what I have seen in my corn (this maybe quite regional as we are looking at probably an average 45 BPA corn) is not pretty. The outside of the field looks fair, go into the feild and ears get pretty small, pull the husks back and break the cob, and the kernals are probably 2/3 size of normal, that kernal size is where Ibelieve yeild will be lost that has not been recognized yet.

Anyway I am figuring 92.5 ac planted  @ 91% harvested = 84.175 mil ac. @ 153.75 BPA = 12.941 bil. bushels , and I maybe a bit high on percent harvested. Go to 90% harvested due to Excess River flooding, drought in Kansas, and that will give a 12.8 bil bu.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Mike,

The question on harvest vs. Aug estimates is how it affects our marketing.  Since other factors are involved, Aug yields may be interesting but not definitive in determining prices.

I am going to stay right where I am going into the report.  I feel more chance that prices will hold or even improve than that they will decline, I guess is another way of saying it.  This is on the long term, not just a day or fewe weeks prices. 

[animalfeeder]

I would like to just add my two cents as a end user. We all know the crop is not that good. Here in my corner of Michigan it looks awsome. We are set up to have a great corn crop. With that said what kind of price are you growers going to be happy with? I have Said it before and I am going to say it again, The livestock/poultry industry cannot afford prices to stay at these levels for alot longer. The broiler industry is in big trouble, the turkey industry is not to far behind, cattle and hogs are o.k. at the moment. So I say again what price before we take some huge damand away from this market. I am a end user of grain and a poultry grower so don't come on here and tell me I don't know what i am talking about I am just stating the truth. It is easy for you guys to sit here and say alot of producers are locking in prices for next year or they should have. Put yourself in our shoes we are looking for the lowest price possible to lock in at. I do not know of anyone yet here in west Michigan that has locked in much corn hoping to see a break. And they will not do so at these levels. And for all you thinking we are running out of corn we are not having any problem sorcing corn at all in Michigan.

[NDf]

Animal if prices are going higher I won't be happy if I don't hve any to sell at that higher price. It's no different than you having the opportunity to buy corn at $2, but waiting to buy during the harvest glut for a lower price. You could make money at 2 but  you know it's going lower so you wait. We both can't worry about the other side all we can do is produce the most we can and hope the other side makes money

[dapper7]

echo small dog, we need a rain in nw ia. half inch in over 3 weeks. wont cut it with the heat we had.

[BA Deere]

Hey animalfeeder, none of us can individually affect the corn price, we`re all price takers.  Just to give a peon`s perspective from NCIA we have a decent crop coming, however if the promised rain doesn`t come to fruition, we`ll be hurtin`.  I have not forward sold one peck of grain thus far.  The market will get alot of my corn hot off the combine, if it`s a little over $6 and I will be happy, that would probably translate into $7ish to you feeders. Would $7ish be agreeable to you feeders?  If I don`t get $6.... beepity beep it! It goes to the bin!  Fertilizer among all the other inputs for growing a crop are going parabolic so $6 is fair.  What has been a little agravating is that in Feb we were "told" we gotta have 93m/a and +160 trend yields..it never looked like 93 was in the cards and trend has mostly looked like a pipe-dream. The Gurus said "if it don`t hold $7.04 LOOK OUT BELOW!!!", they implied that corn in the $4`s was a danger.  The ins guarantee is $6.02 so I have said let it ride.  Bottomline, in this environment the enduser probably has to make $7ish corn work. BTW just about every farmer I`ve talked to this year has a common theme "I sold too much $5 corn too soon", so somebody`s going to take delivery of alot of $5 corn.