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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 11

Mike and all-

 

First of all, Mike, hang on to your britches over there in the Floor when that opening bell clangs! 

 

Just chatted with Don Roose, a trader and analyst. He says this morning's message is crystal clear: The time for serious corn rationing has begun.

 

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Contributor

Re: From the floor August 11

Am I reading this right.   Looks like they have Illinois yield at 170 compared to 157 last year and Iowa at 177 compared to 165 last year.  Are there that many acres in the two big I states with better yields than last year?

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Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor August 11

Maybe my corn will do 177, I don't kinow.  I'm having a hard time deciding it's potential.  Illinois at 170 seems like seems on the high side, from what I've read and talking to a friend who farms there, but I have no direct assessment.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor August 11

Just ran into a big group of Iowa farmers that are visiting the floor today. The farmers from northwest Iowa had conflicting reports on whether they needed rain or not. Two farmers that live 20 miles apart gave different answers as to their moisture levels; one said he had 10-12 inches in a short time the other day, the other farmer says he is very dry. Hmmmm.....

 

They are Marketeye fans though. So, I let them off the hook. Smiley Happy

 

Mike

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Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor August 11

I think the resistance to rationing will be higher than many think. Add to that the likelihood (in my judgment) that China is still ramping up meat production and overall usage. Again, there is a reason China tries to maintain reserves - in order not to be victimized by shortfall elsewhere - like the US. But they will gradually lose ground and US farmers will benefit.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor August 11

Isn't the soybean crop made or lost in August?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor August 11

Mike this crop is soo hard to judge. I know my corn looks good from the road (if you ignore the burned leaves) until you get into it and then you realize there just isn't much there. Driving through the heart of the cornbelt things looked really good for corn but it might be the same issue as my corn.... when you get into the field things look totally different. The spots in the field that retained moisture look good and seemed to pollinate OK so that's why I question some of the poor pollination reports coming from Iowa and Minnesota that received twice the amount of moisture in July than the rest of the cornbelt. I think the soybean crop has come along ways in the past couple weeks. USDA's projection of 41 bpa is probably right on but 153 in corn I still believe is too low.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor August 11

I am one of the northwest Iowa farmers that needs rain.....crops looking very dry here......!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor August 11

Perhaps the quote the year will be: "It's not the moisture, it's the heat"?

 

That is what an Iowa farmer told me this morning. The heat was so strong and lasted so long and hit at such a ciritical time in the growing process that even moisture couldn't bring it back to glory. From everyone I talk to and the fields that I've been in, I'm starting to believe this quote! The question is when will the market digest this quote?

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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Senior Reader

Re: From the floor August 11

I know the place where they had that much,  I missed the big rain. I am in NW IA , and am in good shape, but the dry is creeping in.

 

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