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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor August 17

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 cent higher at $7.28 1/2, and earlier this morning hitting a high for the year. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 12 1/2 cents higher at $13.62. The Sep. wheat futures are 6 3/4 cents higher at $7.31 1/2. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.73 higher at $56.27. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.30 per short ton higher at $358.70.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 31 points.

 

On analyst, feeling very talkative, says the outside markets are favorable for the grains. "This is sending a message to Index and trend-following funds to buy commodities. However, beneficial rains that are expected to hit the Midwest this weekend are capping gains. Corn is making highs for the year, for the second day in a row. The soybean and wheat markets are still trying to catch up to corn's fast trading pace. Keep in mind month-end profit-taking is right around the corner. It's believed the funds will take profits and then turn around and get long before the September 12 USDA Report. Also, the worst ever drought in the Plains states has some thinking the U.S. winter wheat plantings will drop. Much like Russia experienced a year ago, the U.S. wheat market could explode from significantly lower wheat acres."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened between 1-4 cents higher. The Nov. soybean contract opened 7 1/2 cents higher at $13.57. The Sep. wheat futures opened 10 cents higher at $7.34 3/4. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.49 higher at $56.02. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $2.00 per short ton higher at $359.50.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.20 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 97 points.

 

Mike

------------

At 6:50am:

In The Big Picture: One analyst says, "In the big picture, I look for corn to not trade higher than $7.40 to $7.45, basis December futures, with potential for $8.00 to $8.25 in September, if the report unveils corn's true condition. Don't forget a near-term rally means fund profit-taking before months end. Then a rally into the September report can be expected," he says.

 

What do you think of this anlayst's "big picture" outlook? He said this after writing a report that includes comments that weaker corn yields are expected and incoming reports of poor soybean pod-counts.

 

Market noise:

--Japan is seeking 250,000 metric tons of feed grain in Aug. from Can., Austr., U.S., and France.

--Russia exported a record 2.6 mmt of grain in July, following the lifting of its export ban.

--China's corn demand is blowing people's minds. A Dow Jones Newswire 'must read' here

on how the trade is fascinated by the possibilities.

--Here's a DJ story sourcing a 200-page report about how commodities have upside potential for at least the next two years. Step up and get "bulled up" right here.

 

Mike

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.At 6:20am:

Early calls: Corn down 1-2 cents, soybeans down 1-2 cents, and wheat down 1-2 cents.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.

Crude Oil=$1.04 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading lower as Germany & France's leaders met but didn't come out of the meeting with an immediate plan to calm the fears that Europe's financial crisis is spreading. In the U.S., inflation data is expected to be announced Wednesday. Also, stores involved in back-to-school sales are expected to report today. Overall, financial worries prevail. 

World Markets=Mixed.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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12 Replies
small dog
Contributor

Re: From the floor August 17

We must not be running out of corn,  my local elevator has gone from +30 to a +10 in the last 10 days.  on a side note a local land auction here in nw Iowa brought 14850 per acre

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 17

Yes small dog, basis appears under pressure in Ontario too.

'Talk' is big users are pretty well booked up and there is still corn in farmers hands looking for a home.

I have some of that corn and is why I am hearing of this.

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 17

How big was the farm that sold for that much??    Bullish on prices for the next 2 years???  So what's going to stop this train wreck, policy change, pushing the dollar and interest rates higher??   That's what I'm guess will happen when we have an administration change.   The local ethanol plant posted that margin's improved on ethanol.  

 

For the farmers that are holding corn,  I have some bushels too, but to be holding corn at $7 plus what the hey?   We can't go that much higher without shutting down demand completely can we?? 

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 17

I read the links that you had on the first post.  One thing that threw up a red flag is that the growth is spurred by China's gov.  Investments.   What happens when they stop doing that?    That's a really, really, really bullish article,  I'm not saying its not true, but it scares me a little.  Growth at 9.5%,   that's way to high,

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 17

I think the China demand is already priced into these markets. It certainly is no great secret.

 

Also, I am skeptical of any comment that refers to the crops "true condition". While it is possible the current ratings are high, it is also pure speculation that they are incorrect.

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muddymiller
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor August 17

It's only pure speculation to those who haven;t walked the fields yet. Borrow someones fields and take a hike.
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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 17

muddy-

 

I will be the first to admit I dont have any fields, dont do any farming, and know very little about how to grow corn- so, your little jab is not required

 

WIth that said, even if I walked into one of the many fields of corn here in NC, I would have an assessment of about 0.00000000001% of the entire corn crop. Hardly a representative sample.

 

Like it or not, the USDA numbers are the BEST available. You may disagree with them but like I said, that is pure speculation. Unless of course you have sent out thousands of surveys to farmers all over the country?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor August 17

Yeah, the stories are pretty bullish. I thought you might find them interesting. This farming thing is really wild isn't it? And I'm not even taking on the risk that ya'll are. I'm just the guy looking down on the chute watching the bull rider tighten his grip under the rope as he gets ready for the gate to swing open. Hold on my friends, this market action will last longer than a 4.5 second bull ride, I'm guessing.

 

Mike

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Mike

This is bigger than an 8 second ride, we did that last fall.............

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