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From the floor August 18
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures closed 12 1/2 cents lower at $7.13. The Nov. soybean contract settled 5 3/4 cents lower at $13.61. The Sep. wheat futures ended 19 3/4 cents lower at $7.07 3/4. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.41 lower at $55.83. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $1.70 per short ton lower at $359.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $5.91 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 419 points.
Mike
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At mid-session:
The Dec. corn futures are trading 11 1/2 cents lower at $7.14. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 9 1/2 cents lower at $13.57 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 15 1/2 cents lower at $7.12. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.63 lower at $55.61. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $2.40 per short ton lower at $358.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.94 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 409 points.
The farm markets remain under heavy pressure. One analyst says, "This is selling in response to Europe's debt problems more than anything. The selling started in the early morning hours of the overnight trade and basically continued for the first half hour. Now, things seem to have entered a holding pattern. But, I think mostly because the panic-selling is gone and not because any new buying is coming in. I am trying to get people to buy and the interest is not there yet. They are waiting for another shoe to drop. But, if grains just trade on their own, it is hard not to want to buy given the short crops and talk that crops are getting smaller and not larger. We might see some more selling into tomorrow, but I would be a buyer as I think this Europe stuff is kind of window-dressing."
Mike
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At the open:
The Dec. corn futures opened 15 cents lower at $7.09 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 16 3/4 cents lower at $13.49 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures opened 22 1/2 cents lower at $7.05. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.75 higher at $55.49. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $3.40 per short ton at $357.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $4.20 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 457 points.
The stock market tanks on disappointing news regarding the Euro zone's debt crisis. Hold on, this is going to be a bumpy ride today!!!!
Mike
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At 8:05am:
As I was leaving the floor yesterday, I was told the FSA and NASS agencies were meeting late afternoon to adjust previously reported acreage numbers. But, I wasn't told on which crop the acreage change would come from. This morning, the Dow Jones Newswire is reporting that U.S. spring wheat planted acres are now estimated at 11.7 million vs. the USDA's latest estimate of 12.7 million. In all, 2.6 million acres didn't get planted in the northern Plains due to flooding. It's an interesting story regarding how the FSA quietly released these numbers. Of course, the FSA says they were not trying to be quiet about releasing the lower acreage number.
Mike
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7:30am:
The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report is negative Thursday, for the most part. What do you think? Does it matter?
Corn=523,800 mt vs. the trade expectations between 700,000-900,000.
Soybeans=421,500 mt vs. the trade's estimate of 550,000-850,000.
Wheat=548,800 mt vs. the trade's estimatre of 550,000-650,000.
Soymeal=58,700 mt vs. the trade's estimate of 75,000-125,000.
Soyoil=75,000 vs. the trade's estimate of 25,000-35,000 mt.
Mike
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At 6:38am:
Early calls: Corn down 6-8 cents, soybeans down 6-8 cents, and wheat down 10-12 cents.
Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$1.36 lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower with continued worries over the global economic data. Also, there is no real incentive for investors to get excited about u.S. jobs and inflation reports due out today and tomorrow.
World Markets=Lower.
More in a minute,
Mike
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Re: From the floor August 18
Equities looking like they are going to sell-off some today. Money will be looking for a place to go...
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Re: From the floor August 18
Mike-
I brought this up on another post but thought I would run it on the "from the floor" to get the largest viewership possible-
Is there any way to get data on China's corn harvest? Does anyone even know the total acreage? Seems to me if they are producing 20% of the worlds corn at some fraction of the US production rate it must be a large, large area. Any guesses as to the yield of an acre in China? 70 bu? 80?
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Re: From the floor August 18
NCcorntrader,
I'm hearing the wheat market is building a big bullish story. The drought and flooding is creating a scenario of a lot less wheat in the U.S. The corn crop is less than stellar. I'm hearing average yield estimates as low as 144 bu./acre. Poor soybean pod-counts are coming in. Katy bar the door! If China keeps coming into this corn market, $8.50 corn may not be high enough.
On the other hand, I've noticed that demand has been weakening. The export sales numbers were weak for corn and soybeans.
Meanwhile, Brazil's safrihna corn crop is harvested and although it survived the frost better than some expected, it is smaller than first estimates, according to a Brazilian contact.
Mike
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Re: From the floor August 18
Mike-
You seem to have gotten REALLY bullish the last couple of days. I guess we will see. A lot of emphasis seems to be getting placed on the Sept 12 report. I just noticed that report comes out on a Monday. Should make for an interesting prior Friday!
Patrick
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Re: From the floor August 18
NCcorntrader:
USDA data shows China planting 77.04 million acres to corn in 2009/10, 80 million acres last year, and projected at 81.5 million acres this year.
Their yield was 81.12 bpa in 2009/10, 85 bpa in 2010/11, and is projected at 86 bpa this year.
They produced 6.22 billion bushels of corn in 2009/10, 6.81 billion bushels in 2010/11, and right at 7 billion bushels this year (projected).
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Re: From the floor August 18
Thanks floyd-
I didnt even realize USDA tracks those numbers. Duh.
NC
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Re: From the floor August 18
I believe these are numbers from USDA's Attache in China. But, the government of China doesn't put out this kind of information. Nice catch floyd and thanks for sharing.
Mike
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Re: From the floor August 18
With around 80 million acres it makes you wonder what they would produce if they would farm 21st century style instead of early to mid 20 century. If I rember right their crop climate is much like the dakotas take the average state yields of around 130 for both states together and they would have plenty of corn.
st
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Re: From the floor August 18
There is also a rice story out there regarding conflicting figures.