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Senior Reader

Re: From the floor August 2

I agree with Mike, your comments add another piece to our marketing puzzle and are greatly appreciated.  Thanks.

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Senior Reader

Re: From the floor August 2

Mike,

Living in Japan I enjoy your blog to keep me updated.  Keep up the great work!

 

My market note:  From the heat, humidity, and rain here on Kyushu there should be a huge rice crop!!!

 

Good night,

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor August 2

Mike, have you heard any specifics on the drought impacts to Russian Corn?

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 2

Mike...... It would be my uneducated guess that the Russians did that sale a while ago..... It is my thinking that they are trying to talk the market down so as when they buy it is at lower prices...... FWIW..... We will see...... p-oed

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Contributor

Re: From the floor August 2

Mike,

 

I appreciate your information and find it helpful.  Keep up the good work!

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 2

soilsurvey,

 

Good to hear from you. I was just curious, what's your blink reaction to this late July-early August explosion in the markets? How do you plan to handle this rally? I know you're weighing whether it's just getting started, in the middle, or hitting the back end. But, what moves, if any, are you considering or that your market guru is advising?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 2

I am finishing up the last of my 2009 corn sales, at the four dollar july 2011 mark, and waiting to price any more new crop. I have some old HTA fall 2010 contracts in place for about 20-25% of my 2010 production that should net me about $4.50 for corn, and a shade over $12 on soybeans. If this rally approaches those levels, I will move to 50% sold before harvest.  If the market moves to the $6 mark on corn, and $15 mark on soybeans, I will go to 75%.

 

I don't want to be the farmer standing in line dumping corn that is complaining about how he can't make any money farming. I just priced fall fertilizer and NH3 is back close to $600 a ton, VT3 corn is still $200 a bag, and they are not giving away any shiny new trucks or tractors, either. As long as all those inputs are sky high, I want the sun, the moon, and the stars for what I am selling, too.

 

A good chunk of this rally is just keeping pace with the dollar's demise.

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Contributor

Re: From the floor August 2

Grain producers should view this rally as a gift.  As you may remember I was lopsided big short the grains going into the June 30 report and felt good about that.  The report was a game changer and thus I needed to reevaluate my stake and consider damage control that appeared to be needed.  That has worked fine but we may be in the area where I will lean back to the short side.  All of this is said with the belief that I will most likely have record yields of both corn and beans on our farm this year.  Current prices and projected yields equal good margins of profitability for the farm.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 2

Farmers are maybe too quick to take a chance for modest profits, and run with them. How about the Saudi Arabians...they would be making plenty of money with $40 per barrel oil...yet they gladly take the $75 that the market is offering.

 

WIth the decline of purchasing power of the American Dollar, I think my grain is worth more than some IOU from a bank right now and I would rather have bins with grain in them than money in the bank.

 

But, maybe shiny new equipment and trucks might look better to me than binned grain. ( Smiles)

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Contributor

Re: From the floor August 2

Yes, from St. Louis south, 100 degree actual temps. Don't think it will hurt corn much though-it's already toast. Large tracks in WKY didn't set ears, many more didn't pollinate. Too many brown fields this time of year. Sure, there are some green fields, some may even do 'good'. If not under irrigation, it won't be 'really good'.

 

Full season beans pod fill, NT beans blooming and setting pods-still green but many stressed.

 

Jim

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