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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor August 22

Slideshow: Midwest field reports and Southern corn yields are coming in right and left this week. See Photos.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 9 1/4 cents higher at $7.34 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract settled 16 3/4 cents higher at $13.85 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures ended 4 3/4 cents higher at $7.66. The Dec. soyoil futures settled $0.23 higher at $56.18 The Dec. soymeal futures closed $8.80 per short ton higher at $369.70.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.23 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials closed 37 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 5 1/4 cents higher at $7.30 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 12 1/2 cents higher at $13.81. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 8 3/4 cents higher at $7.70. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.13 higher at $56.08 The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $5.60 per short ton higher at $366.50.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 20 points.


As the farm markets remain strong, one analyst says that three issues are driving the market today.

"One, weekend rains were much lighter than expected with coverage of 50% or less area in the Midwest area versus 70% expected and lighter overall totals. Two, we have a lower dollar encouraging exports, higher crude oil pulling up corn based ethanol and a higher stocks index. The third issue is a drier forecast for the Midwest this week with coverage of 50% or less with rain totals of ,25 to 1.00 inches. Traders also expect a crop tour to unveil their thoughts that the corn and bean crop is smaller than recent USDA reports suggest. It’s the last full trading week of the month so expect funds to take profits off the rallies also be ware of turn around Tuesday after two days of long profits made may see profit taking on Tuesday."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 11 cents higher at $7.36 The Nov. soybean contract opened 15 1/4 cents higher at $13.83. The Dec. wheat futures opened 14 cents higher at $7.75 1/2. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.58 higher at $56.53 The Dec. soymeal futures opened $5.30 per short ton higher at $366.20.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.78 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 144 points.

 

You name it, it's bullish for the farm markets today.

Mike

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At 7am:

Fundamentally, I hear that a lower corn yield, a dry 10-day crop-weather outlook, wheat output concerns in the EU, Australia and drought concerns causing lower upcoming U.S. wheat acres are all underpinning this market.


If you like technical corn trading talk, you'll like this:

 

Tom White, a FutureRoad.net and CME Group corn pit trader says, "The fact that there are positive reversals on the longer-term (weekly) charts still keeps the general bias to the long side.  Shorter-term charts, however, appear to be running out of momentum and make it more difficult to sustain the long side on a day to day basis.  We have completed recent five wave patterns and also must respect the possibility that weakness in correlated markets will eventually take its toll on the grains.  The market never did get to 746 (or 701.4 on the downside) last week; that latter area does not apply to trade this week.  But, we still must either make a move toward that 746 area or begin to fill in a downside gap which was left from a week ago Thursday (688.6).  There is also a smaller gap which we can consider if the market does show weakness at 714 (i.e. with Friday’s gap opening, there is a gap from its low at 719 to 714 on the open outcry charts).  We don’t have a strong opinion for Monday’s direction.

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn up 8-9 cents, soybeans up 10-12 cents, and wheat up 9-10 cents.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$1.04 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading rebounding from last week's plunge lower. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is expected to make a speech today and the Wall Streeters are listening. 

World Markets=Lower. Recession fears are gaining strength.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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8 Replies
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor August 22

Thanks for the laugh on the market techno speak. Jaded as I am I can usually find a laugh every day in the markety, but that one was especially good! I think a simple 'What me worry' could have easily covered the same ground.

 

As for global wheat, quality is still a concern. Apparently up to 60% of Ukrainian wheat is feed quality due to rains, and now Britian is getting the same on the remainder of their harvest. Initial Russian reports are calling into question expected quality and quantity. The really huge quality question has to be Canadian and N Dakota HRS.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor August 22

Palouser,

 

You're welcome. What do you think, will the funds step in and take profits on these rallies at the end of the month?

 

Mike

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor August 22

I have to say I pay no attention to funds whatsoever. My horizon is based on longer term trends vs any tactical moves funds might take. When I actually am on the verge of a sale then they can mess with me a bit but i can usually adjust if need be.

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NABFarmer
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor August 22

From the looks of it so far the crop here in Canada is relatively late, sounds like some of the Southern parts of the country have made up some ground in terms of that but we are late here in the North.  Probably need to get to the third week of September with no frost to avoid large amounts of the wheat going to feed grade, typical first frost here is September 10th.  Cereal crops are generally good, canola where I am is poor, worst canola on this farm in fifty years, 60 acres worked down and should have another 200 worked down next week after insurance takes a look, lots of canola being harvested with the disc.  Fourteen inches of rain in the month of June took its toll.

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor August 22

I was just listening to the early morning report from the Pro Farmer Tour,,,,,They have a Chinese group with them this year in the western tour. 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: From the floor August 22

Maybe the Chinese can help them count correctly....     Smiley Happy

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Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: From the floor August 22

...Whaddya want to bet the Chinese get 'em drunk and hungover so they see double and count more rows and kernals..and more pods?..LOL

 

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor August 22

I surely hope you get what you need. Just started winter wheat - three weeks late. It looks like the spring wheat will make it.

 

I talked to a farmer just east of me against the foothills. He figures he is going to get shut out if he doesn't get his dryer going and expand its capacity (dryers are rare here, and even more rarely used). Our  season is short due to elevation, 2600'. He got little of his spring ground seeded this year. I shouldn't have any trouble. 5 miles can make a huge difference.

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