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Veteran Advisor

From the floor August 23

Slideshow: Midwest field reports and Southern corn yields are coming in right and left this week. See Photos.


At the close:

The Dec. corn futures closed 9 cents higher at $7.43 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract settled 12 cents higher at $13.97 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures finished 18 1/2 cents higher at $7.84 1/2. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.03 higher at $56.21. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $5.80 per short ton higher at $375.50.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.27 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 275 points.


The stock market has surged since the earthquake in Virginia.


Tim Hannagan, sent a note to customers saying, "There is talk of the heat dome entering back into the Midwest during the Labor Day weekend. Regarding wheat, a Tuesday close over the 7.60 key resistance on December wheat making it a technical buy on Monday's charts. Funds continue to sweat over the heat in the Southwest winter wheat states threatening planting season in September. Trend-following funds have gone from short 54,000 contracts three weeks ago to 45,000 this week. Should they continue to buy back the remaining 45,000 contracts it could pull wheat up to 8.75. Careful this week, as it's the last full week of trading for August and funds are fat with long profits and due to go to the bank as they always do. "




At 1:15pm:

Earthquake hits the East Coast. A tweet out of Washington area says there is concern that the Washington Monument may be leaning. There are no official confirmations of that. Virginia officials have reported that state has had 200 smaller earthquakes, with techtonic plates in the area. The epicenter was 39 miles east of Charlottsville, VA. This 5.9'er was the biggest since 1897. No threat of a sunami along the East Coast is the latest. There will be some aftershocks and that is the concern right now. It was a shallow earthquake, officials say. The earthquake was felt in Toronto, Canada and even in Ohio and down into Georgia. Because the crust of the earth is older in the East Coast vs. other parts of the country, this quake could be felt in further distances, a Virginia seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey is reporting.


In addition, two nuclear power plants near the epicenter have been shutdown. No emergencies there but the plants have been shutdown.


The U.S. stock market fell off its highs since the quake.




At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading  6 cents higher at $7.40 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 9 1/4 cents higher at $13.94 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 13 1/4 cents higher at $7.79 1/4. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.22 higher at $56.40. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $4.00 per short ton higher at $373.70.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.84 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 196 points.


One analyst says, "Well, the higher corn open gave way to a drop on the day's high. Soybeans and wheat drooped off their highs as well. But, last night's bullish crop condition reports and stronger outside markets pulled us back up. A more measurable correction won't occur until we see that big down day in crude and stocks which always pops up."


Responding to a price call request, the analyst says, "Of course, we will see an 8 in front of corn and 14 beans but corn will wait for the Sept. USDA Report."




At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 3 3/4 cents higher at $7.38 1 /4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 5 cents higher at $13.90 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures opened 5 cents higher at $7.71. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.60 higher at $56.12. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $2.10 per short ton higher at $371.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 120 points.




Market Noise:

--Egypt buys 180,000 metric tons of Russian wheat Tuesday.

--Japan needs to buy corn. Apparently, Japan buyers are waiting for sub $7 corn.

--Japan is done buying wheat until October.

--Egypt wants to buy wheat for Oct. shipment from multiple origins.

--Iraq is looking at buying 50,000 mt of wheat from any origin.

--USDA says the U.S. pork and beef freezers are emptying out faster than poultry.

--A lot of talk about whether QE3 is coming to a bank near you. What do you think Big Ben?




At 6:30am:
Early calls: Corn up 5-7 cents, soybeans up 10-12 cents, and wheat up 5-7 cents. On Monday afternoon, USDA dropped the corn and soybean progress ratings by 3% and 2% respectively.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.00 higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher on better than expected China manufacturing data Tuesday.
World Markets=Higher. The world investors are banking on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke introducing ideas of a possible third stimulus package for the U.S. economy, during a Friday speech.
More in a minute,


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12 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor August 23

Great rains last night and this morning in northern Ia and northern Il.  


My take on why the corn market isn't higher.


Quote from than story:


Trader Dennis Smith of Archer Financial Services in Chicago cautioned that corn yields might be better than some recent forecasts.

“It’s my opinion we just experienced a much better growing season than nearly 10 bushels per acre below trend line,” Smith said.

   end quote.


Traders don't believe the crop is in the 150's.  There is still that perception out there that we cry all year about yields and then at harvest say,  "its better than we expected". 


Well, the hand will soon be played when the combines roll.  My quess is we are somewhere between the two camps.

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Senior Advisor

It makes you............

wanna pull your hair out..........its not even about how the markets react or what they think anymore..........this "head in the sand attitude" about this crop is sickening......


we went from a March attitude of needing 92M plus acres and a 162 treandline an August attitude of, well it rained alittle in a few areas on the 23rd so that ought to save a sub 92M acres crop that is hovering around 150 yield...........


guys, this is not the sight of record yields..........and shelling corn in August and early September as far north as I hear its going to happen, with a later planted crop...............THAT DOES NOT EQUAL A GOOD CROP............


Japan can wish in one hand and do the unmentionable in the other and see what happens............END USERS HAD A CHANCE TO BUY CHEAPER GRAIN SEVERAL TIMES THIS YEAR..............BUT NO ONE WANTED TO LISTEN AND BELIEVE THIS WAS THE REAL sympathy here............


o and it appears soya are fighting back, again they are a sleeper............this soya crop is getting shorter by the day........ligher soils are already turning, and yes thats in the garden spots............unless you are farther south, ITS GAME OVER...........its August 23rd...........summer is over...........things will be shutting down anyday...........those little 1/2 inch pods look nice right now, but if you normally harvest soya around October 1st.............that means in 10 days your soya will start turning..........doubt a 1/2 inch pod sets much of anything............RAIN OR NO RAIN...........ITS AUGUST 23rd.......GAME OVER..........


I know I know.........end of rant.......


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Honored Advisor

Re: It makes you............

Game is just ration the crops.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: It makes you............

Rain missed me to the north.  Tiles now either dry or at a trickle.  A couple of rains now will make all the difference.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: It makes you............

No sympathy from me, folks.  I just chopped half a circle of irrigated corn.  Insurance appraiser said it would yield 44 bu./acre--yes you read right.  That was IRRIGATED corn.  Then he told me about another circle he had appraised that day at 10 bu/acre.  Seems it was so hot around here, that the stuff didn't pollenate well, if at all.....


This is not dryland corn country, but some folks try.  All the dryland corn has been chopped, baled, or abandoned a month ago.


We probably don't have enough irrigated corn acres to affect national yields much, but what we have around here IS NOT GOOD.  I think that 100 bu. irrigated corn will be hard to find.


The view from my back door.    KenJ

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor August 23

Dec Corn is near record highs at the start of Harvest but there are no problems.

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Senior Advisor

Thanks for the laugh Jim........

Do the streets melt when it rains in Candyland..............
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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor August 23

Some of the rain in northern Iowa was offset by high winds which flattened thousands of acres of corn and battered beans.  Brother in law found some stalks leaned, some stalks flat and some stalks broken off below the ear.  The cattle are going to eat well.  Still a lot of Iowa that could use a rain badly.  Way too much corn turning and beans wilting in NW Iowa.


That is a funny quote by the Archer Financial Services trader.   He doesn't understand how we could be 10 bushels under trend with the weather we have had.  OK, we started out record wet in the Eastern Corn Belt and just very very wet in the Western Corn belt.  The western corn belt got planted with a 2 week delay in addition to prevented plant claims and every wet spot drowning out.  The far eastern corn belt was 2-6 weeks behind in many places from the wet spring.  Then wet april, may and june gave way to record heat and dryness in many areas with record drought in the southern plains.  Next we have extended periods of dryness in the central corn belt that is providing a poor finish for the crops that had the best chance of being big.  All we would need for this to be a serious disaster would be an early frost.   The trader looks at things and thinks how did we take 10 bushels off trend and I am astounded we have only taken 10 bushels off trend.  I still think it is more like 12-14 bushels off trend, but a good finish in the east could help.  IMO USDA's 153 is if every thing goes great until harvest; we're already chipping away at that with continued dryness.


PS If there are traders who think this crop is getting bigger than maybe we will race higher when reality arrives.  I thought the trade was just very comfortable with a 153 crop and current prices rationing demand.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: It makes you............

It would seem that so far Pro Farmer agrees with you. They are finding things worse than expected. It will be interesting to see how they rate Illinois. It always looked to me like they spent little or no time in northern Illinois. Northern Illinois is supposed to have some of the crops in the state this year.
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