From the floor August 3

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec corn futures closed 1 3/4 cents lower at $4.02 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract settled 5 3/4 cents higher at $10.15 3/4. The Sep. wheat futures ended 12 1/2 cents lower at $6.80 3/4. Dec. soymeal is $2.10 per short ton higher at $289.50, and Dec. soyoil is 53 points higher at $41.70.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 21 points.

Mike

-----------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec corn futures are 1 cent lower at $4.03 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 2 1/2 cents lower at $10.07 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures are 12 cents lower at $6.80 1/2. Dec. soymeal is $2.10 per short ton lower at $287.20, and Dec. soyoil is 30 points higher at $41.47.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.95 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 18 points.

One analyst says, "Recent run-ups have the 'longs' fat with profits a little nervous.  But strong demand to start the week with China in for corn and beans with lower crop condition ratings Monday, has a floor under the market.  With 47% of the bean crop yet to enter the key pod-setting stage, traders are unwilling to remove too much weather premium, just yet."

Yet another analyst says, "Corn is off the day's low of 5 cents lower. In our view the corn setback is healthy and setbacks should be bought toward $3.85-3.90. Higher highs and higher lows is an uptrend and that is what we are seeing."

Mike

---------

At the open:

At the open, the Dec corn futures are 4 cents lower at $4.00 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 7 cents lower at $10.03. The Sep. wheat futures are 8 1/4 cents lower at $6.85. Dec. soymeal is $2.30 per short ton lower at $287.00, and Dec. soyoil is 8 points lower at $41.09.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.39 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 45 points.

Mike

----------

At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn down 1-2 cents, soybeans down 4-6 cents, and wheat down 8-10 cents.The  outside markets are all supportive for Tuesday's grain trade. Despite the USDA Crop Progess report showing conditions falling a bit, the corn and soybean averages are still at historic highs.

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading sharply lower.

Crude oil=Trading $0.35 per barrel higher.

Dollar=Trading lower.

Wall Street= Seen opening flat as weak earnings are announced for Proctor & Gamble and Dow Chemical.

World Markets=Mixed.

There is quite the rain event in Chicago, this morning.

More in a minute,

Mike

[jec22]

After reading your comments that we are trading a 163-164 corn crop yesterday, I did a little research.  Since IA yields will be all over the place ,  I thought maybe some guys that have done some scouting would be able to make a guess how this year will stack up to previous years.

Here is a county by county and district by district breakdown of the last ten years of yield data for IA.  Last year the nation hit 165.  Can we do it again? 

There is some great looking corn north of I80 in IA, so it is enough better than last year to offset the losses south of I80?

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a1-12.pdf

[SouthWestOhio]

Here's the 2009 Ohio county corn yield breakdown.  Our county Montgomery was 121 in 2008 and 169 last year.  Our farm was 136 and 196 respectively.  This year we are guessing 155-160 on our farm (less if we don't get a little rain soon).

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Ohio/Publications/County_Estimates/CORN09.txt

[marketeye]

jec22,

I did find out today that at least one analyst has released pre-USDA report crop estimates. They look mostly bullish, don't you think?

Production:

Corn yield=162.8 vs. USDA previous of 163.5. About a 225 million bushel reduction.

Soybean yield=42.4 vs. USDA previous 42.9. About a 45 million bushel reduction.

Carryover

Corn=1.200 billion bushels vs. USDA previous of 1.373 billion.

Soybeans=345 million bushels vs. USDA previous of 360 million.

Wheat=985 million bushels vs. 1.093 billion bushels.

Mike

[jec22]

Thanks for the report.  Was interesting reading the county by county breakdowns in Ohio verses Iowa.  I didn't realize Ohio had so many counties with such outstanding yields in 2009, several in the 190+ range. I live in the Central IA district...yields will be all over the place.Northern part of that district looks really good, Southern half might struggle to make 150 average-depends on the next few weeks, though another 3-5 inches last night we did not need.  Too many bottoms damaged and wet spots on hillsides long gone.  I just hope we dry out by the time the combine rolls, the wet spots here have not dried out yet..Still sprayers getting stuck.

I am really going to go out on a limb here....But could we have already put in the lows for the year on cash corn? 

[dapper7]

jec, i believe we have seen the lows. they might get tested. north ia will have to wait on his ldps! d7