From the floor August 6

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec corn futures settled 2 cents higher at $4.20. The Nov. soybean contract closed 4 1/2 cents higher at $10.33 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures ended down the daily 'limit' of 60 cents at $7.25 3/4. Dec. soymeal settled $0.50 per short ton higher at $295.90. The Dec. soyoil closed 12 points higher at $42.12.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.32 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 119 points.

One analyst says, "Weeks end profit-taking in wheat has us down the 60 cent limit but corn and beans are off only  marginally as corn and beans see the hottest and driest 7 day period ahead now of the season. Additionaly traders looking ahead to next week expect a potentially bullish U.S.D.A. crop report Thursday.  Remember corn and bean profits and risk are not what wheat had."

Looking ahead to next week, the analyst says, "When we enter Monday U.S. and foreign weather will be viewed as friendly to pricing as well as a potentially bullish crop report Thursday. But keep in mind the over bought conditions and longs in the market fat with profits will surely take some profits ahead of the report. If everything holds as we see it without any changes we should trade higher Monday into Tuesday with profit taking Wednesday."

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec corn futures are 4 1/4 cents lower at $4.13 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 2 3/4 cents higher at $10.31 3/4. The Sep. wheat futures are 45 3/4 cents lower at $7.40. Dec. soymeal is $0.40 per short ton lower at $295.00.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.92 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 141 points.

Mike

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At the open, the Dec corn futures are 2 1/4 cents lower at $4.15 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 1 cent lower at $10.29. The Sep. wheat futures are 2 1/4 cents higher at $7.89. Dec. soymeal is $0.10 per short ton higher at $295.50.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 40 points.

The markets are taking a breather. After screaming higher markets this week, Friday is a day to take some profits, square up positions ahead of the weekend, and as a result the markets are calmer. Plus, you have to feed a bullish market each day. Other than pre-report crop estimates flowing out, which most are bearish, there isn't much fresh, bullish news.

Mike

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At 8:25am:

CORRECTION: The CME Group is reporting the wheat daily trading limit will remain 60¢, It will not be bumped to 90¢ as I noted earlier. Why? I'm trying to find that out now. Meanwhile, here are some updated Early Calls: corn 2-3 lower, soybeans mixed, and wheat up 10-12 cents.

Mike

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At 6:25am:

Early calls: Corn down 2-3 cents, soybeans down 1-2 cents, and wheat up 8-10 cents. Remember, wheat has a 90¢ trading limit today. The outside markets are not supportive of the grain markets. Wheat could pull up corn and soybeans. Watch for updated early calls closer to the open.

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading sharply mixed.

Crude oil=Trading $0.24 per barrel lower.

Dollar=Trading higher.

Wall Street= Seen opening flat as investors await the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll jobs report, this morning.

World Markets=Mixed.

More in a minute,

Mike

[swia]

Mike is there any talk with traders as to whether South America will increase corn and soy acres next year given the rally we have just had going into their planting season? 

[zman343]

I think the rule is you need 2 contract months in the same crop year to close at limit up/down in order to increase the limits for the next session.

Happened to notice open interest in wheat yesterday only up 4800 contracts, on a limit up move doesn't suggest alot of new buyers.

I like Russia's little move hinting that the export ban could change based on harvest results.  Guess it could be shorter or longer.  Overnight action has the market looking a little tired and I think going into the weekend profit taking will rule the day.  Wheat market is so fickle I think we could hit limit down on low volume if people head for the exits.

Also, dollar is getting creamed today, euro rallying.  I guess after the bad employment report people assume the Fed goes into more QE.  Because we really need to keep those interest rates low LOL.  Banks aren't lending, we will see that this afternoon when they release the consumer credit.  QE is useless.  It will be more of a factor in Europe and when that happens the dollar will rally because the Euro will go back below 1.20.

[marketeye]

According to the CME Group, here is a clarification as to why the wheat futures did not expand its limits today. "The decision to expand limits is based on the closing range activity of the first five months of Wheat. In order for any of the five months to qualify for limit expansion they must be limit bid or offered at the end of the closing range. It takes two separate contract months, limit bid or offered, to make a contract eligible for expansion.  

The first five months of Wheat futures settles to CME Globex activity. Today, the WU was limit bid 7856b at the end of the closing range on CME Globex. The next month WZ was not limit bid on CME Globex at the end of the closing range. It would have to be 8154b. The market in WZ on CME Globex at the end of the closing range was 8140/8144. The offer was a penny lower than the limit price of 8154. Therefore, WZ did not qualify to be considered for limit expansion. No other months were close to limit on CME Globex.

WU and WZ in the pit both closed limit up. But again we only refer to CME Globex for limit and settlement derivation."

Mike