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Senior Contributor

From the floor December 3

At the close:

The March corn futures settled 18 cents higher at $5.73 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract finished 20 1/2 cents higher at $13.00 1/4. The March wheat futures settled 30 1/2 cents higher at $7.79. The Jan. soyoil futures contract closed $0.61 higher at $53.45. The Jan soymeal futures closed $5.90 per short ton higher at $351.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.23 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 13 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures are 10 1/4 cents higher at $5.65 3/4. The Jan. soybean contract is 13 1/4 cents higher at $12.93. The July 2011 soybean contract traded over $13.00, this morning. The March wheat futures are 29 cents higher at $7.77 1/2. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is $0.61 higher at $53.45. The Jan soymeal futures $3.30 per short ton higher at $349.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.48 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 27 points.

 

The higher unemployment numbers, released Friday, have sent the Dow lower. On the grains, wheat is supported by a flurry of buying from people caught short, crop-quality and weather concerns. Soybeans are feeding off of the wheat gains and demand. Corn has wheat as wind beneath its wings and demand support.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

Wheat is up 28 1/2¢, soybeans up 13 1/4¢, corn up 10 1/4¢. What a rally, huh?

 

I forgot to mention that China is now saying they haven't cut any deal with Argentina, on corn imports. This idea started with Argentina's President saying the two countries will be trading corn in 2011. China's folks say Friday that no deal is in the works. Hmm.... who do you believe? This is a headscratcher.


 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures opened 7 1/2 cents higher at $5.63. The Jan. soybean contract opened 6 1/4 cents higher at $12.85 1/4. The March wheat futures opened 19 1/2 cents higher at $7.68. The Jan. soyoil futures contract opened $0.12 higher at $52.94. The Jan soymeal futures opened $2.10 per short ton higher at $348.10.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 13 points.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

One trader says, "Corn and beans could and should be left in the dust. Australia is now a virtual disaster with no rains in sight for the US HRW crop. The funds are short wheat, making it doubly explosive. I love wheat in all respects."

 

Mike

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At 7:25am:


Wow! A lot to digest this morning. Here's a grocery list of items for the market's consideration:


--Due to weather, some are cutting South America's soybean production. Argentina is expected to get much-needed rains in the next three days.

--Wheat prices are really surging, with some seeing Chicago going over $8.

--Japan seeks 193,417 metric tons of U.S. wheat Friday. Also, Taiwan is in buying U.S. wheat.

--China says its 2010 grain production will be a record 546,410 million metric tons, up 2.9%.

--China is also announcing increased grain production in its Northeast and it will tighten regulation on imports and exports of major grains in that area.

--Japan announced a new case of high-risk bird-flu. Thousands of chickens have been culled from one farm already.

 

Mike

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At 7am:


Early calls: Corn up 5-7 cents, soybeans 3-5 higher and wheat up 17-19 cents.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.10 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading steady ahead of payroll figures.

World  Markets=Mixed.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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4 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor December 3

Do the traders think the new unemployment number of 9.8 will effect the grains? 

We are treading on thin ice.  More and more weather problems, which lead to lower grain supplies, higher prices.  More and more people than can't afford to buy food and fuel, which is also rising.  Seems like the recipe for a bubble...I just have no clue on the timing...months, years..decade?

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 3

One trader says that indirectly the Friday payroll numbers do impact grains by their impact first on the U.S. Dollar. In his own words, "Payroll data not hugely bullish as it will hurt demand ideas, but the dollar is lower so that supports overall I think.  Fund money has been a little short in Chicago, but long in KC and Minn so I don't think that is the real driver.  They are buying, sure, but lots of people are buying.  We are on very thin ice with wheat, the situation could get to be really something if weather trends continue as they are.  I am not so sure there is a bubble forming yet, though."

 

Hope this helps jec22,

 

Mike

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Contributor

Re: From the floor December 3

Is there any chatter about the ethanol taxes about to expire

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 3

So, now, wheat is the darling of the futures trade.  What changed to make it happen?  In the new world of volatile markets influenced by index funds and erratic weather events, the U.S.'s billion bushel surplus is no longer in the bargain basement.  If anyone had looked into their crystal ball three months ago, the signs of this were already there.  The sad thing is as wheat soars to new yearly highs, the grain trade keeps a chunk of it in a wider basis, even though the markets are saying "shortage coming!"

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