cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Senior Contributor

From the floor December 31

At mid-session:

The March corn futures are 8 cents higher at $6.24. The March soybean contract is 19 cents higher at $13.95. The March wheat futures are 5 cents higher at $7.89 3/4. The March soybean meal futures are $5.10 higher per short ton at $374.20. The March soyoil futures are $0.47 higher at $57.77.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.65 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 8 points.

 

Reminder: The markets close at 12-Noon.

 

One analyst says, "We sure are higher!  The US Dollar weakness is causing a lot of the buying seen in almost all markets today and in all of the grains and oilseeds.  The Argentine weather looks dry and hot for the next 10 days or more and this has added to buying in corn and soybeans.  I think mostly spec buying so far, and I am picking up a little selling on the rally from Brazil.  But it looks like we will finish the year on a very strong note and then will spend the weekend watching weather in South America as well as everywhere else.  Wheat just a follower today, I have seen nothing special there."

 

Yet another analyst says, "Funds are getting a jump on the new year and buying the entire board. Also, a drier forecast for Argentina next week is pushing up prices."


Mike

----------

At 7:16am:

One analyst says that some Argentine estimates have dropped the soybean crop from 52 down to 48 million metric tons.

 

Mike

--------

At 6:45am:


Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 2-3 cents higher.


Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.37 lower.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen opening higher.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific higher, Europe stocks lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

 

0 Kudos
9 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 31

Mike,

 

Happy New Year and I hope you had a nice holiday in Chi Town, the Windy City, the smelly onion or any of the other cognomens for your place of work.  Don't  you wish you were back on the farm?

 

Thanks for all the  tips, stories, insights and palaver you have regaled us with this year.  What other field of endeavaor is as changing and exhilirating as marketing?  Some other adjectives sometimes apply, as well.

 

I sold a load of corn for $6 delivered to ADM in Cedar Rapids for the last week Jan.  Don't have a good reason, just felt good to hear the 6.  I hope to do better with the rest.  So much for my marketing plans.  Smiley Happy

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 31

Jim,

 

Thanks for the kind words. It's my pleasure to bring information to people that can really use it. My goal is to Keep Millions Advised. I say it only because it's been said before, "Today's markets are the most exciting to watch and follow than ever in history." And, you know what, there doesn't seem to be any end in sight for 2011. I'm being told by some very bullish traders that soybeans could exceed the 2008 prices. And don't say it out loud, but there are scenarios out there that have beans going to $20. I hestitate to even write that and it seems irresponsible, almost, to even throw that out there. But, remember, this is what I'm being told is possible, it's not my opinion.

 

Anyway, Happy New Year Jim. Be safe, it's slick in your neck of the woods today.

 

Good luck in 2011,

 

Mike

Tags (1)
0 Kudos
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor December 31

Marketeye,   Happy holidays to you and yours!   Your post is one of the first I go to each morning.

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 31

JRfrom OR,

 

Thanks, I do appreciate it. How did you come out, this year, with your marketing? I'm told that January is a good time to look back at how you did with avg. market prices and devise your plan for the next year. Will you do the same in 2011 or change things up a bit/

 

Thanks for sharing,

 

Mike

0 Kudos
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor December 31

Happy New Year Mike.

If 011 is anything like the last of 010...heck, there will rarely to never be another down day.

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 31

I too thank you for bringing news from the trading floor. It's a very valuable perspective.

 

I think we have some very serious marketing hurdles to go over this year and, depending on the outcome of those, $20 beans isn't out of the question. Historically it isn't anywhere near a record since $7 beans in '75 (?) computed to $35 in today's currency.

 

I believe this winter to have more potential for explosive events than 2007-8. Whereas before it was triggered more by wheat, it is now arguably a more wide spread issue in corn and beans, mainly due to the gargantuan and historical appetite of a country (China) influencing the market. A failure to keep up with production trends in corn and beans in N America would be the beginning of events that could shake the market to its foundations. I surmise that the CBOT is not up to the task of regulating the signals and flows that could take place.

 

The indications of the need for up to 13 milliom more acres in US production, mainly corn and beans, means the market has never been more susceptible to an 'off year' for production. The Russian grain deal was not recognized until it was far too late. We are uneasy with conditions in the future. This is a set up that is extremely risky for the entire globe. We don't have a choice but to do our best. I am uncomfortable because I'm not sure we are ready for a turn in events that creates pandemonium w/o a clear path to stability.

 

And yet I'm looking forward to it all. This is my game.

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

PS

If the markets get carried away this year it would be invaluable to have producer/hedger ability to deliver on contracts to control the exhuberance of the spec side. Since this is not going to happen then there is the possibility that we will get to see a market wreck. We need to all hope we have very good production in N America this year.

 

There may be a particular danger in over committing crop for '11 because the down side of being short could be extreme.

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

I agree 100% on the downside danger of overcommittment

I think some farmers, and advisors , are slow to figure out changes in the environment. Crop insurance, for example...I cringe everytime I see some market advisor telling farmers to sell only the insured bushels. Actually, no bushels are totally insured anymore, since there is now a limit of roughly double the spring price in place, if I am informed correctly.

 

Granted, if the 2011 spring price is $5 to $6 on corn, it will take historic highs in the fall  to put you in any danger of a big loss if there are widespread crop failures, and corn goes ballistic and you are one of the affected producers that fail to grow a crop. And maybe thinking of a "sky falling down" event is not very good business.

 

But, I am sure there are producers that oversold the 2010 crop for what are now modest prices, and will have to replace those bushels with $6 ones, or possibly even a whole lot higher. That has to really hurt.

 

Great opportunities to make fortunes in farming these days. You can make a large fortune if you make the right choices, and you can make a small fortune by starting out with a large one, and making the wrong choices.

 

0 Kudos
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor December 31

marketeye,

 

I did some things right and some things wrong.

 

I had way too much alfalfa hay to sell to the dairies at somewhat depressed prices, and I'm taking it on the chin in a dairy bankruptsy.  Here in the Klamath Basin, on the border of Ca. and Or., we had another limited irrigation season due to drought and endangered species, so our crops were light.  It'll be another year of scratching by till next years crop.

 

On the plus side, I locked in feed needs by buying the board in the summer after it occured to me that weather was beginning to threaten and that another record crop was being priced into the board.

 

I'm bullish 2011, but more cautious than usual.  I'm trying to get out of bed with the dairies as much as possible while they're sorting their issues out.

0 Kudos