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Senior Contributor

From the floor December 6

At the close:

The March corn futures settled 5 1/2 cents lower at $5.68. The Jan. soybean contract closed 11 3/4 cents lower at $12.88 1/2. The March wheat futures settled 14 cents higher at $7.93. The Jan. soyoil futures contract ended $0.09 higher at $53.54. The Jan soymeal futures closed $5.10 per short ton lower at $346.50.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 2 points.

 

One analyst says that wheat, the market leader today, is set up with big world crop concerns. "Wheat is not riding up a strong demand pace but fear that Australias disastrous wheat harvest, further adding to tight world high protein wheat ending stocks for human consumption, may continue. We have heard talk that if rains continue the amount of wheat that could fall into feed quality wheat is 30 to 60% of their crop. After this past growing season, world wide being so poor, any news leading to our 2011 crop gets paid mega attention. It's more than just overall production of wheat, but production and availability of high protein quality wheat that miller's must have for the baking of breads, snack cakes, cereals and pastas. So, we enter the new year with tight high quality wheat stocks and big demand for low quality wheat for the feed ration. It may take until early spring when winter crops around the world break dormancy to get any good news," he says.


Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futuresare 8 cents lower at $5.65 1/2. The Jan. soybean contract is 15 1/4 cents lower at $12.85. The March wheat futures are unchanged at $7.79. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is $0.10 lower at $53.44. The Jan soymeal futures are $6.00 per short ton lower at $345.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 17 points.

 

One analyst says, "Corn and soybeans are trading a little lower on forecasts for some beneficial showers late this week or this weekend in southern Brazil and Argentina, plus a stronger Dollar.  Any support from the sales to China in soybeans and to 'unknown' in corn kind of got wiped out by the dollar strength first and the export inspections later.  The markets have held support, left from the trade late last week in both corn and soybeans and I think these areas can hold all day.  The sellers seem unwilling to press here, and the buyers must be feeling like they are getting a solid chance to get some near term pricing done.  Wheat is feeling selling pressure coming from corn and soybean pits and also the stronger dollar.  A cold week here keeps winterkill ideas alive, although I doubt there will be much, plus it keeps raining in Australia.  Seems like speculative demand in the wheat, and some fund type selling in corn and soybeans.  I have not seen much commercial interest here today, just yet. But, the commercials might turn buyers if the market keeps holding."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures opened 6 1/4 cents lower at $5.69. The Jan. soybean contract opened 1/4 of a cent lower at $13.00. The March wheat futures opened 14 cents lower at $7.93. The Jan. soyoil futures contract opened $0.23 higher at $53.68. The Jan soymeal futures opened $1.30 per short ton lower at $349.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 2 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:25am:

Reports of demand coming in this morning:

USDA says an 'unknown' bought 20,000 metric tons of U.S. soyoil for 2010-11.

--160,000 U.S. HRW wheat sold to an unknown buyer for 2010-11.

--116,000 metric tons of U.S. corn was sold to an unknown buyer for 2010-11 delivery.

--171,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans sold to China for 2010-11.

--55,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans sold to China for 2011-12 delivery.

 

Mike

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At 7:20am:

Corn prices could double by the year 2050, an international agency is estimating Monday.

 

Also, Monday's weather forecast, for the critical soybean growing areas of Argentina, has very little rain it for the week. If you haven't already, I encourage you to take a glance at the South America Crop Update story at http://tinyurl.com/25ueunb

 

Mike

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At 7am:


Early calls: Corn down 2-4 cents, soybeans 1-3 lower and wheat up 7-9 cents.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading mostly lower.

Crude Oil=$0.15 higher.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher, despite the European debt crisis looming about.

World  Markets=Mixed.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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8 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor December 6

Let's see.....

 

If you'd predicted in 1974 that corn prices could double by 2008, you'd have been right.

 

Didn't mean you'd survive the 80s to see it.

 

Reminds me of the story of the economist who drowned crossing a river that was 3 feet deep, on average.

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Contributor

Re: From the floor December 6

Corn prices might double..................GREAT!!!

 

Now tell me what the prices of everything else will do in the next 40 years.  If a combine will cost a million $, and nitrogen will be $2k per ton.......

 

So what will we have gained?    KenJ

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 6

Using the rule of "72", which is that if you divide the rate of return (indflation in this instance) into 72, you get the number of years for prices to double.

This country has a historical inflation rate of about 3 percent.

This means that 72 divided by three is 24 years for prices to double to double.

I think that treasury chief Bernaeke has said that he looks at a 2 percent inflation rate which means that it takes 36 years for prices to double.

Corn prices to double by 2050, or $10.00 to $12.00 is very likely, probably more.

But so will every thing else double, and with our progressive tax system, the taxes you pay will be more than ever as a percentage of our purchasing power.

So who will gain???????????????????????????

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 6

Lots of shy buyers this week........p-oed

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 6

I sold corn on the board Friday and put a buy stop on it today.  Purely a spec sale, which I very seldom do.  If it drifts down I protect some corn on hand and if it rallies I hope I get out with the commission paid for.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 6

I believe the tax schedule is adjusted for inflation.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 6

I don't think that the tax schedules are completely adjusted for inflation.

With double the net income, you pay more than twice as much taxes.

That is why politicians can always advocate a reduction in the tax rates, yet I have always had to pay a greater percentage of my income in taxes.

I am not complaining, as I am doing well in retirement. I like all these perks like social security, medicare, good roads, good water, good schools for my grandchildren. cleaner air, police protection, etc.

And all this takes money.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor December 6

I was wrong on the ethanol move.  It looks like it will extended.  I was stopped out of my short corn at a price that should cover the commission and a little more so it wasn't a losing spec trade.  I think I'll sit on the side for a bit.

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