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Contributor

Re: From the floor February 1

Correct, I doubt it was China.  More cotton, more beans, at the expense of feedgrains. 

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Contributor

Re: From the floor February 1

Marketeye,

  Long time reader ( creeper)  first time poster.  I was wondering if you think that Australia will be a factor in the markets in the next few days.  I was reading on the web that there is a Cyclone is headed for north east Australia which still has wet feet from the latest biblical flooding.  They are predicting that they can receive up to 3 feet  ( yes I said feet)  of rain.   Do they have any crops that can still be damaged from this or are they all done harvesting there crops?  I feel for those people down there.  first they deal with years of drought, and now they seem to be getting all the rain they missed in past droughts in one season.   

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor February 1

Sou Tx,


Regarding the China corn situation, here is what one analyst tells me. In his own words: "Corn's the mystery for China. China's corn consumption for the livestock industries is expected to rise again into 2011 by 6 to 8% to over 100 million metric tons as they expand chicken and hog populations for meat protein. China has been suspiciously absent from corn importing but at some point they will enter as their corn inventories were depleted the last half of 2010 as they auctioned it off to outlying areas to help curb spiraling food inflation, while production fell short. Tight stocks and expanding feedlots as well as growing ethanol demand leaves China to be a major corn player this year."


Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor February 1

farmer3,

 

Welcome into the tent, my man. It is great to have you come out of the creeping shadow. I think you'll find it feels much better in the 'light'. Smiley Happy

 

Anyway, I put your question to a floor trader. He says, "No wheat, if that's what you mean. It is about 95% harvested so it is a null value.
North of Brisbane we see sugar production areas which is 1/3 of Australia's production. This will help sugar as the week progresses with corn sure to follow. That's all I have heard so far. Shipping will be delayed if there is any damage to NE ports which is expected. This may force more sourcing from the US but that's a long shot."

 

Mike

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor February 1

Welcome farmer3.

Like Mike says where the cyclone is going to hit is the north east, Queensland State.

It is more tropical weather wise and I think grows the least wheat in Australia.

Other parts of Australia have had more than usual amounts of rain which made their harvest difficult. Their harvest occurred in late 2010 so not much at risk now.

Other parts of Australia have not had the flooding like Queensland area and I think parts of western Australia are still dry.

Have friends near Melbourne which is in the south and they have had rain, which they are thankful for because they were in drought, but have not had any flooding.

It is a big country.

I posted a youtube of the flooding in Toowomba earlier.

Pretty spectacular pictures of what a 'little' rain can do as you watch cars wash away from a parking lot.

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Senior Reader

Re: From the floor February 1

Will be interesting to see what you get. Great view!
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Contributor

Re: From the floor February 1

Hi Marketeye

 

 

Regarding the China corn situation, here is what one analyst tells me. In his own words: "Corn's the mystery for China. China's corn consumption for the livestock industries is expected to rise again into 2011 by 6 to 8% to over 100 million metric tons as they expand chicken and hog populations for meat protein. China has been suspiciously absent from corn importing but at some point they will enter as their corn inventories were depleted the last half of 2010 as they auctioned it off to outlying areas to help curb spiraling food inflation, while production fell short. Tight stocks and expanding feedlots as well as growing ethanol demand leaves China to be a major corn player this year."

-----WASDE #'s have China corn feed use @ 107, 112, 113 mmt last 3 myrs. 

-----Last big importation of corn by Chins was 95/96.  They started buying Heavy  in Aug & bought most early  & cheap.

      (Buy it cheap/Stack it deep)(Aug S&D was a Thurs--Weekly export sales that same day had over 2mmt of corn

       sold--corn was limit down $.20 & closed down $.01-.02.  The bull started.

 

I am not necessarily bearish--I am just not too bullish from these levels.  I especially do not think China will buy corn at these levels.  And if they do, they will buy a lot at one time, not small increments.

As always, time will tell.

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Advisor

Re: From the floor February 1

   Wednesday 7:45 am here in nw Ohio right along Lake Erie.  Got up and thought OK we got thru the storm  pretty good.  Hard to say how much snow since it's drifted so bad but nothing I haven't seen before.  Maybe a foot or so.  However in the last half hour the north windows are icing up.

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