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Mike M2692830
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor February 24

The 164 number is just a number right now with no teeth. It could be 164 or 154 or 174 by August or September. Those at the USDA are economists not agronomists...MikeM

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor February 24

MIke M I am not even sure they are economists.  HE HE.  Marketeye I ahve forward contracted everything to my dairy farm. Does that count?  I am way under even Krafts dismal sale! Smiley Surprised

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gbryce
Frequent Contributor

Re: Forward Selling

Mike, I have forward sold nothing, nor do I plan to until I get that corn out of the ground. Or at least until I get my Crop Insurance finalized, and know where we are on base price. I guess I am more bullish than most, but I know I can hold that 2011 grain in storage until August of 2012, and a lot can happen between now and then. Also I am not really in a tight cashflow situation right now so that makes a difference.

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Forward Selling

Don't know of any way of verifying it but I would guess less than 20% of next year's crop would be forward sold. Some will have done much more, most none.

 

I am, of course, guessing.

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muddymiller
Frequent Contributor

Re: Forward Selling

Because I am bullish, I'm not as pre-sold as normal, but close. Making smaller sales more often and riding this thing up. First time thru a limit down where I didn't care cuz I was so sure it wouldcome back and more. But if I was the guy making headlines in the exorbant rent column, I definantly would be doing alot of price protection.

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor February 24


@marketeye wrote:

GoredHusker,

 

It would be very interesting to hear feedback from others, regarding your inclination of less forward-selling. You might be right. Let's see how folks respond. It seems farmers are holding on to what's left, but the bulk of it is forward-sold. Again, let's see if we can get some folks to weigh in on this?

 

Thanks


Have no idea what the situation is in Ontario regarding forward sales. Have to ask some in the industry and see if they tell me much.

Personally have no 2011 sold but that is usual for me.

Still have a larger % of 2010 than I normally would but have sold about normal tonnes for this time of year. High yields last year and none retained for pig feed this year.

I understand a lot has been sold already by others.

Local ethanol plant has no bid on their site for corn until Oct so I would tend to believe a lot of 2010 corn is no longer in farmers hands.

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centralillinois
Contributor

Re: From the floor February 24

It would be interesting to know where the increase in double crop beans are planted.  When north of 74 in Illinois double crop bean yields vary wildly depending on frost and August moisture.  One year in ten you raise 40 bushel beans and one year in ten you raise ten bushel beans.  In this neighborhood the ten year average is 20 to 25 bushels per acre.  So it'll take a lot more acres of double crop beans to add to the carryover.

 

I rarely sell corn until close to planting.  This year won't be any different, but by May 15th, I'll have maybe a third sold.  But I reserve the right to change my mind tomorrow, or even tonight.  Last year when corn prices were much lower, I didn't spray fungicide on corn, but this year it may be worthwhile.  Most corn around here gained a minimum of ten bushels an acre, depending on variety.

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