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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor February 25

At the close:

The May corn futures closed 25 1/4 cents higher at $7.22. The May soybean contract settled 45 3/4 cents higher at $13.75.  The May wheat futures closed 28 3/4 cents higher at $8.11 1/4. The May soymeal futures ended $9.80 per short ton higher at $364.70. The May soyoil futures settled $2.30 higher at $57.58.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.86 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 70 points.


Funds bought 20,000 corn contracts today, pushing up prices. There's continued talk about strong demand. The government thinks the U.S. farmer will need the highest yields possible to meet the future demand. There just wasn't any bearish news Friday.


Mike

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At mid-session:

The May corn futures are 25 3/4 cents higher at $7.22 1/4. The May soybean contract is 41 3/4 cents higher at $13.71.  The May wheat futures are 34 1/4 cents higher at $8.16 3/4. The May soymeal futures are $10.40 per short ton higher at $365.30. The May soyoil futures are $1.99 higher at $57.27.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.12 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 58 points.

 

Oil prices back off, the dollar jumps. So, it's not outside markets surging grain prices higher. No. The market is trading demand, today.

 

One analyst says, "We rallied on some wire stories that Russia was going to import 1.0 million tons of grain soon. That seemed to push us into stops and also probably created new buying. The strong weekly export sales for wheat and corn also a big factor here in the upside push today.  Also, USDA implies that we need to produce every bushel possible in the coming year, because they are taking a very strong view on demand.  In short, NO bearish news for the markets today and the markets responded.  We are ignoring geopolitical crap today, after having it run the markets all week.  Now, we are worried about grains and oilseeds again."


Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures opened 9 3/4 cents higher at $7.06 1/4. The May soybean contract opened 8 1/2 cents higher at $13.38 1/4.  The May wheat futures opened 17 1/4 cents higher at $7.96. The March soymeal futures opened $2.50 per short ton higher at $352.90.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.05 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 60 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:15am:

USDA announced Friday that China bought 165,000 metric tons of soybeans for 2011-12 delivery.

 

By the way, USDA says 2011 soybean crush will be down 5.0 million bushels, due to higher domestic demand. The number was released from the government's Outlook Conference this week.

 

Mike

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At 7:35am:

USDA releases friendly corn and wheat export sales Friday, weak soybean sales.


In its weekly report, USDA says U.S. corn sales came in at 1.65 million metric tons, compared to the trade expectations of 850 to 1,000,000 (mt). For soybeans, weekly sales were 252,600 mt vs. the trade expectations of 300 to 500,000 (mt). Wheat export sales were recorded at 1.115 million mt, higher than the trade expectations of 700,000-1.00 million mt. For soymeal, the USDA estimates sales at 108,700 mt, compared to the trade expectations of 75-150,000 (mt).

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:


Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher and wheat 5-7 cents higher. Weekly Export Sales will be out at 7:30am CST. Look for the numbers right here.


Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Traded higher.

Crude Oil=$0.45 higher.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen opening higher as major oil suppliers have reassured the market that they will increase production if Libya's fighting hurts supply.

World Markets=Higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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2 Replies
SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor February 25

Looks like the bears are gonna have to find a bigger rope to hold this bull back. The market seem to be pretty resilient bouncing back after some tough days earlier this week. I suppose the bulls got fed this morning by the corn export numbers which cannot be sustained with the limited carryout. How much more feeding do they need to get corn up to $8?

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor February 25

Physical fundamentals are firmly in control. There are a significant number of people who would like to think their political and monetary grudges are the best measure. They are not. Food security and the probabilities related to producing another big crop in N America are. That doesn't mean we won't tumble around some.

 

There are times I wished I could speculate, and this is one of them. I was without a doubt sales of wheat would take a jump during this downturn for purely logistical reasons and political necessity, and I wasn't disappointed. Then I detected that physical wheat prices jumped after the market closed - which almost never happens in this kind of situation. Buyers were surely pounding at the doors of my market to take advantage of this dip. I expect another good week for sales following.

 

The icing on the cake will be whether the high 'was in'. If we go back to where we were for wheat and corn then it will be proof positive that many have been biased in their assesssment of this market because of technical and economic arguments not firmly linked to physical fundamentals.