From the floor January 12 (Report Day)

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

Hi, Jed. One of today's analysts in the CME Group press conference said "Cotton is playing into that equation," in reference to the battle for acres this year, which he doesn't think will be as stiff as the last couple of years. But, with the number of acres they agreed we'll need for corn and beans, it sounds like some cotton acres could be sacrificed. 

We've got links to all the reports on this page, if you'd like to run through them. Also, here's a little info from the annual Crop Production report on cotton:

All cotton production is estimated at 18.3 million 480-pound bales, up slightly from last month and up 50 percent from 2009.  The U.S. yield is estimated at 821 pounds per acre, up 7 pounds from the December 1 forecast and up 44 pounds from last year.  Harvested area, at 10.7 million acres, is down 1 percent from December but up 42 percent from last year. 

[Red Steele]

actual cash, or factored for inflation?

actual cash....Corn $8 plus, soybeans $18.50

factored for inflation...Corn $9.50, soybeans $22.00

either way, it would be quite an event and not necesary a good one for farming, long term

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

Hey, Red. The numbers one of the analysts threw out as his "target prices" are $6.80 to $7.20 for corn and $14.50 to $15.50 for beans. But, based on their remarks today, I suspect your numbers probably are just as realistic.

So, now what, then? Hold tight and wait for this big rally to continue for a while, or capture what you can now? Jeez, are we grain marketers or riverboat gamblers?!

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

So, Mike, are they boarding up the windows and barring the doors in the trading floor over there in Chi-town in preparation for the open in a few minutes?

[marketeye]

Jed,

Sorry for the delay. Here you go:

USDA COTTON SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT JANUARY 2011 (in millions of bales)
US S/D    09/10                     10/11

Planted 9.2                             11.0  -7K

Harvested 7.5                          10.8  -60K

Yield 777                                  821  +7 lbs

Production 12.2                        18.3  +.05

Exports 12.1                              15.8     nc

Usage 3.5                                  3.6    +.05

Endg Stoxs    3.0                        1.9   nc

World S/D    09/10                        10/11

Bndg Stoxs    60.5                          43.9    -.15

Production 101.5                           115.5    -.70

Usage    118.5                                116.6     +.55

Trade    35.7                                    38.3     -.40

Endg Stoxs    43.9                            42.8   -.55

Hope this helps.

Mike

[jrsiajdranch]

I think I will  crawl back into the parlor pit and pull a cow over me now! 

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

Got a story wrapped up on what the analysts in Chicago are saying about the numbers. Basically, on top of what I wrote here earlier, demand rationing will probably have to come from the ethanol industry, and we can't neglect seeing how things are going in South America when it comes to demand in general. And, if it comes from the livestock sector, the consumer may have something to do with that. How do you think that will shake out, JR?

Anyway, here's a little more on it.

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

To stay warm or dodge the bulls running around the grain pits?!

[marketeye]

p-oed Farmer,

It sounds like you are right. From what I'm being told, demand needs to ratchet up quickly. And, corn use for ethanol seems to be the first area of rationing that needs to happen, according to market analysts. The markets are very high right now. Let's see what happens on the close, huh?

Mike

[jrsiajdranch]

Jeff I peeked out from under bossy there for a minute to tell you the consumer will pay more for sure we still have record cattle slaughter and dairy guys are culling hard. Also we are bringing fat cattle to market faster than ever as they feed them grain and ddg's for excellent quick gains but they don't keep up the tonnage at the other end.  Reduced tonnage comes from reduced feed! period.  So as we pull forward the meat supply. Eventually we will have to few cow numbers. Just how the pedullum swings. Mrs. houswife is gonna be rioting in the streets this summer. and ethonal will get the undeserved brunt. Sometimes you get what you ask for. 

As to acres well here is a quote from one of my favorite writers in ag media.

"This is the first time I've been doing this in 32 years that I can't find where the acres are going to come from, unless hay acres in the West go under the plow,"

Well OK you just quoted a guy. But still a week or two ago me and Jrfrom OR talked about this and hay acres are going the way of the plow fast out there. It is showing up in the hay auctions. The enduser is realizing that next years available supply will be less. Heck even ole Craig the republican is going to get rid of hay acres and he is a real die hard!

All in all it is one day in the the life of a livestock guy we've been here before we will be somewhere else this summer. It's a good day to be alive tho. Even tho it is cold!