Re: From the floor January 13
"I don't think anyone knows what the highs will be, nor how fast and far the markets will eventually fall to lows once a fall supply is assured."
Therein is the key to this market this next year. Unless one knows when the supply will be assured one can't use seasonals or anything else with comfort. It's this fact that reassures me that it isn't likely 'the sky will fall' before there is some assurance the supply next year will be adequate to meet global demand equal to this year and then some.
The signs? First that S America gets at least a normal crop to put the finger in the dike. A painless planting season, on average, in the corn belt might ease the tension in the market. I believe we are likely to be in a weather market from planting on this next year. Only as the crop develops, normally to above, is the market going to relax and dives down in price can take place. On the other hand, much will depend on China corn imports and the general production trends in N America. One year's trendline production in the corn belt isn't guaranteed to build enough stocks to put everyone at ease in the market.
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