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winger667304
Contributor

Re: From the floor January 17

Couldn't agree more Once. I was alluding to the fact that in an effort to maximize return in these years that don't come very often I often misinterpret the market and get caught. Like I said one of the problems is no middle ground. We can go from a bullish lack of supply situation one day to limit down the next. I think ag commodities are far more suseptable to this type market than some of the others.

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Mike M2692830
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor January 17

Hey Mike, I just finished doing the math on our farm comparing corn on corn to soybeans. Using 180 bu corn at 5.13(OCT cash price today at local coop) and 55 bu beans at 12.43(OCT cash price), corn is leading the way by $53/ac. It wouldn't take much to change that difference either by price or yield. FWIW.....MikeM

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oncearound
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor January 17

winger, agree on the extreme volatility of these grain markets......but there is a trend and i will try to ride it as far as i can!

 

 

 

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jec22
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor January 17

Mike M, is that $53 for corn on soybeans, or corn on corn?  I would think that $53 bucks could quickly vanish when figuring the extra costs for corn on corn.  Figured last year's cost of production....that was an eye opener. 

 

Question for all...

What is greed?

Waiting for the market to give you more when carryout is tight?

Farming 1000, 2000, 3000, 5000 or more acres?

Endusers having bought a majority of the corn needs for the year in the sub four dollar range, and now saying "we need to cut ethanol production"?

Farming is business.  What I do with marketing isn't going to matter a mill-a-spec in the big picture.  If I was a better businessman, I would have bought land five years ago.

 

FWIW, Ray had a post on another site, that explained any change in the ethanol mandate requires a a certain time line, which would take a matter of months and include a public comment period.  Another thought.  Basis on ethanol is basically zero.  Basis on gasoline is running plus 50 cents or better.  So what do you think that basis and futures price of gasoline would do if you cut ethanol?  And, just because the US cuts ethanol, what is to say that other countries, when the corn price declines and gasoline spikes, would not quickly purchase either the ethanol or the corn to make the ethanol?  We are in a global economy.  It is a new ball game.

 

I hold because the market tells me to hold.  I don't think anyone will take it too bad if I am wrong and take alot less than today's price.  The better job I do, the more I can pay my landlords,  so it is a share the wealth thing.  If I can't pay enough rent, they are some guys that will gladly farm the ground in my place.  Been farming along time, these good years are few and far between.  Costs are going up and up:  those greedy suppliers....

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Soyfarmer
Contributor

Re: From the floor January 17

Amen to that oncearound and what surprises me is that some saying that are farmers!!

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oncearound
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor January 17

jec22,,,,as i'm sure you have noticed.....corn and beans are moving towards a complete inversion. one of the most bullish short term signals a market can demonstrate. the spreads normally telegraph the action.

 

 

and yes Soyfarmer, nature of the beast i suppose? many are not outfitted to handle these type of markets, patience is a valuable

virtue and a much needed commodity to win this war! 😉

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Mike M2692830
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor January 17

it is my comparison for corn on corn or beans on same ground..MIkeM

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor January 17

I'm dribbling it out this year.

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