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Senior Contributor

From the floor January 18

At the close:

The March corn futures settled 10 3/4 cents higher at $6.59 1/2. The March soybean contract closed 9 1/4 cents lower at $14.13 1/4.  The March wheat futures ended 20 1/4 cents higher at $7.93 1/4. March soybean meal futures closed $4.70 lower per short ton at $383.50. The March soyoil futures settled $0.28 higher at $57.55.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.26 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 61 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures are 11 1/4 cents higher at $6.60. The March soybean contract is 2 3/4 cents higher at $14.25 1/4.  The March wheat futures are 17 1/2 cents higher at $7.90 3/4. March soybean meal futures are $2.90 lower per short ton at $385.20. The March soyoil futures are $0.66 higher at $57.93.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 58 points.

 

One analyst says,"We saw better-than-expected rain, over the weekend, in Argentina.This had beans down on the overnight and day session. It capped corn trade overnight. But, corn followed more bullish wheat news. Australia, over the
weekend, stated the recent flooding continues. Today, there is talk of shipping rails underwater, with potential rail shipping delays of wheat up to 3 months.This all but eliminates Australia as a wheat supplier, before U.S. Canadian and European crops start to see their harvest entering in May. The wheat news could be a one-day flash, with potential
for 'turnaround' Tuesday."

 

Mike

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10:40am:

Beans are trading higher  now.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures are 4 3/4 cents higher at $6.53 1/2. The March soybean contract opened 5 cents lower at $14.18.  The March wheat futures opened 16 cents higher at $7.89 1/2. Soybean meal futures opened $3.30 lower per short ton at $384.80. The March soyoil futures opened $0.12 lower at $57.15.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.04 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 46 points.

 

Here are some various market comments from a floor trader: "The Argy crop is lower by 5 to 7 mmt and that idea has not changed. The area of concern has diminished and rain is still in the forecast for the coming week. So, I think we are standing pat on current crop estimates. I am a little bearish at the moment. But, the balance sheets are tight enough for both corn and beans that U.S. planting intentions and spring weather will dictate price. You can make the case for blow-off style market moves to $7.50 corn and $17 dollar beans. But, I would expect that in our own weather market in the spring/summer, when cash markets are tighter."


He adds, "The Chinese import margin for corn is not there. But, at $5.40 futures, you could import corn for profit, but not now. However., if the gov't in China wants to build a cushion of stocks at non-economic prices, as happened in 1995/96, then they could. Of course, the Chinese Premiere is in Chicago to meet with President O today. So, we will see if the rhetoric makes any mention of corn."


Mike

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At 8:45am:

USDA announced Tuesday that Turkey bought 145,000 metric tons of U.S. hard red winter wheat for 2010/11 delivery.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

Japan seeks 149,114 metric tons of mostly U.S. wheat, some Canada for March delivery, announced Tuesday.

--China's January soybean imports are estimated at 4.5 million metric tons, up one-third from a previous Chinese gov't estimate late last month.

--Argentina's soybean weather is seen hot/dry today, maybe 1-inch tomorrow, and then hot/dry for the rest of the week. Weekend rains were beneficial, according to weather reports.

--Argentine farmers did go on strike yesterday, for a week. The farmers are protesting export restrictions.

 

Mike

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7:20am:


Early calls: Corn up 6-8 cents, soybeans down 1-2 cents, and wheat 12-14 cents higher.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading mostly higher.

Crude Oil=$0.29 lower.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen opening mixed as Apple's Steve Job announces a medical leave of absence, his third. This sent Apple lower and possibly today's stock trade.lower. A big earnings week was expected to help the market, until Jobs' announcement.

World Markets=Higher.

 

 


More in a minute,


Mike

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6 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor January 18

Seems to be kinda sad when one mans health can effect the stock prices?....... p-oed

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Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor January 18

Thanks for the morning updates.......IMO rain in Argentina was probably real beneficial if it fell in amounts of more than 1 inch but the reality is, if its 95 to over 100 we know how long that sticks around......a few days at best especially if its been dry up until this point......it makes things perk up but when the combines roll it is likely a different story......

 

P-oed........as for Apple stock......its the reality we live in now......everyone is so spooked even the diehards view anything like this as a reason to lighten position.........Apple is kind of a unique story with two Brands.....Apple and Steve Jobs.....when one is sick the other suffers.........their is a lot of Steve Jobs priced into the stock.................

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor January 18

What is the deal on China and DDG's ? ?

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor January 18

With the Chinese leader 'in-town' this week, I bet we find out more on this DDG anti-dumping case. Stay tuned.

 

Mike

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Contributor

Re: From the floor January 18

Another day, another dime on corn, two dimes on wheat so I don't mind giving up a little on the Soys. Anymore 9 cents on soybeans is like a non event or a 1 cent day on corn. Trying to figure how many of these days corn has left. Was there a lot of buyers and just enough sellers today to keep a lid on things around up 10. Are there some big boys in the wings that are going to be forced to jump into this eventually as the break they have been waiting for has not happened. Feeling a little safer everyday riding this thing but that probably is a good indicator that the call to the elevator should happen sooner rather than later. One thing I was wondering will tonights boys trade todays market or will they be looking for new reasons for this thing to go higher, kinda like the chicken or the egg which came first. Here's hopin tomorrow we ride again.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor January 18

winger, i believe in making the market show me the top in times like this. i dont mind selling on the down slide if i picked up a dollar as opposed to selling into relentless strength. fwiw. d7

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