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Senior Contributor

From the floor January 19

Is it just me, or do these Argentine corn and soybean crops look behind in their growth? What do you think? See photos of the Argentine drought-stricken crops in this Agriculture.com slideshow (click here).

 

It's interesting to note, that Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities, is telling his customers, in a daily newsletter, that Argentina's crop-weather problems continue to be a market concern. "The rain in Argentina did help about 25% of their dry areas, but now the forecast turns hot and dry with a dome setting up by this weekend. This will take the corn and soybean crop size down in future reports and increase the chance that the Argentine government will suspend corn exports."

 

I'd be curious to hear your opinion after you look at that slideshow mentioned above.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The March corn futures settled 18 1/4 cents lower at $6.41 1/4. The March soybean contract closed 1 3/4 cents lower at $14.11 1/2.  The March wheat futures settled 4 cents higher at $7.97 1/4. Soybean meal futures finished $0.10 lower per short ton at $383.30. The March soyoil futures settled $0.10 higher at $57.65.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.60 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 29 points.

 

Separetly from today's markets, Goldman Sachs reported a 53% drop in fourth quarter earnings. At the same time, the bank announced that they were less aggressive in commodities, during that period. Hmmm..., lighten up on commodity exposure and fall way back on the bottomline. This is very unusual behavior for GS, wouldn't you agree?

 


Near 12-Noon:

It looks corn profit-taking and reports of rain in Argentina are pulling soybean prices down.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures are 4 1/2 cents lower at $6.55. The March soybean contract is 7 3/4 cents higher at $14.21.  The March wheat futures are 11 1/2 cents higher at $8.04 3/4. Soybean meal futures are $2.50 higher per short ton at $383.25. The March soyoil futures opened $0.37 higher at $57.94.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.07 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 1 point.

 

One analyst says, "I think we saw some profit taking right after the opening.  There is no real fundamental that I can see to drive the prices lower today.  The spreads are breaking, which is never a good sign.  But, my feeling is that the market is due for some profit taking more than anything, and that is exactly what we are seeing.  It is interesting that Corn is weaker than beans as it has been raining in argentina again and the corn crop there is already hurt but beans can come back, but there you go.  China here this week helping the beans, lots of ideas we do more business there.  I am not so optimistic right now but I could be wrong."


A lower dollar is helping most of the higher grain trade, analysts say. The funds bought an estimated 15,000 corn contracts yesterday. Today, the corn market is seeing occurrences of profit-taking. Something to keep in mind is that funds are now net-long the corn market by 520,000 contracts, the biggest ever, according to one analyst.


 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures are 1 cent higher at $6.61. The March soybean contract opened 11 3/4 cents higher at $14.24.  The March wheat futures opened 9 cents higher at $8.02 1/2. Soybean meal futures opened $0.20 higher per short ton at $385.30. The March soyoil futures opened $0.17 higher at $58.20.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.46 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 2 points.

 

Mike

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At 7am:


Early calls: Corn up 6-8 cents, soybeans up 14-16 cents, and wheat 12-14 cents higher.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading sharply higher.

Crude Oil=$0.56 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen opening mixed ahead of more corporate earnings reports.

World Markets=Mixed.

 

All outside factors favor a higher grain trade Wednesday. Plus, the overnights are sharply higher. So, here we go. I hope you are enjoying the ride in these clouds?

 

China is not expected to import a lot of corn in 2011, according to a Dow Jones Newswire story Wednesday. See the full story (click here).

 

 

More in a minute,


Mike

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12 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor January 19

If that was my corn crop in August I would not be a very happy producer. You wonder if those are pictures of the best looking crops down there or are they just representive of the whole area. What do they expect for an average bu per acre in a normal year? That ear size looked sub 150 to me....MikeM

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Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor January 19

Maybe a little behind, plants definitely look like their growth has been stressed.......which means if this dome of doom sets in with current moisture constraints the soya crop could be setting up to take a big hit........

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Contributor

Re: From the floor January 19

 

     Thoes beans look short to me!  

 

     If they [argentinea]  shut down exports , what does that do to China's corn agreement with them ?  That could be the Ball game!       Stan

 

     Best job in the good old USA    FARMING

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor January 19

At least one analyst has said that Argentina has cut some corn deals with China. Therefore, if Argentina can't fill those orders, the U.S. would be a likely supplier. That's not news to anyone. Whether it actually happens or not is something different.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor January 19

What I was suprised at was the level of residue in the bean fields. Also those spider mites are going to bring down that soy crop in a big way. Those injuries just attract way to many other potential diseases. What what was the pop in that last field?  ANd I would think 6 foot tall corn at this stage would be behind. SO all in all It will probably be the best crop they ever have grown! LOL

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Contributor

Re: From the floor January 19

Mike some of the Argentina photos were in the Grain exchange report on January 6 so they had to be taken in late December or early January. My farmer down there said his corn is off 30 % and he is in an area that got a couple of timely rains, He also stopped planting beans most of November because they would not germinate,he planted beans in the first half of October and finished in early December. Later Tom

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Contributor

Re: From the floor January 19

the rains we had last sund were mainly in buenos aires province, i would say between 20 to 40% of the soybean production, today is raining again in nearly same places. the other 70% of soybeans plants did not get any rain (including mine unfortunatelly)

 

i had to spray all my soybeans due to the disease you show on the photos and some farmers are doing it for the 2nd time which as you can imagine the dry is still here (at least in my area). that desease is mainly in dry seasons.

 

due to our diverse temperatures (high during the day and low during the night) our soybeans are not growing to fast (of course this is also done by the dry), so in to many fields the soybeans are not covering the hole space allowing the chance to receive more bad plants ( i do not know the name in english for those not resistent to glifosato but you understand what i am saying)

 

for the next 5 days there is no forecast of rains, if we do not get any and next week either i can say that our saoybeans will be in trouble (at least cordoba province as a huge damage, the other states are not so bad

 

corn is already lost (no matter the last rains on sunday), we will be aroung 20 million tons and yes the potential for a cut off export are very possible.......our goverment dont care to respect the deals with china (unfortunatelly)

 

on soybeans today we can still get to 48-50 million tons but if doesn´t rain in the next 10 days i have no idea but we could get between 43-45. i think our botton line is 40 million, no less

 

hope to be clear

 

santiago 

 

 

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Contributor

Re: From the floor January 19

thanks for your post to keep us informed.  I have been there before and feel bad for you and your fellow farmers.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor January 19

Santiago,

 

Your ears must have been burning? I was just talking to a farmer, this morning, about how I wish you would check-in and bring us all up-to-date on your Argentina crop. Thanks very much for stopping in. Like many others, I feel for you. Not being able to control the weather is tough. Can I ask you a few questions, while we're at it? What is your average soybean yield, corn yield? And what do you and your neighbor-farmers think you'll see this year? Do you hear of anyone tearing up their fields and trying to re-plant (anything)? What about crop insurance? How does that work for you in Argentina, Santiago? Thanks again and good luck with a stronger finish to the season.

 

Mike

 

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