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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor January 6

Jr.  your numbers might be right, but your timing is wrong.  More than likely when this all shakes out, the carryover will be 1.2 billion +.  If anyone remembers 2008, they have to remember that at one time USDA pegged corn ending stocks at 717 million bushels.  By the time the marketing year was over, that 717 million turned into 1.62 billion.  High prices cure high prices.  However, USDA will not make this type of adjustment yet.  They'll slowly but surely do it over the summer months.  USDA is not proactive at all.   

 

The feed numbers continue to baffle me.  The record feed use of corn is 6.2 billion bushels.  They have feed use pegged at 5.4 billion bushels which makes sense with the lower livestock numbers.  However, the numbers lose a lot of credibility when you factor in the 33% of corn used for ethanol back into the feed use.  If ethanol uses 4.5 billion bushels, 1.5 billion bushels comes back into the feed category.  This takes the 5.4 billion up to 6.9 billion bushels.  I don't know about anyone else, but I don't think our beef, pork, and poultry herds have gotten this inefficient.  Another mind boggler about all of this is that when we set the record for feed usage we were placing a lot of 4 weight calves in feedlots.  With 5+ corn, we're not placing many/any 4 or even 5 weight calves in lots. 

 

Another mind boggler to me is the fact that the Baltic Dry Index of the barge freight is relatively close to the five year bottom meaning barge freight is relatively cheap with regards to the five year average.  We know that at least some to a lot of grain was purchased at lower to much lower prices.  When you figure in barge freight getting cheaper and grain prices getting higher, why aren't those countries that bought some time ago taking delivery of earlier purchased grain taking advantage of the falling shipping cost? 

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Contributor

Re: From the floor January 6

Mike, where is that chart format from.  I've been looking for that kind of grid background.  Thanks.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor January 6

Gored my timing is always wrong!Smiley Surprised  I do think tho that your feed numbers are right on.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor January 6

JR I know we have a very small cow herd right now and that will take some time to build back up. The reduced number of hogs in the us however should quickly rebound. I work on a large farrow to wean operation part time and we have had lower numbers of sows having pigs mainly because of the poor quality 09 corn. The yield wasn't very good this year for corn in this area but the quality seems to be excellent and bred sow and gilt numbers are on the rise. I don't see this report changing much, I would think prices will stay high until we get good crop weather somewhere. This lull in the market might be a good time for dairy guys to buy corn.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor January 6

Black you are right that 09 crop was pure poison!

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Re: From the floor January 6

Hi Gored: Shouldn't the ddgs number go towards the soy carry over as a protien source? I don't feed any livestock so I'm not sure how it's used.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor January 6

Currently, I'm replacing 40% of my corn use with wet distillers because on a dry basis it is roughly $3.85 a bushel rather than 5+ for cash corn.  I don't know how the ddg's would correllate to a hog ration, but distillers really aren't a protein substitute because of the energy or fat content.  Some feedlots around here are pushing 50%+ displacement of corn.  I think this is a little hot and takes a little more management. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor January 6

DDG's run 28-36% protien and replace CORN and SBOM in a lvstk ration, thus it needs to be split between corn and soybeans when discussing feed uses. It's not that X bu of beans are going to feed use, but rather X bu of beans are being displaced.

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