Jr. your numbers might be right, but your timing is wrong. More than likely when this all shakes out, the carryover will be 1.2 billion +. If anyone remembers 2008, they have to remember that at one time USDA pegged corn ending stocks at 717 million bushels. By the time the marketing year was over, that 717 million turned into 1.62 billion. High prices cure high prices. However, USDA will not make this type of adjustment yet. They'll slowly but surely do it over the summer months. USDA is not proactive at all.
The feed numbers continue to baffle me. The record feed use of corn is 6.2 billion bushels. They have feed use pegged at 5.4 billion bushels which makes sense with the lower livestock numbers. However, the numbers lose a lot of credibility when you factor in the 33% of corn used for ethanol back into the feed use. If ethanol uses 4.5 billion bushels, 1.5 billion bushels comes back into the feed category. This takes the 5.4 billion up to 6.9 billion bushels. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't think our beef, pork, and poultry herds have gotten this inefficient. Another mind boggler about all of this is that when we set the record for feed usage we were placing a lot of 4 weight calves in feedlots. With 5+ corn, we're not placing many/any 4 or even 5 weight calves in lots.
Another mind boggler to me is the fact that the Baltic Dry Index of the barge freight is relatively close to the five year bottom meaning barge freight is relatively cheap with regards to the five year average. We know that at least some to a lot of grain was purchased at lower to much lower prices. When you figure in barge freight getting cheaper and grain prices getting higher, why aren't those countries that bought some time ago taking delivery of earlier purchased grain taking advantage of the falling shipping cost?
I do think tho that your feed numbers are right on.
