cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor July 15

At the close:

The Dec corn futures settled 9 cents higher at $4.05 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract closed 26 cents higher at $9.88. The Sep. wheat futures ended 37 1/4 cents higher at $5.96 1/4. Dec. soybean meal futures settled $10.80 higher at $290.50 per short ton. Dec. soyoil futures settled 47 points higher at 39.37.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.42 lower per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 45 points.

 

Wheat went above a 7 1/2 month high on hot weather in the U.S. and world crop problems. Corn went above a 6-month high, following wheat. Soybeans shot through the moon on weather, demand, and fund-buying. Weather concerns, funds positioning ahead of the weekend and next week's expected heat all pushed up the grains. WHAT A RALLY!!!! Is it done? That's your cue to weigh in.

 

Mike

-------

At 12-Noon:

One analyst says, "Sharp gains today come as Thursday and Friday are days when the funds begin in earnest to put the next week's weather positions on, as they want to be positioned ahead of the weekend. With the weather industry all calling for a heat dome to settle across the Midwest Corn Belt by Tuesday and possibly stay thru month end, traders are concerned about crop losses that can occur now that we're into the key yield time for corn. By Monday, corn should be 50% pollinated and beans at 25% in the pod-setting stage. FUNDS are piling in long as its unlikely these forecasts will change before  Fridays close."

 

Mike

--------------

At 10:40am:

The Dec corn futures are 7 1/4 cents higher at $4.03 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 17 cents higher at $9.79. The Sep. wheat futures are 29 cents higher at $5.88. Dec. soybean meal futures are $6.80 higher at $286.50 per short ton. Dec. soyoil futures are trading 30 points higher at 39.20.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.20 lower per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 80 points.

 

 

Wheat is rallying off of heat concerns in the U.S. and crop problems around the world. Corn is following and also getting a boost from technical buying and that 'heat dome' threat for next week. Soybeans are rallying for much of the same weather concern. Plus, demand is strong.

 

Mike

---------

 

At 8:20am:

USDA announced 238,000 tons of U.S. soybeans were sold Thursday to an unknown destinations for delivery in 2010-11.

 

Also, USDA announces Thursday that 152,400 metric tons of U.S. corn has been sold to an unknown buyer for 2010-11 delivery.

 

This morning's pre-opening news is shaping up to be very, very bullish. I mean we already had sharply higher overnight prices to work with. And then strong weekly export sales were reported. And now, more U.S. corn and soybean sales are announced. Whew!!!


Mike

------


At 7:35am:

Export Sales: Corn; 1.023 million metric tons, the trade expected between 700-1,000,000 metric tons.

Soybeans=1.225 million metric tons, while the trade expected between 650,000-1.0 million metric tons.

Soymeal=89,300 metric tons, and the trade expected 75-175,000 metric tons.

Soyoil=USDA says 53,000 metric tons.

Wheat=309,000 metric tons, and the trade expected between 300-500,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

------------

 

At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn up 5-7 cents, wheat up 12-14 cents, soybeans 10-12 cents higher. Crop uncertainty pushed up the overnight prices. There may be new calls as we get closer to the open. It should be noted, the Midwest weather is being ruled by a high pressure dome. A few rains may fall before the week ends. But, some say the heat 'dome' could stick around for awhile.

 


Trackers:

Overnight grain=Traded sharply higher.

Crude oil=$0.39 per barrel higher.

Dollar=Trading lower.

Wall Street= Seen opening higher as JPMorgan reported its 2nd quarter earnings jumped 77%. The show is on for the big banks. Others will have a tough time matching that performance.

World Markets=Trading mixed. Grain traders want to watch out for the next piece of news. And that is China announced Thursday that its economic growth slowed in the 2nd quarter. The fear is the government will tighten restrictions on financial lending.



More in a minute,


Mike

0 Kudos
13 Replies
p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor July 15

Hang onto your cookies..... I think that the market wants to put a little risk premium into this market...... p-oed

0 Kudos
zman343
Contributor

Re: From the floor July 15

Kind of looks and feels like a blow off top in grains.  Have to see how we close today but markets are getting way overbought.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a good correction from these levels.  Might not be THE top but a top.

Tags (1)
0 Kudos
jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 15

Going to be hard to push cash corn prices with all the old crop that has to move.  July is normally a time when many processors are down for bin cleanings, etc.  Though the temps should increase the livestock mans access to discounted damaged corn....the high temps are hard on old crop in the bins as well.

0 Kudos
p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor July 15

Z.....Do you think that the shorts have had enough pain yet to let them off now?...... p-oed

0 Kudos
northcorn
Contributor

Re: From the floor July 15

Not sure that the shorts have earned enough pain yet but most of the shorts are owned by commercials and with basis in collapse mode down 10 at the river in MLSP looks like the farmer is going to take it in the shorts again.

 

 

 

With the volume of physical sales the farmer is doing the big commercials are really questioning the Farmer info on the last qtr. stocks report??

0 Kudos
zman343
Contributor

Re: From the floor July 15

Just depends on where a person is short from.  If this "heat dome" doesn't pan where will the market go?  Even if is as forecasted, soil moisture levels are very good and rains are coming before and after the heat.  Heat + moisture ≠ crop failure.  That being said, margin calls suck.

0 Kudos
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor July 15

Pollination would not be an issue????

0 Kudos
oncearound
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor July 15

the 12z GFS run showed no rain once the cap came in after day 7-8 or so? and the cap strengthens from there forward to day 15-16 not allowing any rains to enter. the ridge moves north well into then upper midwest in those extended days.

 

this is equal to a 1983 event should it actually come to reality?

 

calling a "top" , "blow off top".....etc might be a bit premature to say the least.

0 Kudos
dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor July 15

gap up on the dec day  chart pointing to another 30/40 cents run? d7

0 Kudos