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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor July 18

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 8 cents lower at $6.77. The Nov. soybean contract closed 3/4 of a cent lower at $13.86 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures closed 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.89 1/2. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract ended $1.30 per short ton lower at $364.60 and Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.44 lower at $57.82.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.31 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 95 points.

 

Mike

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At 12:45pm:

If you've noticed, the farm markets have trimmed deep losses from this morning. Part of this strengthening may have something to do with the new weather forecast. It indicates the eastern Corn Belt will NOT be getting the relief first thought on July 20-21. The cooler weather and rain will stay to the north.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 13 3/4 cents lower at $6.71 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 4 1/2 cents lower at $13.82 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 12 1/4 cents lower at $6.82 1/2. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract is trading $2.10 per short ton lower at $363.80 and Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.41 lower at $57.85.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.19 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 157 points.

The farm markets remain weak. One analyst says, "Part of the reason is the moderating weather outlooks for this coming weekend and next week which are not as hot and dry as they were expected to be on Friday.  I know there was no demand news this morning, but I am not sure any was really expected.  The other part seems to be the EU issues and our own debt issues.  The combination of the 2 has rallied the dollar and hurt commodities in general.  Overall, not the most thrilling day here."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 18 cents lower at $6.66 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 11 cents lower at $13.76. The Sep. wheat futures opened 16 cents lower at $6.79 1/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract opened $3.30 per short ton lower at $332.60 and Dec. soyoil futures opened  $0.58 lower at $57.68.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.86 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 136 points.

The higher dollar is pressuring the grains. A favorable weather forecast is bearish for the grain and soybean markets. Meanwhile, world debt issues are pulling down the stock market and pushing the dollar higher. All of these factors are negative for the commodities markets.

Mike

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At 7:20am:

FWIW, the technical corn pit trader is starting off the week with an overly bullish sentiment with a pinch of bearishness.

 

Tom White, at Future Road.net, recaps last weeka and looks forward to this week's outlook: "After trading lower on Monday and testing a downside pivot (625) area and below, the market rebounded to fill gaps and test mid-lines as outlined in last week’s review.  We also broke a daily trend line which generally keeps us bullish for now.  There are also positive reversals on the very long-term charts (weekly and monthly) which, unless negated, could keep the market generally bullish.  This does not mean, however, that we will not monitor for corrective trade and change in bias.  For example, we have a chance to correct back to 664.4 at some point this week.  For Monday, we are neutral as we had mixed end of day patterns on Friday."

 

Mike

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At 7am:

 

Early calls: Corn 12-14 cents lower, soybeans 8-10 cents lower, and wheat 10-12 cents lower.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply lower.

Crude Oil=$0.57 lower.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading lower as the European debt crisis spreads, even after the stress tests on banks. Plus, there is growing concern the U.S. won't get its debt ceiling raised before its credit rating is lowered. 

World Markets=Lower.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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12 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 18

At 7:10am:

Some folks see this afternoon's USDA Crop Ratings dropping between 1%-3%. A few more days of extreme hot weather is in-store and then a few days of rain for the Midwest. Is that what you're hearing?

 

Mike

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 18

Actual temperature of 98-99, with heat index of 105 to 110 last 3 days, and supposed to continue that way until Thursday, when it cools down to only the low 90s for actual temperature, with heat index of 95 or so.

Chances of rain towards the end of the week, but here in central Nebraska, that is usually a hit-or-miss thing.

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor July 18

90's will be dug in here throught the entire seven day forecast. We need one of this evening's scattered showers to hit here to get this corn through the rest of the week.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 18

I'm hearing the weather models don't agree. One model says cooler weather could arrive July 20-21. However, there's general consensus that cooler weather is expected for July 24-26. And, that cool pattern is expected to end the extreme heat pattern. This is possibly why the farm markets were sharply lower overnight. A mid-day weather update, today, could shed more light on the situation, we'll see.

 

Mike

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 18

Hope those models are right. One forecast calls for it to last thru the end of August, with just some short term breaks here and there. I don't know how the corn will handle the heat, but I don't handle it well. Read where last years corn yields might have been hit from too many cloudy days. No problem with that this week.
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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 18

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Re: From the floor July 18

   I got an inch and a half today.  Too late for corn but should be a big boost to beans.

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor July 18

Wow NW that's great. We coulda used that so far the showers have skipped us  by staying east of Dayton.

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Re: From the floor July 18

 Awwwww NWO...you planted your corn too early, that darn corn we planted the 3rd of June is growing so fast...it can't suck up enough nitrogen. The anhydrous got applied well after knee high...and the corn was dark green at that point...but it's growing so fast now, it's turning pale. Probably another 2-3 weeks before tassel emergence....don't think we're going to be contracting any corn for early Oct. basis capturing... 😉

 

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