From the floor July 21

[marketeye]

VIDEO: Marketeye Report highlights continued higher corn prices for the rest of the year and next. Analyst says splashes of $8.00 corn possible. Watch report here.

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures closed 4 3/4 cents lower at $6.73. The Nov. soybean contract settled 4 cents higher at $13.88. The Sep. wheat futures ended 19 3/4 cents lower at $6.77 1/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract closed $1.40 per short ton higher at $368.90 and Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.32 lower at $57.38.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.84 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 168 points.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 7 3/4 cents lower at $6.70. The Nov. soybean contract is trading unchanged at $13.84. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 14 3/4 cents lower at $6.82 1/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract is trading $1.00 per short ton lower at $366.50 and Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.09 lower at $57.61.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.58 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 112 points.

Mike

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At 10:40am:

Today's weaker markets are a result of the weather outlook released at around 4pm yesterday. Here is a look at what Wxrisk.com, the website, had to say at that time. By the way, another fresh forecast will  be out in just awhile. But, if you are wondering about why the market's are low today, here's why, according to one analyst that sent me this.

"The Wednesday afternoon European model  has BACKED off the  idea of a  2nd HEAT dome  JULY 28-29-30-31.  In other words it has turned   towards the GFS.  This does not happen often but when it does it  means something.

In  the short term  the Model  has increase the T-storms  on the  22nd   over  eastern ND  eastern SD MN  northern IA and WI.... but   the model  still  does NOT have as much   rain  over   eastern NEB and   IA as the GFS does.

After the  2nd  cold front   comes through JULY  24-25   there is  STILL  SOME   heat over the    WCB  to the 27th  --    91-95  degrees.  The   New  Euro  moves the   Heat Dome back into the Rockies  and a  Moderate trough  is over    the eastern  Third of the US.... JULY  28-AUG 1," according to the Wxrisk.com weather experts.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 2 cents lower at $6.75 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 4 1/2 cents higher at $13.88 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures opened 1/4 of a cent lower at $6.96 3/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract opened $0.40 per short ton lower at $367.10 and Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.33 higher at $58.03.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.47 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 163 points. The EU is reportedly going to accept a temporary bailout for Greece.

Mike

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At 9am:

One analyst says he is looking at a market that is dropping due to the weather gurus. He says, "Market senses models breaking toward less threatening."

Mike

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At 7:55am:

It seems this morning's USDA Weekly Export Sales are mixed-to-friendly towards Thursday's market.

Old crop corn sales equaled 428,700 metric tons vs. trade estimates of 250-500,000 mt.

New crop corn sales were 472,800 mt vs. the trade estimates between 500-800,000 mt.
 
Old crop soybean sales were 257,000 mt  vs. the trade estimates of 100-100,000-plus mt.

New crop soybean sales equaled 188,900 mt vs. the trade estimates of 300-600,000 mt.

For wheat, the export sales were 403,500 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 300-500,000 mt.

What do you think? I'm told this report could set the tone for this morning's open.

Mike

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At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Traded mostly weaker.

Crude Oil=$0.13 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher.

World Markets=Higher

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

FWIW: A China contact (GM of an ag company in China) shares his thoughts on a few questions posed by Marketeye. The contact responses are in blue. Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement with his perspective.

1.Reports indicate that China will double their corn imports in 2011-2012. Does China need to import corn that bad? How much corn will they need, an estimate is fine, and what are they using the corn for; feed and food?
China needs corn and when prices drop they get into the market….  They may be importing close to 8-10 million MT into China this year… way up and primarily for animal feed.

2. It’s being reported that China is tightening their economic growth, fearing inflation. Will this slow their purchases of U.S. Soybeans?
Unlikely, but as they balance corn and bean imports soy may tail off a little for a period… I do not think long term.


3. Is China’s wheat crop so damaged that they need to buy U.S. Corn to replace that crop? What are the prospects for China buying more U.S. Corn this year?
-- Not really… corn just a better feedstock for animal growth and nutrition.  I really believe that CHINA will buy more and how much depends on price, local crop and demand…

Mike

[NCcorntrader]

Mike-

Great job on that report.  Always informative. Is that the trading floor behind you?