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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor July 22

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 12 1/2 cents higher at $6.85 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract settled 1/4 of a cent higher at $13.88 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures finished 15 cents higher at $6.92 1/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract closed $0.40 per short ton higher at $369.30 and Aug. soyoil futures settled $0.10 higher at $57.48.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.62 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 53 points.


Impressive close for the corn market Friday. One analyst says a favorable weather outlook for the end of this month and the start to August would normally be viewed as negative for futures pricing, but not so. About 10% of the southern Delta corn and beans remain stressed and half the Midwest dry during key yield development time for corn and beans. The crop condition ratings are highest in the western Corn Belt and lowest in the eastern Corn Belt and southern Delta. So, the WCB doesn't need the rain amount like the other areas. If weekend rains are bigger than estimates, we could open lower Sunday night and Monday but be a buyer on any break to start the week, as traders will want to buy long ahead of Monday's 3 PM central time crop condition report," he says.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are 4 1/2 cents higher at $6.77 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 4 1/2 cents higher at $13.92 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 5 3/4 cents lower at $6.83. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract is trading $3.00 per short ton higher at $369.20 and Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.37 higher at $57.75.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 36 points.

 

Mike

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At 10:25am:

The farm markets have turned higher. Corn and soybeans are up a few ticks.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 3 3/4 cents lower at $6.89 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 5 1/4 cents lower at $13.83. The Sep. wheat futures opened 6 1/2 cents lower at $6.71. The Aug. soybean meal futures contract opened $2.90 per short ton lower at $359.80 and Aug. soyoil futures opened $0.02 higher at $56.50.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.29 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 69 points.

 

A new Friday morning forecast model shows a short-lived 'heat dome' moving into the eastern Corn Belt for July 28-29-30 timeframe. It then breaks down and moves into the Rockies. Still, the Midwest is seen dry for the 11-15 day outlook. The only relief is cooler temps.

 

Mike

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At 6:50am:

 

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower. One corn trader says, "Weather is trying to show signs of bearishness. But, I'll refute and continue to say every retracement is perceived as a buying opportunity...and LOOK out."

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading weaker.

Crude Oil=$0.13 higher.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher on the Greece bailout package.

World Markets=Higher

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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11 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 22

Do you think folks underestimate the power of Dried Distiller Grains?

 

Recently, the government quietly announced that for the first time ever more corn is being used to make ethanol than feed. This morning, the U.S. Grains Council announces increased demand for DDGs in southeast Asia. What do you think? What seems to be going out the back of thes e-plants is building quite the market for itself.

 

The U.S. Grains Council is pleased to report that exports of U.S. DDGS to Southeast Asia are currently up 20 percent over last year. So far, USDA reports total sales of 507,440 metric tons, with Vietnam importing the highest total amount and Malaysia and Cambodia reporting the highest percent growth, according to a USGC press statement.

 

Mike

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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: From the floor July 22

Of course if you take the first bushel of corn that is used for ethanol it is pretty efficient from a net energy point of view- produced off of the most energy efficient land and DGs fed wet nearby.

 

Take the last and it is a loser- produced off the least energy efficient land and DGs dried and exported.

 

Net energy gain beyond probably 10 b/g/y gets pretty iffy. What you get comes off the front end.

 

 

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 22

Mike the thing is they said that the e industry would bring cattle back to the Midwest. however on a couple of different drives the past few weeks I notice many empty feedlots which means the cattle are actually leaving in favor of row cropping. So it says that a 300 dollar an acre return beats a 50 dollar a head return for far less work with much better revenue insurance options. Way less risk for much more reward. I must be an idiot for keeping the cows. ( my wife is sure I am insane!)

 

Also the foreigners are keeping the price of ddg's to high in my opinion.

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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: From the floor July 22

It takes about 5 minutes to have a decent discussion about ethanol policy but most people on both sides won't give you 10 seconds.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 22

jrsiajdranch,

 

You're correct sir. I remember when the talk was that ethanol plants would bring Iowa back to a leadership role in feedlots. I don't think anyone anticipated corn going to $8 and beans over $14 and land over $15,000 per acre.

 

Mike

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor July 22

I dont' know what the trade considers "cooling off" but with highs in the low to mid 90's I can't see much difference from our upper 90's to lower 100's in SE NE.   

 

Corn still looks ok but we do have some rolling of leaves, yesterday Omaha had a high of 85 I am 50 miles south and I had a high of 101.  evidently the front never got here.   And no rain around me that I know of anyway. 

 

On another note Hiway 2 at the river bridge at neb. city has some major damage.  Whole sections of the hiway have been washed away.   Talk around town is once the flooding goes away it may still be a year before its reopened.   thats the gossip anyway.  

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 22

Raining cats and dogs in Chicago right now. It looks like these northern and central Illinois crops will be getting a nice drink today, and relief from hot temperatures. It's really coming down.

 

Mike

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IronBob
Contributor

Re: From the floor July 22

Radar doesn't show any rain south of Kankakee. is that what you call Central Ill? I would call Springfield Central Ill.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 22

I would say that is the northern tip of central Illinois. Wow, what a rain event though. It's interesting the market is moving on more extreme heat concerns.

 

Mike

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