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marketeye
Senior Contributor

From the floor July 22

At mid-session:

The Dec corn futures are 1 cent lower at $3.92 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 4 1/2 cents higher at $9.83. The Sep. wheat futures are 9 3/4 cents higher at $5.98. Dec. soybean meal futures are $0.90 lower at $284.10 per short ton. Dec. soyoil futures are trading 69 points higher at 39.74.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.12 higher per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 199 points.


The markets have retreated, since starting sharply higher. The lower dollar and the world weather continue to underpin the market. But, the markets have slipped back, traders say. 

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open: The Dec corn futures are 5 1/2 cents higher at $3.99. The Nov. soybean contract is 10 1/2 cents higher at $9.90. The Sep. wheat futures are 18 1/2 cents higher at $6.20. Dec. soybean meal futures are $1.50 higher at $286.50 per short ton. Dec. soyoil futures are trading 92 points higher at 39.97.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.53 higher per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 195 points.


Mike

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At 8:55am:

Wheat Options Talk: One trader says, "Look for Thursday to see this wheat vulnerable to macro trade factors, making things that much more difficult to gauge now that we've set up camp at price levels that few can really make sense of.  We're at a point now where a 30 cent pop and a 30 cent break are not going to surprise either end of that camp."


Mike

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At 8:20am:

USDA announced Thursday that 110,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans were sold to South Korea for 2010-11 delivery.

 

It looks like the world weather is becoming a major market factor. Question, how do you follow the world weather? I mean, here in the U.S., it could rain 3.00" in Pottawattomie County, Iowa but not rain in Douglas County, Nebraska. For those that don't know, these two counties are next to each other. My point being, how do you track specific weather information like that for the wheat crop in the European Balkan States? I'm guessing the market's reaction to adverse weather for the wheat crop is more delayed than its response to reports of rain in McLean Co., IL  but dryness in New Hampton, Iowa in Chickasaw County. I realize radars are getting very specific. But, even so, when you sit in a coffee shop and one guy says he got an inch last night and the next guy, living just a few miles away, says he didn't get any, the radars don't read that.

 

Mike

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At 7:40am:

Two reports to pass along this morning, one being bullish and the other bearish; Weekly Export Sales and the June Soybean Crush. First, the census crush came in at 129.166 million bushels. That is below the average trade guess at 132 million bushels.That's bearish for the bean complex.


USDA Weekly Export Sales report is bullish. For corn, the USDA reported sales of 1.163 million metric tons, while the trade expected between 850-1,000,000 metric tons. USDA says the soybean sales, last week, totaled 1.271 million metric tons, larger than the trade guesses between 550-950,000 metric tons. Soybean meal sales came in at 135,800 metric tons, within the trade guesses between 75-150,000MT, and wheat sales were 382,000, below trade estimates between 850-1,000 metric tons.


Mike

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At 6:35am:

Early calls: Corn up 2-4 cents, soybeans up 5-7 cents, and wheat up 10-12 cents.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Trading higher.

Crude oil=Trading $0.41 per barrel higher.

Dollar=Trading lower.

Wall Street= Seen opening higher with stronger-than-expected company earnings reports.

World Markets=Mixed-to-higher.




More in a minute,


Mike

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4 Replies
jec22
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor July 22

When does ProFarmer do they crop survery?  If I remember correctly they take a route that will take them thru the better areas this year.  Corn here is getting uglier and uglier everyday.  So. of I80 IA.

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oncearound
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor July 22

the crush number being slightly lower isn't completely bearish IMO? because as many saw old crop bean basis levels exploded in certain areas, and basis rising like that is a reflection of local supplies being tight for whatever reason one choses to apply? kinda hard to crush what isn't available

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor July 22

Mike, I'm guessing you have always lived in the midwest, which is essentially a tropical country in summer. Weather trends are much broader in most temperate climates, or steppe regions and percipitation is not dominated by thunderstorms, but broad fronts. Much like the far West. where percip through the year is the dominate pattern, not usually thunderstorms on a particuolar day. I believe that is more the case in the FSU areas to the south where semi aridf conditions (compared to the Midwest) are the rule.


The dryess in the FSU is becoming more important by the day as the situation becomes more definite. It will certainly affect the wheat market, and probably the feed market to some degree. The following article indicates that reserves in Russia will be used strategically to aid farmers and prevent the meat industry from shrinking, effectively reducing export capacity. Beyond that is the passibility of reducing milling wheat available on the global market.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-reverses-grain-intervention-strategy/410832.html


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floydboy
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor July 22

Let's remember that it is getting late in that part of the world for rain to be of much benefit; August is a big month for harvesting spring wheat, barley and oats in Russia and Kazakhstan.

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