From the floor July 23

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec corn futures settled 5 3/4 cents lower at $3.84 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract settled 2 cents higher at $9.81 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures ended 1/4 of a cent lower at $5.96 1/4. Dec. soybean meal futures closed $1.00 higher at $283.30 per short ton. Dec. soyoil futures closed 6 points higher at 39.76.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.28 lower per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 97 points.

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

Corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel, beans and wheat are up slightly. Traders say the floor is fairly quiet right now. The outside markets are benign, with crude down 72¢, the dollar is higher, and the Dow is up 1 point.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session: The Dec corn futures are 3/4 of a cent lower at $3.89 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 6 1/4 cents higher at $9.85 3/4. The Sep. wheat futures are 2 cents higher at $5.98 1/2. Dec. soybean meal futures are $3.00 higher at $285.30 per short ton. Dec. soyoil futures are trading 10 points higher at 39.80.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.67 lower per barrel, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 29 points.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open: The Dec corn futures are 3/4 of a cent higher at $3.91. The Nov. soybean contract is 1 1/2 cents lower at $9.78. The Sep. wheat futures are 2 cents lower at $5.94 1/2. Dec. soybean meal futures are $0.70 higher at $283.00 per short ton. Dec. soyoil futures are trading 10 points lower at 39.60.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.44 lower per barrel, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 28 points.

One analyst says, "Mixed prices on the opening come as traders are reluctant to get positioned ahead of the weekend with weather calls uncertain.The hurricane has a 50 /50 split whether it will bring rains to the dry southern Delta grain belt or bring them further west. Meanwhile, the northern Corn Belt expects rain the southern half of the Midwest looks dry. There's enough chance by Monday to turn wetter as much drier. One weather model is starting to build a heat dome back into the Midwest late next week."

Mike

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At 8:54am:

USDA Friday announced China bought 175,500 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2010-11 delivery.

Mike

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At 8:33am:

Boy, you read Freese-Notis's weather report, this morning, and you think wet, wet, wet. It even mentions that with all this rain in the forecast and the heavy rains that fell overnight in northeastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois, traders will have a hard time ignoring the wet weather. Plus, there's more to come this weekend for some of the same areas. Then, I get a note from a farmer/pilot this morning. He says, "In my small amount of flying in the last few weeks, it's looked pretty wet.  Moisture stress is noticeable from the air."

Now this is me thinking again. Now, I know we are trading European weather, for the most part. But, when do you think this market must start honing-in on the fact that this late July rain has all but made this corn crop and has set the beans up for any heat pattern in August? I'd be interested in your perspective. Meanwhile, I'll pose the same question to the traders and analysts. With the two sides, we should have an enlightening marketing/weather conversation. Thanks.

Mike

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At 7:35am:

Early calls: Corn up 1-2 cents, soybeans down 1-2 cents, and wheat down 1-2 cents.

Trackers:

Overnight grain=Traded mostly lower.

Crude oil=Trading $0.54 per barrel lower.

Dollar=Trading lower.

Wall Street= Seen opening higher with stronger-than-expected company earnings reports. Microsoft and Ford reported strong second quarter earnings. Plus, Europe is reporting stronger economic data Friday, ahead of bank stress tests.

World Markets=Mixed-to-higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[zman343]

If the majority of European banks don't fail (which they won't), then the stress tests have zero credibility (just like here in the U.S.).  I read a Bloomberg article yesterday talking about an Irish bank.  Because the bank plans to raise billions of dollars later on in the year, they included it as current capital for the stress tests.  I wish I could pump up my balance sheet based on what I "plan" to make at a later date.

On CNBS, Rick Santelli (you should go find him on the floor and shake his hand for me) made a good point that if most of the banks pass the stress tests, then the ECB should announce that it doesn't plan on doing any more quantitative easing.  Fact is that QE is just around the corner in Europe and probably in the U.S.  However I'm not sure the political will in the U.S. is there to do much at this point and that the Fed's toolbox is about empty.

[p-oed Farmer]

Mike...... Markets HATE to trade rain any way but bearish....... Interesting thing to me is we are only crop wise rated 4 points better this year at this time compared to 2008 when the final corn yield was 153.9......We are 2 points better than last year when we were at 164.7....... The question is..... What yield will we be at when we end this year...... It would suggest (To me anyways) that we will not set a new record this year on corn yields...... p-oed

[Red Steele]

What effect will a hurricane, swooping up volumes of oil tainted water in the gulf, and depositing it over the US have on the weather and the crops? Has there been a predecent somewhere else in the world with a spill of this magnitude and what happens with the storms later?

[zman343]

Please expand on your logic.  Even though I do not put much faith in USDA crop ratings, wouldn't higher ratings than both 2008 and 2009 suggest higher yields and not lower?  But more importantly I look at planting conditions being much much better than the past 2 years.  Growing weather near perfect so far, plenty of moisture and plenty of heat, which was lacking last year according to many.  Plus you have better seed and more of it being planted.  Seems to me that record yields are never guaranteed but at this point the potential is definitely there.

[dapper7]

mike, rain makes grain but flood makes mud. from what i have seen there is too much variablity to hit the top yield on corn. and the big rains are making the wet holes bigger again. nw iowa d7

[dapper7]

good point,red. my bigger concern would be the remnants of the corexit dispearsant used on the spill. could be more toxic than the oil itself.d7

[Rich in Mo]

From reports I've heard from pilots flying over mo, ia, il, in, there is a lot of corn that's benn out of N for a while.   If so, thats a lot of lost bushels.

[oncearound]

as to crude oil evaporating????    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says

The notion of oily rain is a myth. Oil as a whole does not evaporate—it is not possible that it would be in the clouds or coming down in the form of rain. Oil is made up of component parts, some of which are volatile and do evaporate into the atmosphere, but these separate and diffuse out into the air. Other component parts do not evaporate and are left behind as weathered oil, residue or tar balls.

[dapper7]

once, the same theory applied to coal power plants. the emissions difused out into the atmosphere but eventually fell to earth somewhere. hence the stack scrubbers and other technologies to cut down the nasties from reaching the atmosphere in the first place. there will be effects of this on crop areas,how extensive is still a major unkown. d7