From the floor July 23

[oncearound]

i can understand where you are coming from but, you're comparing spent by products to a completely unadulerated raw product.

like you said before though, the dispersents are a different issue all together.

[p-oed Farmer]

z...... My point that I was trying to make is that we can go up or down from here a lot depending on the rest of the growing year...... To much rain can have a lot of effect IF it's over a large portion of the belt...... I just am not so convinced that every one will be all that happy when we get to the end and start harvest...... We will see..... p-oed

[jec22]

Well, I would say the one thing holding the market back would be the worry that the government in its never ending quest for the  fatten up American policy (cheap food policy) is holding the 'wild' card on what it is going to do with the blenders credit for ethanol.  Of course if we don't ship DDG's to China, they will have to just buy the corn, and so will many others.  I should do the research myself, but does E85 qualitfy for the blenders credit?

[marketeye]

I've tracked down a few trader's and analyst's responses to when will the market react to all of this rain across the Midwest. Here is the reaction of a floor trader in his own words: "As for wheat, this is a market in bad shape. Following the failure against the calendar year high, there is little fresh out there to spark the next upside move...thus the sluggish activity heading into the weekend. The Russian and FSU losses have been priced in. As for the lack of heat stress for corn and beans, I'm negative corn now looking for the recent 100K long contracts to run for cover soon. Nothing bullish with demand waning, the Chinese crop solidifing and basis falling, as farmers open their remaining old-crop bins. For beans, the situation is a bit better. Heat in August is a minor issue with demand the biggest factor. China took another 300K new crop beans today and with Argentina and China embroiled in a political snafu, look for more from US shores. This will also help bean oil regain lost ground against meal."

Yet one analyst says, "This is going to be a very difficult market to “analyze” going into the month of August as traders/producers/analysts try to assess the extent of Wheat and grain production losses in the FSU and other parts of Europe."

I'll add more reaction to this post later today.

Mike

[jec22]

Marketeye, really appreciate all the different angles of opinion you get and post.  After looking at my marketing the last few months, I need all the help I can get.

After posting my thoughts on ethanol blenders credit, I thought about the impact ending biodiesel subsidies has had on the price of soybeans.  Soybeans have went up and diesel down....so short term it is a positive.  Could the same happen with corn? 

That said, those that have lost investments and jobs because of the end of subsidies in those new industries is concerning.

Another sad fact if China goes to importing more corn because of less available DDG's, we just ship more jobs over to China from the US.  Now how do I convince the greenies that corn and soybeans are the original 'solar powered' fuel?

[marketeye]

Thanks jec22. I appreciate you following Marketeye. I enjoy bringing you guys and gals the information that could help with your risk management plan. Don't get me wrong, I realize some of the stuff I post is 'noise'. But, when you combine all of the info. hopefully it means and is worth something to you.

What is it that I'm not doing, that I could be, to serve you better? Let me know. I appreciate your feedback.

Thanks again. And know we appreciate you choosing us as a source for ag information. I know you have plenty of options.

Mike