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Veteran Advisor

From the floor July 28

And there's more! Well, not to belabor yesterday's point that parts of Ohio's corn is in deep trouble, but I did receive this photo this morning that is pretty dramatic. Take a look:

drought corn 7-23.jpg

 

Photo caption from SW Ohio farmer: "I'm standing on a gravel ridge (about 3 acres). This area has been curled up tight like a pineapple for 18 days. The rest of the field is 8' tall and fully tasseled. This is the first time I have ever had corn just quit on me. Hopefully we can at least save a little on combine costs since there will be nothing here. The rest of the field is also dry and firing almost up to the ear. We need a an inch of rain a week for the next three weeks to get anything out of this."

 

Note: By the way, if you missed it, here's a full story with agronomists and farmers talking about how important August will be for this year's ear-fill stage for the U.S. corn crop.

 

Read Will the corn cob gain weight?

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.86 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract closed 9 cents lower at $13.71 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures contract closed 11 1/2 cents lower at $6.93 1/4. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract settled unchanged at $363.30. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.76 lower at $56.55.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.11 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 22 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 4 cents lower at $6.87 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $13.75 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures contract is trading 1 3/4 cents higher at $7.06 1/2. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract is trading $1.30 higher per short ton at $364.90. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.31 lower at $57.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.18 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 75 points.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 3 cents lower at $6.88 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 4 1/4 cents lower at $13.76 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures opened 6 cents higher at $7.10. The Dec. soybean meal futures contract opened $1.10 higher per short ton at $364.80. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.01 lower at $57.31.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.45 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 17 points.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

USDA's Weekly Export Sales Thursday shows weak data.

Corn=484,900 mt vs. the trade expectations of 550 to 950,000 metric tons.

Soybeans=372,700 mt compared to expectations of 550 to 850,000 mt.

Wheat=473,800mt, within the expectations of 300 to 500,000 mt.

 

Also, USDA corrected an earlier sale from Tuesday. Japan bought 170,000 mt of U.S. corn not 200,000.

 

Mike

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At 6:35am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

 

Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.

Crude Oil=$0.12 lower.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher off of a bounce from yesterday's steep close. Plus, a lot of companies report earnings today. 

World Markets=Lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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Contributor

Re: From the floor July 28

Don't know how true the story is, but a trucker that also farms here in N. Mo. said that last wk. he saw some corn in SW, Mo. brush-hogged down.  That would be in Kip Kullers area.  Our corn here in N. Mo. is starting to burn up quick.  I thought the firing up to the ear and the wilting above the ear was just on the outside rows, but when I walked out in a field yesterday I never ran out of it.  My guess is that field will do less than 100 bu.  Planted May 11.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 28

There are some traders that believe this corn market is trying to tell us that there are problems out there with this year's crop. Obviously, it depends upon where you farm, but the photos I'm seeing and stories I'm hearing lend some truth to the market's concern. I'm not sure if this is a sell signal or not, but it's worth watching. 

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor July 28

Mike, you have to wonder for every bad field that there ain't a field in Iowa that will do 230.  So a 90 averaged with a 230 , you get a 160.  If I knew the acres of each, then I could be a raging bull or bear.  With the August report being stalks and maybe ears, it could be a bearish report.   Some may not know what they have until the combines run.  Here, 1/2 of my corn is excellent, the other 1/2 is average at best.  But, with the high prices I put on another 20 lbs of N this year and going to spray a fungicide also, that I didn't do last year.  I have gotten all bulled up in the past just to be disgusted with the reports.   So, going to sell another 10% to bring me to 70% sold.  Corn goes to $10, I made a profit but not a killing if I had waited.  If the markets melt down because of our financial mess, then I will be disgusted that I still have 30% to sell.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 28

You can't export what you don't have.

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Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor July 28

Thanks for posting my pic. After seeing the NW Ohio pics yesterday I thought they should see what a drought really looks like. Hot and dry here again today. This area is going backwards.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 28

Thanks for the photo. You may be in the worst area of the country, according to that picture.

 

Regarding the markets, one analyst says, "Export sales were maybe in line with expectations, but weak across the board.  Plus, lots of talk that the crops are pollinating stress free, although I don’t think that is completely correct.  Some talk of yield loss due to pollinating in the heat, but really not getting much play with all the rain around.  Ideas are that the worst of the heat is passing too.  Volumes seem very light to me today, so there is just not a whole lot of interest out there.  People waiting for more weather news, or some demand news, or some DC news, or something to trade on."

 

Mike


 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor July 28

Hi Mike...I was wondering if that "re-survey" that USDA was doing on the wet areas for corn acres is set to be released on a specific date or is it going to be included in the Aug. 11th report?

 

Thanks,

 Kevin

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 28

Kevin,

 

Great question. I believe it will be wrapped into the August 11th Report. However, let me ask around. Anybody else think they know the answer to Kevin's question? Especially if you're with the USDA, feel free to chime in here. Smiley Happy

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor July 28

Reading the tea leaves.  Cargill is paying over $7 for next July corn.  What does that say about the 2011 crop? 

 

I would imagine they have some really good contacts around the country. 

 

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