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From the floor July 30
FACTOID: Wheat put in its biggest gain for one month since 1973, during this past month of July, 2010.--Louise Gartner, wheat analyst says.
Mike
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At the close:
The Dec corn futures settled 13 cents higher at $4.06 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract finished 17 cents higher at $10.05. The Sep. wheat futures settled 34 cents higher at $6.61.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.45 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 27 points.
A lot of records broken today. "The fundamentals are in place to move these markets in dollars, one analyst says. Farmers are apparently aggressively selling corn, soybeans and wheat, new and old-crop. They are trying to lock in some of these profits. With projections of $5.00 corn, $12 soybeans, and much higher wheat ahead, farmers could be leaving $200-$300 per acre (CORRECTION: This originally read 'per bushel' and should have read 'per acre') on the table, by selling now," the broker/analyst says. "This kind of market separates the men from the boys, the women from the girls," he says.
Mike
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At mid-session:
What a rally!! At mid-session, the Dec corn futures are 7 1/2 cents higher at $4.01 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 10 cents higher at $9.98. The Sep. wheat futures are 25 1/4 cents higher at $6.52 3/4.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.32 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 8 points.
Mike
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At 10:40am:
Can this market handle even more bullish news??? Now, there is a new weather model that shows a Midwest heat dome could set up next week. The heat dome is expected to start about Wednesday. I know, I know, they said this same thing a few weeks ago and it didn't really materialize. But, wow, you talk about the 'running of the bulls'. The market is just as bullish, if not more, than it was bearish about a month ago, one analyst says.
Mike
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At 10:22am:
One analyst says, "Today's action is more follow-through from what's been happening the last few weeks. European wheat continues to move higher on crop-loss issues, mounting higher production losses in the former Soviet Union and Black Sea areas. Consequently, you have a lot of spec buying coming into the market, end-users are trying to decide to cover their needs, resulting in a push-up in prices.'
He adds, "It's starting to change some of the relationships between corn/wheat and corn/beans. For example, before the rally started, the difference between Dec. corn/Dec. wheat $1.50 where wheat was over corn. Today, you have a difference between Dec. corn/Dec. wheat at $2.80. Wheat has gained a spread on corn by about $1.50. So, what you are seeing is a shift in demand from corn to wheat."
Mike
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At the open, the Dec corn futures are 3 1/4 cents higher at $3.97. The Nov. soybean contract is 6 1/2 cents higher at $9.94 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures are 9 1/4 cents higher at $6.36 3/4.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.03 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 13 points.
Sorry for the delayed reporting this morning. I had a bad cup of coffee.
Mike
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Re: From the floor July 30
Hi marketeye. I really enjoy reading your updates everyday and I think you do a great job. This is my first time posting here, so hopefully all goes well!
Since you work on the floor, I was wondering if there were any rumors out there of some selling coming in on the grain close since its the end of month. We all know wheat is on yearly highs and it would be interesting if they took some profits today.
thanks, and take care!
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Re: From the floor July 30
Greg, this is a big day for the markets. The markets are running higher, there's money piling in with all sorts of buying, and it's not over till it's over. One analyst says, "What you are looking for, on the wheat market anyway, is one that doesn't follow-through on the close. That can happen anyday, when you are at these levels. The real thing the market is trying to do, on wheat, is ration supplies. And though the U.S. wheat market has been running fast, Paris's market, though reaching new-highs, is still lagging the U.S. market a bit."
MIke
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Re: From the floor July 30
You can tell the analyst that many are selling aggresively because with the crop many of us have coming these prices look like a gift, especially compared to what we were looking at for prices just a month ago. During that month my crop has looked better and better while prices have gone up. It is a rare combination and while I won't price everything, I'm not going to let it all slide by either. Sure there are many trouble spots, there always are, but much of this crop has huge potential and heavy farmer selling should be a good indicator that many of us believe that. Just my opinion of course.
Aaron
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Re: From the floor July 30
charts look like another 50 cents of gift coming in corn and a buck in beans. d7
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Re: From the floor July 30
I'm curious to what extent wheat traders got caught and bit the big one. These are often more rumor than fact, but the belief in a dead wheat market seemed quite strong. I remember a couple of years ago some traders got wiped out in a sudden but not entirely significant move.
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Re: From the floor July 30
D7, Studied how to interpret the charts in school and it seemed great at the time. In the real world I've found them to work great right up untill you are really counting on them at which point they fall apart. Hope you are better at reading them than I am. That said, 50 cents and a dollar are realistic posibilities but for myself I'm glad to take some money at these levels, I'll take some more if we hit your numbers. The analyst seems to have significantly larger numbers in mind which are certainly possible but those aren't odds I'm looking to take at this point.
Aaron
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Re: From the floor July 30
You are right on regarding using technical charts, etc for forecasting prices. Funny thing, the charts were saying the opposite story a month ago but, now they are giving a completely different story? The opposite is Pritch's sayings that 'crops mainly grow', etc., in favor of seasonal patterns. Way too general IMO. And a deadly formula for placing bets.
I favor watching general trends (production, consumption and inventories - and yes, there are other factors too) and their interactions and watching for conditions to develop that are outside the average given by statistics. And remembering that doing nothing on the boards can be an active strategy, assuming 'insurance' is not a requirement for a given situation..
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Re: From the floor July 30
Totally agree Palouser.
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Re: From the floor July 30
pal, i know you are a wheat guy. as far as general trends of the corn soy markets ,given your parameters of production, consumption and inventories, where would you place corn and soybeans in light of the wheat run? and if you dont follow them and concentrate on the wheat, i understand. just curious as to your thoughts. ps, are basis levels for wheat as bad in your area? thanks for your time. d7