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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 13

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 4 1/2 cents lower at $7.82 1/2. The July soybean contract closed 4 1/2 cents lower at $13.82 3/4. The July wheat futures ended 16 1/4 cents lower at $7.43. The soybean meal futures contract settled $3.20 per short ton lower at $370.10. Soyoil futures settled $0.03 lower at $56.56.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.03 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 37 points.

 

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

The farm markets remain lower and here's why. "Well, it's the funds taking profits. Funds buy long into the monthly USDA Crop Supply/Demand Reports and take profits afterward. That is their trading pattern. It's profit-taking from the Report's rally. But it won't last, as this week or next gives us the low, with a rally into the June 30 report," one analyst says.

 

A separate floor trader agrees saying, "There is alot of profit taking going on.  Last week we saw corn at its all time highs gaining around 50 cents for the week.  We have come off the highs but are still trading in the upper price range.  Tight supplies are providing some support.   Crude oil is lower as well as equities which are dragging down all commodities as well."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures are trading 6 1/4 cents lower at $7.80 3/4. The July soybean contract is 1/4 of a cent lower at $13.87. The July wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower at $7.53 1/4. The soybean meal futures are trading $1.50 per short ton lower at $371.80. Soyoil futures are trading $0.02 higher at $56.83.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.20 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 20 points.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 3/4 of a cent higher at $7.87 1/2, Dec. corn opened 5 cents lower at $7.07 1/2. The July soybean contract opened 5 cents lower at $13.82. The July wheat futures opened 2 cents higher at $7.61 3/4. The soybean meal and soyoil futures opened lower.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.73 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 47 points.

 

Mike

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At 7:20am:

Monday morning corn market preview: One technical trader says, "When we gapped higher on Thursday, we also opened above a daily trend line which now is near the gap/lap area (i.e. 766.4 which is now a previously untested high and close area).  The market will either come back to fill that open gap or trade to the top of the trend channel (moves slightly on a daily basis but comes in at 806.4 on Monday) if not to the 814 area which is a 1.000  lap extension area.  There is no specific time frame for completion of one of these patterns. Even if we do make a move back to fill the gap/lap, the market will still have to convince us that any such move(s) lower is anything more than corrective.  As of writing, the “angle” of the market remains bullish and there are very “long-term” positive reversals and pitchfork patterns on the weekly charts which keep the bias generally to the long side for now. "

 

Mike

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At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents lower and wheat 3-5 cents higher.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.

Crude Oil=$1.04 lower.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher after a big sell-off Friday.

World Markets=Mixed with Asia/Pacific down and Europe higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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14 Replies
NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 13

wow- that is as bearish a comment I have heard in some time

 

shall I attempt to paraphrase?

 

"The price will probably retreat to about 766- At that point if it continues to go lower look out."

 

just my opinion

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 13

What should be the value of corn?  Looks like when priced in gold, the price of corn has the same value now as it did several years ago when it was under two bucks.

 

When cash corn was 1.80, gold was around 360.  Now that gold is 1530, that adjusted 1.80 for corn comes out to be 7.65. 

 

After all this time, corn is just treading water.  Now what that says for my money in cash is not good.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 13

Looks like China is buying U.S. corn. This week's export data confirms 2.6 million metric tons of U.S. corn has been inspected for shipment to China.

 

Mike

 

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OK_Grains
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 13

Would suggest that the China loadings out of the PNW are just executing the existing unknown sales Mike. FWIW dont expect to see China in the market for  US corn for a while, their import margins are running very negative with current US prices.......

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 13

OK_Grains,

 

Yes. The Dow Jones Newswire indicates the 'unknown' buyer is China.

 

Mike

 

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 13

NCCorntrader,

 

This afternoon's corn good/excellent rating is seen at 67%, up a few points from last week. But, I'm getting word the flooding is getting worse in the western Corn Belt and it's raining like cats-and-dogs in Iowa today, creating more flooding. Rain helps corn grow, but how long can some of this corn be underwater and survive?

 

It's a question that needs to be asked, though I'm sure we won't know the answer until harvest time.

 

Mike

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 13

Mike.....total inspections were 32 million....2.6 mmt would be about 100 million bushels...

 

I see one column in a report that says 2.596 million bushels for mainland China, another column for China T at 5.038 myn bushels and .488 milliion for China T in another column...that would be a grand total of around 8 million bushels, or about 25% of the weekly inspections going to China...

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 13

When they buy, they buy big don't they?

 

Are you getting drenched in southeast Iowa today? The rain just keeps falling. I understand that one farmer in central Iowa (along a river) has lost $1.0 million worth of crops. Another group of farmers that have 5,000-6,000 acres are affected. And today, another gulley washer hit, I'm told.

 

 

Mike

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor June 13

Increases in China corn imports are a strategic issue in markets. No doubt they are both supplying current markets and building corn inventories back to what they consider a level that provides 'security'. I doubt they back off though they would try and avoid being the 'cause' of a blow off if worse came to worse.

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