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Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 14

After the close:
USDA says 91% of the soybean crop has been planted. The trade expected between 8-10% was still out, so no surprise. Missouri soy plantings at 71%. Corn is 98% emerged, above a week ago. Wheat-spring 86% good/excellent, winter wheat 9% harvested, above 7% a year ago.
One analyst says, "I view this report as friendly to beans and bearish to corn. Planting progress for beans is in line with expectations at 91% planted. Trade estimate was 89-92%. Conditions with corn up 1% is slightly bearish as trade estimates were for steady ratings.
 
Biggest surprises in corn ratings are the 5% drop in Ohio and a 4% drop in Nebraska. Surprised to see South Dakota up 4% with Nebraska down 4% since they are so close in proximity.
 
Overall corn ratings are very highly rated at 76% G/E with MN blowing the doors off at 94% G/E. Wow," he says.
 
Bean ratings fell 2% to 73% G/E.
Bigggest declines were in NE down 8% and Ohio and Wisconsin both down 4%.
 
Big rains reported over the weekend and could be harmful to small beans that were planted late, he says.
 

WHEAT OPTIONS TALK:
One trader says, "There's no surprise seeing the wheat stage a solid rebound on Monday, considering its oversold status coupled with a sharply lower dollar makes it an easy target for anyone looking to buy something.  But the question of direction and meaning has hardly been solved considering the nature of market sensitive information (is it the still bearish fundamentals that we should be watching (with the exception of Canadian rains), or is it the macro economic chaos that wins out?) and the way it tends to affect our short term outlook with respect to implied volatility."
At the close:
The July '10 corn futures contract closed 4 1/4 cents higher at $3.53 3/4 per bushel. The July wheat finished 10 3/4 cents higher at $4.51 1/2 per bushel. July soybeans settled 5 1/4 cents higher at $9.51 1/2 per bushel. The July soybean meal finished $3.00 higher at $290.00 per short ton, July soyoil closed 49 points higher at $37.39.
 

In the outside markets, NYMEX crude oil is $1.21 per barrel higher, the U.S. Dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index is 42 points higher.

One trader says the dollar being lower helped the grains finish strong. Crude oil gained strength offering more outside support.
Mike
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At mid-session:
The July '10 corn futures contract was 1 3/4 cents higher at $3.51 1/4 per bushel. The July wheat was 11 3/4 cents higher at $4.52 1/2 per bushel. July soybeans are 7 1/4 cents higher at $9.53 1/2 per bushel. The July soybean meal is $0.70 higher at $290.40 per short ton, July soyoil is 51 points higher at $37.41. 

In the outside markets, NYMEX crude oil is $1.75 per barrel higher, the U.S. Dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index is 88 points higher.

 

One analyst says that corn and beans are finding their strength from two fronts. "One, outside markets are up today with higher crude oil, energies and stocks pulling ethanol and bio-fuels higher and of course corn to ethanol and soyoil and bio-fuels are attached to each other, while a lower dollar encourages a good opportunity for importers to move in and buy grain. Two, though near term weather thru Wednesday looks wet and favorable for good crop emergence, the 6-to-10 day outlook is suggesting that heat dome in the western Plains will move into the Midwest and southern Delta next week with temps from 95 to 100 into southern Il, In,  Iowa and Mo. The fear is it might stay awhile. For wheat it's much of the same from the feed grains but export competitor Canada today said their winter wheat crop will fall 18% this year due to unplanted acres and a severe early season crop weather. This had trend following funds who came in short 65 thousand contracts to start buying some back," he says.

 

 

Oats have hit a 5-month high, today. Do you believe the old saying that as oats go, so goes corn?

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures opened 2 1/2 cents higher at $3.52. The July soybean futures contract opened 5 3/4 cents higher at $9.52 per bushel, Nov. is up 8 1/4 at $9.17 1/2. The July wheat futures opened 6 3/4 cents higher at $4.47 1/2. July soybean meal futures opened $2.30 higher at $292.00 per short ton. The July soyoil futures opened 38 points higher at $37.28.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is unchanged per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 79 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:35am:
The most important market factor, this week, will be the crop-weather, one trader says. By the way, speaking of crop-weather, I invite you to take a look at some corn I recorded Saturday. You tell me what you think of it. See the video at http://bit.ly/b5bhpa
Mike
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Private exporters reported to the USDA Monday export sales of 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2009/2010 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

Mike
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At 6:35am:
Early calls: Corn down 1-2 cents, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat up 3-5 cents.
Trackers:
Overnight grain=Trading mostly higher.
Crude oil=Trading $1.70 per barrel lower.
U.S. Dollar=Trading lower.
World Markets=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen opening higher after Europe's equity market shoot higher Monday morning. Greece's Prime Minister says he will move his country forward despite the financial crisis.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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1 Reply
Cornsilks
Senior Reader

Re: From the floor June 14

Oats is the market leader!

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