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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 14

At the close:

After hitting 'limit' down, the July corn futures settled 27 cents lower at $7.55 1/2. The July soybean contract closed 14 3/4 cents lower at $13.68. The July wheat futures ended 11 3/4 cents lower at $7.31 1/4. The July soybean meal futures settled $11.40 per short ton lower at $358.70. The soyoil futures settled $0.03 higher at $56.85.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.03 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials finished up 123 points.

 

Mike

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At 12:30pm:

One corn pit trader says that technically the market hasn't seen much damage today. He says, "Corn down on profit-taking and technical gap-fill down to $7.66 1/2. The lower prices are fueled by 'stops' and over-selling, after hitting record highs for two sessions in a row. I still think a rally will be brought on again with demand and not enough corn."

 

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

One analyst says today's markets are trading weather and crop progress. 

 

"USDA showed corn basically planted and Soybeans making big progress, and the weather under those circumstances appears pretty favorable with the rains through today and tomorrow and then dry and warmer.  We hit a lot of stops in both corn and soybeans on the way down, to help push us to the lows.  We are finding a small amount of buying now and prices are now well off the lows.  It could be that we have seen some lows for the day now.  July Corn was limit down  for a minute but nothing else was and all are trading.  Cash markets still short it seems and my farmers appear all sold out. So, we could see some end-user demand take advantage of this break.  So far, they are keeping a close eye on it and will buy today or tomorrow, I think."

 

Mike

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At 11:35am:

Farm markets fall hard Tuesday. Right now, corn is down 25 cents or 3.45%, soybeans are down 20, and wheat 19 cents. Pressure, whew!

 

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

After hitting 'limit' down, the July corn futures are trading 27 cents lower at $7.55 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 17 3/4 cents lower at $13.65. The July wheat futures are 16 3/4 cents lower at $7.26 1/4. The July soybean meal futures are $10.30 per short ton lower at $359.80. The soyoil futures are trading $0.17 lower at $56.65.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.29 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 135 points.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 9 1/4 cents lower at $7.73 1/2, Dec. corn opened 11 1/4 cents lower. The July soybean contract opened 3 3/4 cents lower at $13.79 1/4. The July wheat futures opened 1 3/4 cents lower at $7.41 1/4. The soybean meal and soyoil futures opened mixed-to-lower.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.66 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 116 points.

 

The wheat market is being pressured by the U.S. harvest that is showing higher quality wheat than expected, but still lower yields. Plus, the corn market is lower due to favorable crop-weather. In addition, profit-taking is resuming by the funds, traders say.

 

Mike

 

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At 9:05am:

Egypt bought 120,000 metric tons of wheat Tuesday. Half the amount was U.S. SRW and the other half from France.

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 7-9 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents lower and wheat 3-5 cents lower.

 

News nugget: Japan seeks 259,303 metric tons of wheat for August delivery.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.

Crude Oil=$0.46 lower.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher, following world stocks higher.

World Markets=Higher on strong China economic signals.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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33 Replies
jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 14

MIke there are lots of rumors about the CME relocating the CBOT to another state to avoid the increase in taxes at the state level.  Are you hearing anything?

 

What do floor traders think of having to move? 

 

Doesn't the current infrastructure that is at the CBOT make a move very costly?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 14

About a year ago, I had a trader (with an 'in' to the top brass) tell me the CME Group could look a lot different in 3-5 years. I don't know if he saw this sale coming. But, the point is he was hearing about changes in the wind. Though they say it's an attractive facility and will get plenty of buyer attention, the CME Group could have a tough time moving it. The fact is, so much of their trade volume is done electronically, why do they need to keep paying so many property taxes, electrical bills, etc.? On a different location, New York seems logical. But, how about Des Moines, Iowa?

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 14

At 8:52am:
There is a headline on the Dow Jones Newswire that says ADM is positioned very well in the corn market? Do you think this is what we all have been talking about lately? Maybe the commercials are sitting on plenty of corn and maybe there will be no shortage? What do you think?

 

Mike

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 14

How do the crops look in the northern third of IL?  Biggest concern in my backyard is how much N is being lost, overall crop looks good.  Some bottom ground in southern IA is going the way of 2010 again.  But most of the corn in IA is grown north of IA 80, and I haven't been in that direction. Need a new report for NIA cornfarmer. 

 

When we talk about running out of corn, doesn't sound like that is a worry.  Ray is widing basis and this latest rally brought out the corn sales.  It also allowed elevators to roll out of their hedges and take the improved basis.  Which will take out the concern of hitting credit limits if this thing goes north quickly.   Tells me if you are willing to pay the price, its available.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 14

Road across I-80, in Iowa, just the other day. I saw short-crops, very young beans, some fields that were being taken over by weeds, and corn that just looked like it hadn't hit its stride yet. Also some fields are showing significant nitrogen loss. Some of the best corn in Iowa, along I-80, was around Victor, or 20 miles west of the Amana Colonies. And that was flat ground. Otherwise, too much wind and rain is stifling this crop from really taking off.

 

Mike

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Marketeye............I go back to the question.........

are these bushels not counted?????????  Yes they may own a bunch of grain...........but like I mentioned before, those guys know what they have on hand.........the are required to by management and to some extent the law..............

 

so are they in a good position YES...........they have bought a lot of $3-$5 corn and will likely let it go at $7 or $8................

 

BUT that does not change the stocks number does it????????  We still have what we have, its just a matter of who owns it...........and I think we knew all along that many sold too soon...........this changes nothing on old crop stocks...........

 

and you know what..........based on crop conditions and current weather...........we are going to need all the extra bushels we can find..........because we are on a crash course to 12.5-12.7 crop..............

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketeye............I go back to the question.........

Goldman Sachs doesn't think the crop is as small as others, apparently. On Monday, the firm estimated the U.S. corn plantings at 91.2 million acres, higher than the USDA's estimate of 90.7 million, with an output of 13.1 billion bushels, below USDA's estimate of 13.2 billion.

 

I bet this estimate is playing its part in keeping this corn market pressured today. And, as far as crop ratings, historically, the market sets back 10% as June crop ratings improve. And it looks like the crop ratings are better this week than last.

 

Mike

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Marketeye II.........

we might have a lot of corn left over if ethanol gets axed...................government intervention at its best............I hope they realize food prices are tied much more closely to energy..........and cutting ethanol just got rid of a home grown alternative.........

 

the party may be over............

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Marketeye II.........

Oh, I agree. If the government support for ethanol goes away or is sharply limited, that would change this corn rally significantly.

 

Mike

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