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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 16

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 24 1/4 cents lower at $7.01 1/2, down 14% from last Friday's record-high price. The July soybean contract closed 17 1/4 cents lower at $13.50 1/2. The July wheat futures ended 35 1/4 cents lower at $6.73 1/4, the lowest in 10-months. The soybean meal futures settled $6.30 per short ton lower at $353.70 and soyoil futures closed $0.73 lower at $56.32.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.10 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 22 points.

 

Wheat Options Talk: One options floor trader summarizing today's wheat market couldn't help but to focus on corn.

In a statement to customers, he says, "The $1.20 break in the wheat, since last week, is certainly something to marvel at, as futures went home on a tumuluous Thursday with one more final chunk of ground given up on top of an already putrid performance in the final minute.  But looking at the 'monthly' corn chart as we head home, there's nothing even close to how frightening that is shaping up to be. It looks as though, even after this past punishing six sessions that seemed bound to catch a bid and bounce, the corn is presently positioned on the 'monthly' like a rollercoaster that has just come past the level on the first big drop, with almost the entire gut-wrenching fall ahead of it.  And with ethanol looking to be chopped in a major way from the federal budget, it's not surprising to see that anyone who was making educated guesses about the outcome has now run for cover."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures are trading 4 3/4 cents lower at $7.21, down 13% from last Friday's record-high price. The July soybean contract is 8 cents lower at $13.60. The July wheat futures are trading 6 1/2 cents lower at $7.02. The soybean meal futures are trading $0.50 per short ton lower at $359.50 and soyoil futures are trading $0.70 lower at $56.35.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.38 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 73 points.

 

One broker says, "Informa's new acreage estimates were a little friendly to the corn and wheat I think, and possible the soybeans as well.  Some follow through spec selling early, and even guys that bought yesterday are out today.  We have done enough damage to the charts, though, and some type of recovery is possible today and tomorrow.  But who knows.  The weather is perceived to be better and people seem to be in a liquidation mode, so we might not hold at all.  But we probably should.  Still spec selling here, very little commercial interest that I can find anywhere for buying."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 2 3/4 cents lower at $7.23. The July soybean contract opened 9 cents higher at $13.59. The July wheat futures opened 3 3/4 cents lower at $7.05. The soybean meal futures opened $1.70 per short ton lower at $358.60 and soyoil futures opened $0.65 lower at $56.41.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 54 points.

 

Mike

--------

At 7:35am:

USDA released fairly friendly Weekly Export Sales Thursday. What do you think?

 

Corn=894,700 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations between 700,000-1.2 million metric tons.

Soybeans=185,400 mt vs. expectations between 100,000 to 200,000 mt.

Wheat=455.500 mt vs. the estimates between 400 to 600,000 mt.

Soymeal=80,100mt

Soyoil=10,700 mt.


Mike

-------

At 7:04am:

News nuggets:

--S. Korea buys 55,000 metric tons of corn from Cargill.

--Japan buys 259,303 metric tons of wheat for August delivery.

--Algeria buys 350,000 mt of French wheat.

--EU 2011-12 wheat output is seen dropping by 6.0 million metric tons to 125.6 million, Strategie Grains says.

--China estimates June soybean imports at 5.57 mt, up 22% from May.

--Chicago Weather: It's raining for the third straight day, today, and the forecast is calling for rain everyday for the next week. Wow! I feel like I'm in India.

 

Mike

--------

At 6:40am:

Early calls: Corn 10-12 cents lower, soybeans 12-14 cents lower and wheat 7-9 cents lower.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply lower.

Crude Oil=$0.26 higher.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading flat.

World Markets=Lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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12 Replies
NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 16

Hey MIke-

 

howd your trader do from the other day who said break thru $7.66 then look out below? or did he go the up to $8.14 route?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 16

NCcorntrader,

 

Haven't heard from him since. Maybe that means he got blown out. I doubt it though, he's pretty good at what he does. I'll check with him today. That is a good question.

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 16

NCcorntrader,

He says you ask a good question. In his own words; "It's a fair question. As a Technical trader and one who earns a living as the market jumps around from highs to testing lows, one has to be prepared to exit and re-establish longs at a later date. But, short term technicals set off all those stops and gaps we left on way up as we rocketed from 6.44 to 799 3/4. As I said, profit-taking and technical stops fueled this break coupled w/ peoples perception of excellent growing conditions But, since we rallied so hard, sometimes the break can be just as wicked. I still think demand will eventually prevail, as some experts see us running out of corn in August. Fundamentals are slower to develop until panic sets in."

 

Mike

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 16

The sales looked pretty neutral to me.  Corn and wheat came in a lot closer to the bottoms of the range than the top.  The question I've been pondering is the long term affect of the flooding of the Missouri.  I've noticed the past couple of weeks how our shipment pace when compared to a year ago is off 20%+.  Long term, won't the flooding keeping barge freight way down be bearish?  I remember in 2005 I believe it was when Hurricane Katrina wrecked the port that this was deemed bearish. 

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 16

Todays export report doesn't reflect this weeks discounted prices. Monday's sales report will be a very different story.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 16

There is no sales report out Monday.  The export shipment report comes out on Mondays. 

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 16

Thanks Gored for setting me straight. I can tell you for sure that the sun is out here in Western Ohio. Smiley Happy

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 16

Mike

 

heres my translation:

 

"I was long and got stopped out on the way down. Goes with the territory. Now looking for a new entry point."

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 16

I see the gap between ZCN and ZCZ has closed considerably. we are getting closer to a legitimate market price.

 

After this run though I am sitting mostly on the sidelines until things settle. Price could shoot up to 750 or continue down at this point IMO.

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