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Advisor
Posts: 4,058
Registered: ‎05-03-2010

From the floor June 22

[ Edited ]

Really after the close:

Here are the first acreage estimates we've seen ahead of next week's USDA report. PFGBest.com says CORN= 89.150     BEANS= 78.000     ALL WHT= 53.851   WINTER= 37.698   SPRING WHT= 13.925   DURUM= 2.228    And their rationale="More corn acres as ethanol producers getting ready for the increase in ethanol per gallon of gas taking effect before the years out. This encouraged growers, locally, to plant more acres as well as the fast early dates had those undecided small growers go corn. Beans simply appears to lose a fraction here as too wet too late in the season to finish as well as the wetness has acres that ponded and pooled as not being reseeded."

 

Mike

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After the close:

Interesting conversation about how the World Cup Soccer games are affecting the stock market. The games are causing lower volume. And tomorrow, when the U.S. and England both play at 9am, you could see even lighter volume, one trader says. It's hard for U.S. folks to imagine, but the World Cup games are taken very seriously around the world, even to the point where trade volume is weakened. And this tournament goes on for a month. As grain markets can be attached to the stock market, there could be some bleeding-through on this point. What say you?

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec corn futures closed 2 3/4 cents lower at $3.72. The Nov. soybean contract settled 3 cents lower at $9.36. The Sep. wheat futures ended 1 1/2 cents lower at $4.75 3/4. July soybean meal futures finished $1.80 higher at $290.70 per short ton. The July soyoil futures closed 12 points lower at $37.93.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.58 lower per barrel, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 41 points.

 

One trader says enough people are satisfied with the corn price to sell this market. Overall, he sees the weather being too good for this market to rally. On soybeans, he says the market will get more concerned closer to August. Regarding China, the first U.S. corn shipment in 15 years has arrived there. It is being cleared and that is a good sign for future shipments. One trader says if we are going to grow this huge corn crop, we're going to need China to have a big appetite.

 

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

Wheat and corn are still lower, soybeans are trading slightly higher. In general, volume is light and trading is quiet.

 

At lunch, I met a group of Turkey officials that plan to start an exchange to trade cotton, wheat, and some other products. I was told Turkey will import about 1.0 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year, equal to what they normally import. They need more cotton in Turkey for the textile industry. Anyway, I invited them to get active on this site. So, if you start to see some Turkinians starting to contribute in the marketing section ask them how they liked their fruit lunch. They ate bowls of fruit and seemed to enjoy it. Anyway, it was an interesting visit.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec corn futures are 4 1/4 cents lower at $3.70 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract is 1 cent lower at $9.38. The Sep. wheat futures are 1 1/4 cents lower at $4.76. July soybean meal futures are $1.70 higher at $290.60 per short ton. The July soyoil futures are 8 points lower at $37.97.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.04 lower per barrel, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 4 points.

 

The floor has quieted considerably.

 

Mike

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At 9:55am:

This is why you have to follow-up on floor talk. China has purchased 16 cargoes, about 1 million metric tons, in the past two weeks. Where the two new cargoes come in, that people were talking about this morning, is a reference to the China chicken feed producer that bought recently. Actually, the word is that China's local corn price and the world corn price is getting closer, signaling a slowing of imports.

 

Anyway, right now soymeal is leading the floor, beans trade both sides of zero, corn is staying lower, and wheat remains lower.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Dec corn futures opened 1 1/2 cents lower at $3.73 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract opened 1/2 of a cent lower at $9.38 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures opened 2 3/4 cents lower at $4.74 1/2. July soybean meal futures opened $0.10 higher at $289.00 per short ton. The July soyoil futures opened steady at $38.05.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.54 lower per barrel, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 21 points.

 

So far, the markets seem to feeding off of the lower overnight markets and the weaker outside markets. The housing data, released this morning, has weakened the stock market. The floor is fairly quiet. I'm still digging for more information.

 

Mike
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At 9:28am:
One trader says more people are picking up on this China talk of that country buying large amounts of U.S. corn. He said he's not sure if he believes it. But, China has been in the market on the dips. "I guess if someone held a gun to his head he would buy it."
Mike
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At 9:15am:
It's being reported that China possibly bought 2-6 cargoes of U.S. corn overnight. Nothing is official yet. But, this certainly would be friendly for the corn market, if verified. We'll see and follow any new developments.
Separately, John Roach writes in his daily offering to customers, this morning: "Thhe executive of a major Chinese chicken feed producer reported successful approval from the country’s quarantine authority for a 60,000 ton U.S. GMO corn cargo, the first in four years. Liuhe Group had bought two additional U.S. cargoes through COFCO, for June-July shipment.  CNGOIC pegged total bookings of U.S. corn sales at 1.0-1.2 million tons so far this year."
Mike
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At 6:47am:
Traders say that weather is the main market factor for today. It's been too wet for too long in the Midwest and the Delta. Yesterday, the USDA released weaker crop conditions. The USDA Crop ratings showed corn conditions down by 2% with 75% of the crop now rated good to excellent. The nationwide soybean rating dropped by 4% and is now rated at 69% good to excellent. It is too wet in the central Corn Belt and too dry in the Delta. 
Mike
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At 6:35am:
Early calls: Corn down 3-5 cents, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat down 4-6 cents.
Trackers:
Overnight grain=Trading lower.
Crude oil=Trading $1.17 per barrel lower.
U.S. Dollar=Trading higher.
World Markets=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen opening lower. China has announced it will allow its yuan currency to adjust. But, investors flipped from being hopeful to skeptical on whether China would be speedy on this or ever follow-through. So, profits were taken and now the stock market is seen as opening weaker. Also, housing data will be released this morning.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Posts: 216
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: From the floor June 22

[ Edited ]

           IF? the national avg corn yield is 150, that will be suprising.  146 is more likely.

           That means Total might be 12 to 12.4, and 11 billion bu comes before 12 too.

           Beans...likewise, gonna be less of em.

           The soccer tourney will end about the same time everyone figures out ( usda for instance ) the usa is NOT having a

           decent year for crops. 

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 87
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
0

Re: From the floor June 22

Sounds like a pretty lame excuse for why markets are acting the way they are.For me never watched any NBA finals or soccer cup rather go watch a little league game no big money but kids just trying there best.

Advisor
Posts: 4,058
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: From the floor June 22

Frankne, you're back! Good to hear from you. I agree, I enjoy a little league game anyday. At least you can see the players playing with their hearts. What's your marketing plan look like? From what I'm told on the floor, you might want to hold a few 'chips' back to play at a later date. I mean some people are really bullish.

 

Mike