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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 22

After the close:

One grain analyst say, "No news, just volatility. Monday down, Tuesday big rally, Wed. big break, Thursday will be higher. Look for the breaks to be smaller after Thursday, as funds start to get positioned ahead of the June 30 report with higher prices into it."

 

Yet another broker says, "Just a big spec liquidation dump as far as I can tell.  Weakness in wheat is part of it and the FED stuff about inflation is part of it, but I think this is mostly related to the calendar.  July options off on Friday and deliveries next week are forcing people out.  No China demand confirmation not helping.  Mixed ideas about hot and dry for next week and July not helping either.  But this is specs mostly."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

Corn drops the daily limit of 30 cents!

 

Mike

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The July corn futures are trading 2 1/2 cents lower at $7.05. The July soybean contract is trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $13.45 1/2. The July wheat futures are 8 3/4 cents lower at $6.65 1/2. The July soybean meal futures are trading unchanged at $351.70 and July soyoil futures are trading $0.17 lower at $56.43.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 40 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:45am:

 

Does anybody have a feeling on where this market is headed? One technical corn trader says, "Generally, after several days of buying, the market tries to find a top.  But if we see patterns emerge which foster buying, the market could seek upside target(s) of 686.4, secondary 692.4, 695."

 

Mike

------

At 8:40am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 7-9 cents higher and wheat 7-10 cents lower.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Traded lower.

Crude Oil=$0.16 higher.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading loweras the Fed rate is decided upon.

World Markets=Mixed.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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10 Replies
jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 22

Chicago lived up to its name last night.  I see 70 mph wind reports were common place. 

 

I should have sprayed beans end of last week, left a few tracks. Now I will leave a few trenches.  I am helping the vegetative index in my bean fields, though soon it is going to take my memory to see they are bean fields.

 

I know we fight wars over oil.  But does anyone figure how much oil is consumed fighting those wars? 

 

 

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 22

Hey Mike what gives? Corn down 28???

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 22

Somebody better go scrape mike up off the floor. Corn is limit down again. Price swings like this make no sense when viewed from out here on the farm.

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loosechange844
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 22

Markets make little sense.  Not long ago we needed a perfect growing season.  It's not perfect!

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jrw322
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 22

Mike has asked "where is this market headed"...The answer is, for corn, it is headed up, down, sideways, and then in reverse until you are dead flat broke. The funds have once again conspired to manipulate and completely destroy the corn market, which is permanently broken. There is absolutely no possible reason for this limit down move in corn today. With one possible exception; the funds are driving the price lower, at a loss to themselves, so that they can go long ahead of the June 30th report. I believe the report will be bullish. 

 

The extreme volatility in corn has caused my clearing house to change the corn margin 12 times in one month, sometimes several times in one day. It is a moving target of margin change that makes it impossible to trade. Even the CME has not changed the corn margin one inch, (except for one minor increase in the spread margin).

 

When I am forced out of my long 749 July corn, next Tuesday for contract expiration, my intention is to never, ever trade corn again. I will wipe it off my screens, and never look back. This thing has been a nightmare beyond words...and I blame the funds 100%. Please don't tell me that I should have been short, as no matter what side of this corn market you are on, as a spec trader, you will get brutally beat up, ripped-off, & proven wrong...by the funds. The game is rigged gentlemen, and it is over.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor June 22

They are not trading supply demand. They are trading perceptions of where supply demand might go. Those percetptions are very volitile with wide swings from day to day or minute to minute.

 

I think people expect reason to prevail and that may not be the case. People and traders are not without emotion. A limit down simply means that too many traders want out the door at this point in time. There may be more of the same tomorrow or a complete reversal. Trading commidties is not for the faint hearted. Holding on might reward you handsomely but could be very costly as well

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: From the floor June 22

Imagine where prices would be if everything was planted on time, corn dark green, chest high..probably be making new highs  Smiley Happy  The funny thing is gold is at like a 7 wk high.  Not much corn rationing taking place, moving in this direction.  Crop ins man told of a scheme this spring of covering puts with calls and such, I didn`t understand the deal but remember him saying "Tell your banker and be prepared to write some checks if she gets volatile!". 

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glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: From the floor June 22

I disagree jrw322.  Last week my signal had me selling July corn at 770, and I made a 60 cent per contract profit.  Today my signal had me selling July at 700 and I'm up 10 cent per contract so far.  I don't always have winners like this, but if you just follow the trend and ignore the chatter (including what you read on this site) you will make money.  Forget about the big funds.  What are you going to do about that?  You can't do anything.  They're not rigging the game.  The money is there if you know how to take it out of the market.  Just trade your system and forget about stuff that's beyond your control.  I'm just one guy, just like you.  I have a small account.  But I have been able to make money in these volatile conditions and you can too. 

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OK_Grains
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 22

JRW - you think the funds "manipulate" this market? Sorry to say but you have got to be joking. The majority of Hedge funds this year are losing money on the year to date, especially those who trade commodities. Dont think for a second that they dont analyze supply and demand and create price modelling for various scenarios of US and global stocks to use.
Fact is that they are long as a herd and the price action is terrible so they cut their losses - these guys are heavy on risk management, so they cut without thought or second guessing.
I don't work at a fund but I do know a lot of people who do and they do not manipulate prices to postiion themselves appropriately. The markets are simply too large for that to happen, trust me.

 

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