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Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 23

FWIW Note: California's Sac Joaquin Valley Ag Consulting released results Wednesday of a recent Midwest crop tour that focused on corn plant populations. In general, the tour that traveled through Indiana, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio found higher plant pops vs. a year ago. Amongst the four states, the tour found an average plant population of 502. This is an 144% increase vs. last year's plant population of 347, but lower than the 2008's 641 plants per acre.

 

The tour says, if realized, this higher population could boost production by 3 bushels per acre vs. a year ago, or 250 million bushels. In addition, the average heighth of the plants were 23 inches vs. 19 last year. In Indiana, the average corn plant was over 27 inches.

 

I would be interested in your reaction to how relevant this data could be to the market, to the final production, etc. What say you? We invite you to weigh in.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec corn futures ended 3 cents lower at $3.69. The Nov. soybean contract settled 12 1/2 cents lower at $9.23 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures closed unchanged at $4.75 3/4. July soybean meal futures ended $1.40 lower at $289.30 per short ton. The July soyoil futures closed 34 points lower at $37.59.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.70 lower per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 13 points.

 

The lower finish had everything to do with the weather forecasts released today, one trader says. They are trending towards drier folr the next 6-10 days. Plus, I think some people are thinking we are going to see more soybean acres in the upcoming June 30th USDA Crop Report. At first, people were talking about more corn acres vs. the March report, but now you might see more corn and more soybean acres."

 

Mike

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At 1:10pm:

USDA's Vilsack is confident the EPA will push the ethanol blend from 10% to 15%. One trader responded to this by saying, "He's meaningless but the trade is already trading a 15% level. We will see the ethanol usage slowly climb all year. They will not jump it more than 100 million bushels at any time."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec corn futures are 3 cents lower at $3.69. The Nov. soybean contract is 10 cents lower at $9.26. The Sep. wheat futures are 5 3/4 cents higher at $4.81 1/2. July soybean meal futures are $0.90 lower at $289.80 per short ton. The July soyoil futures are 19 points lower at $37.74.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.08 lower per barrel, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 31 points.

 

Mike

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At 10:50am:

You won't believe it. With the floor very quiet, very little action in the pits, all of the sudden I hear the biggest roar and clapping that I've heard on the floor since actress Drew Barrymoore was touring the floor. Why the big cheer? A rally in the corn market, nope. A rally in the bean market, nope. The U.S. just scored a goal in the World Cup and the traders went wild. If you care, the U.S. just beat Algeria 1-0. Now, let's see if the trading resumes. Wow!

 

And this is the place where the world comes to manage risk!

 

Mike

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At 10:40am:

Corn and soybeans trade lower, wheat finds strength. A falling crude oil market and more rain are pushing the corn and soy markets down. One analyst says, "Corn and beans started the day lower in sympathy with lower outside markets. Crude oil is down sharply pulling ethanol and corn with soy products following lower bio-fuels as the energy dept. report on the open showed a 2 million bushel increase in crude inventories. Wheat pushed higher as Canada again lowered their winter wheat estimate as heavy rain continue to keep planting from finishing .Thinking is remaining acres will go unplanted .This favors better exports for the U.S..Pulling corn and beans off opening lows is a hotter drier 6 to 10 day outlook after rains pass on Thursday. Some welcome the drier conditions but funds fear an extended dry period into July."

 

Mike

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At the open, the Dec corn futures opened 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.67 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 11 cents lower at $9.25. The Sep. wheat futures opened 5 cents higher at $4.80. July soybean meal futures opened $0.90 lower at $289.80 per short ton. The July soyoil futures opened 26 points lower at $37.67.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.28 lower per barrel, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 28 points.

New home sales plunge as tax credit goes away. This is sending the stock markets lower. The outside markets are not helpful to the grains.
Mike
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At 7:45am:
Canada has a loss of a lot of acres. But, the reduction won't show up in this morning's StatsCanada report because the survey was done before farmers gave up on planting, according to a Dow Jones report.
Mike
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At 6:35am:
Early calls: Corn down 2-4 cents, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat up 2-4 cents.
Trackers:
Overnight grain=Trading mostly lower.
Crude oil=Trading $0.20 per barrel lower.
U.S. Dollar=Trading lower.
World Markets=Mostly lower.

Wall Street=Seen opening higher after tumbling, on the close, yesterday.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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30 Replies
eurofarmer1755642
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 23

 

Hi

Read somewhere that the crops in midwest was gaining of heat and dry weather because of tom much rains before.

Sure it is right but for how long do you consider????

 

BW

 

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 23

Well, I think if 'rain makes the grain', the market should be down the limit today.  We surely have had enough rain to raise 14B on corn by now. 

But, my friend, in case my sarcasm gets lost here....the crop in Iowa is losing top producing acres each day.  The guys that have those 'excellent' fields are very fortunate.  We need moderate temps and continual timely rains to finish close to trend.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor June 23

I agree that in my area, the magic is out of the crop.  We may still have a very good crop, but it has been so wet that many farmers don't have herbicide spray done on a timely manner.  Corn is getting too high for pull-type sprayers.  Lots of weedy fields.   Soybeans, too.

Lots of rain must have leached fertility out.  Agronomists have commented on leaves showing deficiencies.  Nitrogen, sulfur, manganeses.  Not all and not all at once, but more than usual.

At this stage I'd say we'll have a good crop but in the area around my farm, I can't see a bin buster any more.  Hope I'm wrong.

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 23

While the worst of the delaying rains have certainly centered on Iowa there are pockets of turmoil east of there and in Canada.  We have seen poorly drained corn fields going downhill in the past few weeks.  Not like last year where every field looked like a bin buster.  It just doesn't sound the same as last year and the optomistic USDA yields for 2010 look less possible every day.  I would think the yields might be heading more for the trendline than a record, possibly in the mid 150's.

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 23

I would echo SouthWestOhio and Jim about crops from my area of Ontario.

There are lots of good looking fields well advanced for the time of year BUT Spraying has been tricky and I notice more fields showing 'yellow' spots from too much water probably.

Compaction is coming back to haunt some and of course poor drainage is showing up this year.

I noticed other posting about adequate moisture to get through a drought now but I have to wonder just how deep the root system is if it really turned dry from here on in the season and can they reach moisture if it dried out.

I also forecast a good crop but not what we could have had if the rain had just cut back a little and a few more sunny days maybe.

Fortunately we in Ontario are not like the Prairie Provinces where it really is wet as you can see in this article.

http://ontag.farms.com/forum/topics/flooding-in-western-canada

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 23

My corn fields had perfect stands, no weed problems.  BUT, with all the yellow and stunted corn I have the worse looking corn crop that I can remember.  The nitrogen is gone.  I think the weather service has given up keeping up with all the flooding.  My county is not under a flood warning, yet all the creeks and rivers are out.  There has been no way to get beans sprayed, so weed pressure is all over the place.  Wet spots have really hurt the beans that were planted the 3rd week of May.    A side note, I do not know how big an area is like this, but I have some of the top producing rolling ground in the state, and it is turning yellow.  So my question, you guys out east that fought the wet weather last year, did your corn lose color before tasseling, and was it able to still yield well?

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relloz
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 23

remember--perception will trump facts most of the time

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BKsandFarmer
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor June 23

The market has not realized just how dinged up this crop is. Here in the tri-state area of MI, IN, OH things are very spotty. On my farm crops are looking good but the corn has some nitrogen loss due to heavy early season rains. You can really tell the farms using unprotected nitrogen sources this year. There are parts of eastern Indiana and northern Ohio that have alot of unplanted acres. The high yield edge has been nocked off alot of the 2010 crop.

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 23

mike, could you explain the plant pop study a bit more? what does an average of 502 mean? i personally did not increase my pops that much. d7

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