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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 24

At the close:

The July corn futures closed 10 1/2 cents lower at $6.70, while Dec. corn finished down 14 cents at $6.32. The July soybean contract settled 2 1/2 cents higher at $13.20 1/4, while the Nov. contract closed 8 cents lower at $13.09 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures settled 8 1/4 cents lower at $6.61. The top-step Dec. soybean meal futures contract closed $2.30 per short ton lower at $336.90 and July soyoil futures closed $0.07 higher at $55.22.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 100 points.

 

One analyst says the market action, over the last couple of weeks, has less to do with grains and oilseeds and more to do with world markets.  "This EU stuff has been a big drag, as has the end of QE2.  I am not surprised that the Chinese "buy" did not do much, it is new-crop after all and they are expected to be buying there.  The lack of ability for the market to hold is disappointing, but I still get the feeling we should be near a bottom, at least for the short term. There is a real push to lower commodities costs, but that should already be played.  There is real worry that the dollar is completing a bottom, and it is legit, this might be happening.  But, today is very quiet, people are buying and selling in small amounts, with much of the selling the last of the long liquidation.  Spreads are firm, this is an indication that the buyers are starting to appear, I think," he says.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures are trading 3 1/2 cents higher at $6.84, while Dec. corn is down 9 cents at $6.37. The July soybean contract is 2 1/4 cents higher at $13.20, while the Nov. contract is 5 1/4 cents lower at $13.12. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.64. The July soybean meal futures are $0.90 per short ton higher at $341.50 and Dec soyoil futures are trading $0.20 lower at $56.40.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.69 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 85 points.


With the markets having a tough time breaking out to the high side, Tom White, FuturesRoad.net corn pit trader says the sell-off is still on. He says, "I'm gonna say that dollar strength is not helping and July open interest was 350 k at the beginning of the week and still is 250 today, keeping lid on as they still need to sell that off."

 

Yet GrainAnalyst.com's Matt Pierce says, "This is still too much macro led. I love the fundamental set up but lacking a rally in crude and the Euro versus the USD we have little hope.
Corn spreads are turning to the bull side with many looking for old crops stocks to take a major drop on the report.
This morning's bean purchase from China was far too small as compared with the 18 cargos sold out of ARG and Braz over the previous 2 weeks," he says.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

Well, that didn't take long. Corn has retreated, after starting higher. Soybeans and wheat are both lower as well.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures are trading 13 cents higher at $6.94, while Dec. corn is up 4 1/4 cents at $6.50. The July soybean contract opened 1 1/2 cents higher at $13.19 1/4. The July wheat futures opened 2 1/4 cents higher at $6.51 1/4. The Aug. soybean meal futures opened $1.80 per short ton higher at $343.40 and July soyoil futures are trading $0.16 higher at $55.54.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.12 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 77 points.

 

New Europe fears have the U.S. stock market in a falling trend.

 

Mike

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At 8:05am:

USDA announces Friday that China bought 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2011-12 delivery.


 

Mike

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At 5:53am:

Question:

It's happened before, will it happen this year? As the futures markets weaken, do you think the heavy work will be left for the cash basis, this year? I'm hearing some strong basis prices are starting to crack.

 

Mike

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At 5:20am:

Early calls: Corn 8-10 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher and wheat 6-8 cents higher.


Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Crude Oil=$0.55 higher.

Dollar=Slightly higher.

Wall Street=Seen trading higher as Greece bailout money may be coming from the International Monetary Fund and the EU. However, any agreement has to be cleared by the Greek Parliament. Also, investors await the U.S. GDP and durable goods reports today.

World Markets=Higher on the Greece news.

 

News nuggets:

--S. Korea buys corn Friday, at a cheaper rate than its earlier week purchase, from Cargill.

--Though stronger crude oil prices pushed the Dalian Exchange's bean market higher overnight, a lack of fresh demand and higher stocks at the ports could keep a lid on China's soybean prices.

--After 72 years of not doing it, Japan is considering allowing rice to be traded on a futures market.

--Russia has started its 2011 grain harvest. Remember how last year's harvest, hurt by severe drought, totaled around 60 mmt? This year, the harvest is expected to be around 85 mmt vs. 97 mmt in 2009.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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4 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 24

U.S. corn sold to China in March has reached the Asian country's ports. A Dow Jones Newswire story Friday highlights that more purchases could be on the way.

 

Mike

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p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 24

Mike..... Lots of talk of new China sales this morning....... Are you hearing anything...... p-oed

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 24

Yes, big buy p-oed. Because China just canceled (or moved from old-crop to new-crop) a big purchase earlier this week, I wonder if this has something to do with that? Or, are these fresh sales?

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 24

Just as I suspected. The USDA announcement of over 300,000 mt of soybeans sold to an unknown was an error. Here is the Dow Jones Newswire announcement correcting the numbers:

 

Here is the link: http://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire?page=story&id=1442649

 

Mike

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