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Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 3

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 14 1/4 cents lower at $7.52. The July soybean contract ended 5 cents higher at $14.12. The July wheat futures closed 2 1/2 cents higher at $7.72 1/4. The July soybean meal futures settled $3.70 per short ton higher at $369.70. July soyoil settled $0.21 lower at $58.70.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.01 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 105 points. The stock market had its worse day in two months.


One floor trader says, "Better weather for the weekend and weakness in outside markets sparked profit-taking in corn.  Soybeans found support due to fund buying and planting concerns.  Wheat also rallied on the weak dollar and planting concerns."

 

Mike

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At mid-day:

The July corn futures are 8 1/2 cents lower at $7.58. The July soybean contract is 12 cents higher at $14.19. The July wheat futures are trading 5 3/4 cents higher at $7.75 1/2. The July soybean meal futures are trading $4.50 per short ton higher at $370.50. July soyoil is trading $0.11 higher at $59.02.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.11 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 45 points.

 

One trader sums up today's trade action, so far,  like this:  "The Chinese lift price controls on soy oil, after finishing releasing oil and soybean stocks. This is supportive for the soybean complex. Plus, new money helped support trade Friday. Energy rebounded, after weak U.S. unemployment number, helping support trade. Corn started above import equivalent and most ethanol margin calculations in the red. So, I don’t disagree with profit-taking or unwinding of corn-wheat corn-bean spread contract positions. Remember, wheat and corn prices were nearly even last week.
Also, I think the eastern Corn Belt farmers are getting corn planted this weekend. Overall, corn needs to stay here at rationing price. Soybeans will most likely wait to see Planting Progress Report Monday or perhaps wait for the June 9 Acreage Report, though I am a net seller of beans above $14.00."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures opened 1 1/4 cents lower at $7.65 1/2. The July soybean contract opened 6 1/4 cents higher at $14.13. The July wheat futures opened 7 1/4 cents higher at $7.77. The July soybean meal futures opened $0.30 per short ton higher at $366.30. July soyoil opened $0.05 higher at $58.96.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.63 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 82 points.

 

Mike

-------

 

At 8:35am:

We mentioned earlier that the U.S. Jobs Report was being eyed by investors Friday. With just 54,000 jobs added in May, that fell ways short of expectations and was the worst since the September report. The Dow is headed lower.

 

Mike

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At 7:35am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Friday are very friendly for wheat. Corn sales were ok, but not that impressive. Soybean sales are weak, compared to the trade's expectations.

 

Corn, old-crop sales=471,600 metric tons vs. expectations between 300-700,000 metric tons (mt).
Corn new-crop sales=229,300 mt vs. the estimate of 100-300,000 mt.
 

Old-crop soybeans=82,500 mt vs. the expectation of 75-200,000 mt.
New-crop soybeans=73,000 mt vs. the trade's expectation of 50-200,000 mt.

 

Wheat old-crop=29,600 mt compared to the trade's expectation of 100-150,000 mt. 
New-crop wheat=338,400 mt vs. the expectation of 250-450,000 mt.

 

Old-crop soybean meal=34,900

New-crop soybean meal=53,900

 

Soyoil sales=29,200 mt.

 

So, what do you think of the numbers?


 

Mike

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At 6:55am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 4-6 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Weekly Export Sales numbers will be released Friday at 7:30am CDT, due to the Memorial Day holiday weekend.



Trackers:

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.

Crude Oil=$0.70 lower.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen trading lower as all eyes are on today's May Job's Report. Economists expect 125,000 jobs added in May. It's been a tough week for U.S. and global economic reports. There is not a lot of confidence for today's numbers.

World Markets=Lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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18 Replies
Senior Contributor

Flooding at Missouri River brigde.

You mentioned last april that you went through Nebraska City, well if you want to do that for 4th of July you better call ahead and make sure the high way is still there.  The "stations" as we call them here or the truck stops near Hiway 2 and I-29 have been pumped dry of their fuel, and most of the houses and towns have been evacuated to the bluffs on the iowa side due to flooding.  They said that the levees have never been tested to this level of water before   Worst case scenerio they are saying there could be 10 feet of water through some of the area.   Some local rumors floating around here have said there could be flooding for the next 6 months.   The water might get above the levees is a big fear.   Up at Gavins point **bleep** they are going to release double the amount of water that they have ever releases before.  They aren't suppose to get to that level until mid-June. 

What a mess.  

 

 

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Senior Advisor

It sounds like its going to get bad quick.........

any word what things are supposed to look like from that point south into KC and across to STL............if they are calling for that much at Neb City............I have to imagine the impact will continue south...........lots and lots and lots of farmland are going to be effected with this if it gets out all the way down............and lots and lots and lots of farmland will be hard to get back next year if ever.........bad deal, feel for the guys dealing with this and other disasters this year.........

 

makes our little problems around seem like nothing.........

 

Marketeye, keep us posted on these traders..........they gotta wake up one day and realize it just isn't there..........sounds like most are still in denial.........probably take the late June number and then probably sometime in July or August realization will set in........

 

Our very top end on yield has been taken away around here..........too much water in the last 14 days...........we got hammered again yesterday........several inches on top of saturated soil...........early corn is showing rough..........c on c is showing yellow..........and we have lots of standing water and pot-holes............and this is very productive ground............hope it turns the corner.......

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Contributor

Re: It sounds like its going to get bad quick.........

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Flooding at Missouri River brigde.

highyields,

 

I just read that the National Weather Service is saying it has never seen anything like the heavy flows coming from the Rocky Mountains. You're rumors are true, I believe. The article indicates the flooding is going to be high all summer. Rapid melt is the problem. It's coming from Montana. Get this; the water release at one dam along the Missouri is at a rate of 81,000 cubic feet a second. And here comes the major point. That rate is way above the record release rate of 70,000 cubic feet a second in the "1993 Flood". Now, all farmers remember the "1993 Flood". In fact, any mention of that year sends chills down people's spine. Aside from all of the people and property threatened by this flooding, of which prayers go out to, this is not the year the grain market needed a hiccup in yield and production. Hold on, this ride we are about to go on is not even offered at "World's of Fun".

 

Mike

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Contributor

Re: Flooding at Missouri River brigde.

On the possitive side we are running hard here in Michigan putting corn in the ground. I know I throw this out alot but we are on the verge of demand destuction not demand rationing. I think the market has to be really careful moving forward.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: It sounds like its going to get bad quick.........

Tom,

 

That link doesn't fire. Can you summarize the information?

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: It sounds like its going to get bad quick.........

Mizzou_Tiger,

 

John Roach, market analyst with Roach Ag, noted this to his customers this morning: "Traders are taking down the crop size each day that planting is delayed. New crop corn pushed to a new high yesterday with new crop soybeans nearly there. Traders are dialing in smaller acres and uncertain yields on both crops."

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 3

I have to laugh about the issue's with supply and demand.  Seems no one wants to really let that old system work. 

 

Look at the those job numbers.  Terrible.  Does supply and demand apply in the job market?  No, unemployment checks, food stamps,  min. wage, all affect supply and demand.    The government is in the hole for trillions, does government wages reflect that? 

 

I think it is time to take off the rose colored glasses.  Too much of the world's economies are manipulated.  There isn't a fair playing field.  This is the new norm.  Greenspan discussed on CNBC this morning the need to ration expenses on older Americans so there was still money to invest in younger Americans.  The statement was made that do you spend 200,000 on a medical procedure on someone his age (85) that will only add a few months to their life(answer, no), he said those are the tough decisions that are ahead.  While I agree with him, it is not ever going to happen unless totally forced upon us.   Where was that common sense when he was fed chair?

 

Big oil, Big banks, and Big government military contractors are the power brokers.  Hook on to one of their trains if you want to have some cash.  Trickle down works, only problem is what trickles down is something you should flush down the toilet. 

 

I don't want to argue with the livestock sector.  I must have misplaced all their pity when corn was 1.50.  Honestly, I don't understand their complaints, aren't they making more money now their they did in some of the years with cheap corn?

 

If corn goes back to three bucks, or beans to six, you know what, I can live with that.  But I don't make the rules, I am just along for the ride. 

 

Corn crop here is basically good, just behind.  I usually figured knee high by the fourth of June, not there this year, probably a week behind on a crop that was planted the first days of May.  I haven't been posting much because I don't want to offend those that are still planting, or not going to get to plant, or those that are losing everything to floods.  I really feel for those that are losing houses and businesses to floods.  They don't have the farmers' Cadillac crop insurance policy.

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 3

jec22,

 

Word is the ethanol and livestock producers' margins are running in negative territory right now.

 

Mike

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