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Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 3

Good point, but I remember in the days of cheap corn, livestock guys losing money then also.  In fact, I have first hand experience with losing money on cattle in some of those years.   So it was possible to lose money in livestock before ethanol.  It is the cycle of ag.   I just hope grains aren't brought down by a global recession.  That will give a new definition to the word ugly.

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Senior Advisor

Marketeye...

so are these traders looking at things from the stand point of demand stretching right up to break point...........and they feel that we are close to break point thus no need to break it till the piles are gone????????????

 

also, I would have to at least question the margin thing with ethanol and livestock..............I am sure some margins are negative depending on the operation..............however I would assume even when things are more normal some are near negative or are negative with margins because of bad management.........

 

also with the pork and poultry industry........I have to say they are so vertically integrated that their margins are probably still intact at some level............beef, probably some issues, but I gotta say I think at price levels we are at, IMO its tight but probably not negative by much if any..............as for ethanol, again maybe a few..........but ethanol in this area still has good margins, and are working thru some $7 corn..........remember, most end users had some or a lot of needs met with cheaper grain............and if they were smart have covered 2012 needs pretty heavy a few months ago when opportunities came about..........thus cost averaging is a big part of this...........and while that average will no doubt raise overtime............high $6 corn and low $7 is probably not going to break demand..........so until averages get up and above that line.............things might flux some, but not break.....

 

IMO demand is learning to buy the dips............thus when we spike up things slow for a few.........then we get a dip and demand catches right back up.............that means demand is getting smart, not breaking...........

 

I do agree with animal feeder...........demand will likely stretch and then just plum break............however because its a consumable food, it will likely break differently and come back differently depending on the derivative............there will be some pain for some, however because we are dealing with live sustaining consumables............its not exactly a bubble..........

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Marketeye...

 

Mike,

$8.04 at local ethanol plant yesterday for June corn. The buyer says the margins are fine, and they are making ethanol as fast as they can, and need more corn. He said they will be more aggressive if they need to, they want corn. No demand let up here in Central Ohio.

 

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: It sounds like its going to get bad quick.........

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Senior Contributor

Re: It sounds like its going to get bad quick.........

    Local news station in S. Dak reported Army Corp of Eng. Opened gates on Oahe dam to 100000cfs old record was 59000. By Tuesday it will be 150000cfs and could stay at that rate till Aug. It is raining in Montana again today at the headwaters of the Missouri again pushing snow melt. This is all out. Next is to go over the over full spillway, it was 1 ft 4in. below last Tuesday. These are rolled earth dams not concrete all across. It is one big rain event from a major disaster. If one of these dams fail it will be a chain reaction.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Flooding at Missouri River brigde.

We have a friend that lives in Colorado on this side of the mountains, they just got snow last weekend, the state park in the mountains are still close cause you can't get there because of snow, now if all this snow melts this year yet, well its a mess.  We have a river terminal in Neb. CIty that unloads, fertilizer off of barges, the story around here now is they are talking 10 feet of water in the little of Percival iowa by next week.   

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Flooding at Missouri River brigde.

Hey guys I hear some power stations are about to be takin off line. Any truth to that rumor?

 

I was also wondering about the Nuclear plant over there. Is that safe?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Flooding at Missouri River brigde.

JR----if you are referring to the Ft. Calhoun plant north of Omaha......it is actually off-line right now for refueling, but it must be about ready to come back online....a story the other day said they could handle water another 14 feet higher, but I think they are being a little cautious about the situation since they are down anyway.....

 

This is going to be a long-term situation.....once they get the water releases at full throttle, this is very likely to last 30-60 days at peak flow......a marathon, not a sprint....

 

glad to hear you've got better dairy prices.....

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grossmanbr
Friend

Re: It sounds like its going to get bad quick.........

Mike,

 

I have some names and numbers for you to contact in regards to the message you sent me on farmers for the future.  For some reason it would not let me reply to your message.  Send me an email so I can send you the information.  grossmanbr@gmail.com

 

Thanks

 

Brian

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