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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor June 30

Overnight:

Beans are up 5, corn and wheat are lower.What do you say, are the seasonal lows in??

 

 

Mike

-----------------------

 

At the close:

The Dec corn futures closed 29 3/4 cents higher at $3.73 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract ended 9 1/2 cents lower at $9.02 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures settled 26 cents higher at $4.83. Dec. soybean meal futures finished $5.50 lower at $260.30 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures closed 15 points higher at $36.96.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.27 lower per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 10 points.

 

One analyst says that soybeans started off trading sharply higher off the emotions of the crop report, as quarterly stocks came in 21 m.b. under even the lowest national pre-report trade quess suggesting the trade has terribly underestimated demand and usage. But, as mid-session set in they traded exactly what the report said. Bullish stocks numbers off demand has old crop front futures contracts higher and 576 thousand acres more to be planted than pre report estimates have the selling new crop contracts of September and November. Corn was just plain bullish with all contracts higher as traders now wonder just how big of a cut will the july 9 U.S.D.A. monthly crop report show on ending stocks for the 2010-11 marketing year. The june report came in at 1.573 b.b. The july report could be 1.200 b.b.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec corn futures are 25 cents higher at $3.69 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is 3 1/2 cents lower at $9.08 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures are 15 1/2 cents higher at $4.72 1/4. Dec. soybean meal futures are $2.70 lower at $263.10 per short ton. The Dec. soyoil futures are 26 points higher at $37.07.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.04 higher per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 26 points.

 

Mike

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At 10:20am:

Corn is off its limit, now trading 27 1/2 cents higher at $3.71 1/2 per bushel. One trader says the corn market has re-tested the limit up mark twice. Soybeans are lower by 3 1/4 cents at 9.09 1/4. Essentially, the higher bean acres from this morning's report is pulling the beans down. Wheat is up 19 cents at $4.76 3/4. 

 

The outside markets are essentially neutral.

 

Mike

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At the open:

CORN HITS LIMIT UP!!!

At the open, the Dec corn futures opened up the daily limit of 30 cents at $3.74. The Nov. soybean contract opened 16 cents higher at $9.28. The July wheat futures opened 17 cents higher at $4.74. Aug. soybean meal futures opened $7.20 higher at $288.00 per short ton. The Aug. soyoil futures opened 45 points higher at $36.70.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.44 higher per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 5 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:12am:
One floor analyst says: "Don't be surprised if these calls are on the lower side. Corn could be a one tick market."
Mike
------------
At 7:55am:
Early calls for this morning's markets: Corn 15 - 20 better...Beans 5 - 10 better (old crop vs. new)...and 3 - 5 better on wheat despite the numbers.
Mike
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At 7:53am:
More report reaction. Here is one analyst's take on this morning's report: "Well two surprises here. One, traders expected a increase in corn acres seeded but we came in at 87.872 under even the lowest trade quess of  88.100, look for shorts built up this week to buy aggressively on the open with 10 t0 15 higher initially. Beans with 3 m.a. still to be planted and talk of 194 m.a. increase came in at 78.868 m.a. versus the average pre-report guess of 78.292 but with stronger outside  markets and demand for beans a flat to higher open looks in order.Rule of thumb is its not how you open but how you close on report day that tells you the trend."
Mike
---------------- 
At 7:50am:
VERY BULLISH REPORT FOR CORN. Here is one trader's reaction:
"For Corn, the most bullish development you could have ever dreamed for corn. 20-30 higher.
 
Less acres than the lowest trade estimate and nearly 300 million less stocks than expected.
 
Beans were friendly on the stocks side, about 700,000 acres higher than the trade estimate, but will be viewed as friendly because of the corn strength.
 
Wheat, nothing friendly here with all wheat acreage up 500,000 from estimates and up 33 million above on the stocks.
 
I am amazed at this corn, it is a double whammy for bullishness. Not only did you take stocks DOWN dramatically, you cut the acreage too, so if you make an assumption on yield of let’s say 167 bushels/acre you have 1 million less acres so that’s immediately 167 million bushels off carryout, and then with the stocks coming in less than expected by 288 million bushels this is a estimated 455 million bushels off carryout, which last month was 1.573 billion bushels.
 
To put that in perspective, the carryout next year with a yield of 167 bushels/acre is
1.400 billion bushels. WOW!"
Mike
--------------- 
At 7:31am:
USDA: Corn=87.872 million acres...Bullish
Soybeans=78.868 million acres....neutral to friendly
Wheat=54.305=bearish.
Mike
---------------
At 6:35am:
 
Early calls: Subject to the USDA Acreage & Quarterly Stocks reports scheduled to be released at 7:30am CST Wednesday.
Trackers:
Overnight grain=Trading higher.
Crude oil=Trading $0.58 per barrel higher.
U.S. Dollar=Trading higher.
World Markets=Mixed-to-higher.

Wall Street=Seen opening firm, after huge losses yesterday.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

13 Replies
p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 30

I can't hardly believe that the "Market Analist" have missed the corn planted guess by that much...... 89 to 90 mil planted has been a done deal since last Jan's report......IMHO..... The most bullish is the corn stocks #...... p-oed

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zman343
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 30

Grain stocks data looks bullish for corn and soybeans.  Bearish wheat.

Acreage bullish for corn.  Bearish for soybeans and wheat.

Looks like the USDA comes through for corn farmers again!  I have a hard time believing that with the great early planting weather that farmers in IA and NE didn't plant as much corn as last year.  But hey those are the numbers we get to play with!

 

Since corn has been beat down the most, it should perform the best today.  Grain stocks data should help old crop beans gain new crop.  Wheat is going to be the anchor today and either get pulled along or drag things down.

 

Long term trend is still down in corn and wheat.  Beans are sideways.  I look for higher yields in the next production report, at least for corn.  New crop soybean ending stocks will still about double from last year.  Wheat carryout could be over 1 billion.

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lraesemaj
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 30

oops!

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soilsurvey
Contributor

Re: From the floor June 30

Ouch for me today!  Not as comfortable as yesterday. 

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Ron (Cen. IL.)
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor June 30

 

 

Could this be an admission (somewhat)  that last  years acreage  and/or yield was over-estimated?

 

Edit: my post would make more sense if I added "last".

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: From the floor June 30

It will be interesting to watch basis.  I bet it widens by as much or more than the board goes up.

 

I talked with my local grain buyer who thinks there is a lot of farmer owned corn in farmer built bins and every rally sees more sales, but every board rally widens the basis.

 

I talked just yesterday about buying calls against my CZ shorts - too late now.

 

 

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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: From the floor June 30

Reckon I'd sell it.

 

Everyone's situation is different but if I didn't have anything sold or had old crop I'd probably let some go near up limit.

 

Not that this report isn't very bullish but my worldview leads me to focus to a very tenuous situation in the financials and I believe that very well may trump fundamental grain bullishness, at least for a while.

 

For me, I might experience some pain on the 370/430 fences that I have on if corn rises more than .70 or so but actually I'm ahead if it does- won't "lose" penny for penny on the fences.

 

With a good crop 80%+ assured might look at advancing cash sales beyond the 50% that I have and the possiblity of finishing sales at a profitable level (and that assumes "normal" yields, for now we look beter than average) this is a good thing.

 

I can live with this if I'm wrong but could be surprised- I'm learning about the new financial world every day.

 

Best, h

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Artifice
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor June 30

 financials" You thought they wer tenous for 20 yrs,

are they?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor June 30

I'm told corn is headed for $3.80-$3.87. What we saw Wednesday is a false ceiling. So,do you have any corn to sell?

 

Let me hear from you. Oh by the way, do you believe that corn is the next gold? This is not a poll.I could care less about the number of responses, well not really, but I'm more concerned about learning from you guys/gals about the potential of these markets.

 

Mike

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