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Veteran Advisor

From the floor March 1

At the close:

The May corn futures settled 4 1/2 cents higher at $7.35 1/2. The May soybean contract closed 10 1/2 cents higher at $13.75 1/4.  The May wheat futures closed 6 3/4 cents lower at $8.10 1/4. The May soymeal futures settled $1.50 higher per short ton at $363.40. The May soyoil futures closed $0.27 higher at $57.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.72 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 145 points.

 

It was one of those days you couldn't take your eyes off of the market. We started higher, turned lower on a lack of news, and finished higher on the idea that supply concerns are so high that people don't want to be short the market.

 

Mike

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At 1pm:

One floor trader says, "Higher oil prices is the reason for the grains giving up their gains.  Overnight there were expectations of funds coming in for the first of the month with new money to buy raising grain prices.  Oil prices rallied over turmoil in the Middle East igniting worries that the higher oil prices will hamper global demand for commodities sending prices lower."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The May corn futures are 2 1/2 cents lower at $7.28 1/2. The May soybean contract is 5 1/2 cents lower at $13.59 1/4.  The May wheat futures are 10 3/4 cents lower at $8.06 1/4. The May soymeal futures are $3.90 lower per short ton at $358.00. The May soyoil futures are $0.20 higher at $57.35.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.82 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 81 points.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

Grain markets reverse, all turn lower.

 

Mike

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At 9:55am:

Here are some current market thoughts from a floor trader that I find well respected. In his own words:  "One floor trader says, "The Delta crop insurance rates are led by corn, followed by cotton, soybeans and rice. The numbers are fairly dramatic. What will the Midwest rates look like? Corn should lead in that area of the country too."
Other market factor thoughts include improving South America crop-weather, except for some continued harvest delays for Brazil's Mato Grosso farmers. Argentine beans are not all the way back, after a drought-stricken growing season, but they have come back. As long as there are no snafu's getting that crop to the export market, the U.S. has lost its competitiveness for the moment, as we should. That's one thing that is inhibiting price rallies from going to new highs.
We are treading water for the next 2-3 weeks. It is hard to change trends until you know more information. We really don't know where we are until we see those March 31 acreage numbers.
In general, the problem for the market is you can't find 10.0 million more acres in beans and corn. You're going to fall short somewhere. If corn gets the acres, maybe soybeans get a bid in the end. That's what is unique about this year. Most years you can borrow acres from some other crop to mitigate the problem. But, this year, all these grain stocks are tight. The Northern Hemisphere probably can't grow enough grain to solve all the world's problems in one year. It will require some aggregate growth somewhere in the world."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures opened 2 cents higher at $7.32. The May soybean contract opened 9 1/4 cents higher at $13.74.  The May wheat futures opened 2 1/2 cents higher at $8.19 1/2. The May soymeal futures opened unchanged at $361.90. The May soyoil futures opened $0.30 higher at $57.62.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.28 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 44 points.

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:


Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents higher and wheat 1-2 cents lower.


Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading mostly higher.

Crude Oil=$0.84 higher.

Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen opening higher as the oil situation eased a bit in Libya. Today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers his semi-annual monetary report to a Senate committee.

World Markets=Higher.

 

March is here and it's time for the ever-popular July/Nov soybean and July/Dec corn spreads to start. I'm told this trading strategy will be highly used this year, due to tight stocks. Will anybody be participating in this annual trend?

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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