cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor March 14

Delta sources say more corn, more soybeans and more cotton will be planted this year.

 

Here's the full story:  http://tinyurl.com/6hh3d4g

 

Mike

----------

At the close:

The May corn futures settled 1 3/4 cents higher at $6.66. The May soybean contract closed 5 1/2 cents higher at $13.40.  The May wheat futures ended 2 cents higher at $7.20 3/4. The May soymeal futures settled $5.50 higher per short ton at $355.50. The May soyoil futures ended $0.52 lower at $55.38.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 80 points.

 

Mike

-----------------

At 12:30pm:

One analyst says, "There is still a fair amount of caution out there.  But I think the longer the market holds the more you see people interested in playing the longs side.  We have lost some demand for sure, but I doubt enough to change the ending stocks estimates in any material way for any of the markets.  And we still got weather issues in front of us for many of these markets.  Also, lots of times a catastrophic event like what happened in Japan produces highs or lows.  That implies the Thursday night session of limit down might be all this market needs to do.  They have had chances to get the prices back there and have not been able to so you see some buying creeping in bit by bit."

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

The May corn futures are 9 1/2 cents higher at $6.73 3/4. The May soybean contract is 6 1/4 cents higher at $13.40 3/4.  The May wheat futures are 9 cents higher at $7.27 3/4. The May soymeal futures are $4.60 higher per short ton at $354.60. The May soyoil futures are $0.09 lower at $55.81.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.85 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 118 points.

 

The grain and soybean markets have turned around, the stock market is tanking on Japan fallout Monday.

 

One analyst says, "After opening lower on the day session in follow thru from last week's correction and Japanese disaster, the market bounced back with light buying and short-covering, until problems as a result of loss exports to
Japan become clearer. Note, Japan is the world's largest buyer of corn and mainly from the U.S. We have a bit of bullish news today with a dry 10-day forecast in the hard red winter wheat states now emerging from dormancy. Plus, relentless rains in Brazil could be cutting production by 1 or 2 m.m.t."


Mike

----------

At 10:50am:

Let's review why the markets may be eyeing the Japan recovery:

--Japan is the #1 importer of corn and a major importer of wheat and soybeans. Japan is also the U.S.'s largest buyer of pork, consuming 30% of U.S. pork and 14% of U.S. beef exports in January.

 

Other highlights coming this week:

--USDA will release its first Crop Progress Report of the season this afternoon.

--Informa releases new acreage estimates Friday.

 

Any guesses on how much corn has been planted? Or, what numbers do you think Informa will kick out on corn and soybeans?

 

Mike

--------

At 10am:

A reversal!

The May corn futures are 3 1/2 cents higher at $6.67 1/2. The May soybean contract is 1 cent higher at $13.35.  The May wheat futures are 1 1/4 cents higher at $7.20. The May soymeal futures are $2.10 higher per short ton at $352.10. The May soyoil futures are $0.25 lower at $55.65.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.30 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 80 points.

 

Mike

-------------

At the open:

The May corn futures are 6 1/2 cents lower at $6.57 1/2. The May soybean contract opened 15 cents lower at $13.19 1/2.  The May wheat futures opened 5 1/4 cents lower at $7.13 1/2. The May soymeal futures opened $2.10 lower per short ton at $347.90. The May soyoil futures opened $0.82 lower at $55.08.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.57 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 78 points.

 

Traders continue to shed risk. Crude oil is down for the fifth trading day in a row.

 

Mike

--------------

At 7:55am:

Here's a link to the latest futures and options calendar. For instance, if you're wondering when the July corn futures and options contracts expire, or when is the first delivery date, etc. Sometimes it's nice to have this handy list. So, for whatever it's worth:

 

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/4jb4ayr

 

Mike

----------

At 7:30am:

As far as I can tell, there is not much positive news, to start the week. News leaking out of Japan, regarding the nuclear reactors, is that the feared 'meltdown' is underway. And some experts believe the announcements are quite delayed from the events. So, the meltdown could be further along than what's being reported. Prayers needed for those folks.

 

Also:

--Destroyed feedmills may cut Japan's feedcorn imports.

--Though the Saudia Arabia 'Day of Rage' petered out Friday, another one is scheduled for March 18.

--A number of countries are having uprising attempts. The most-watched is Libya, but there are many others.

--Copper prices are trending lower. Traders say copper is a leading economic indicator, always has been. The saying is that 'every bull has a copper top'. Do you believe this?

--China's Dalian Exchange grain and soybean prices closed lower, overnight.

--The market has no fresh demand to trade today.

--Inflation fears are running rampant in China, Brazil, with talks of raising interest rates in those countries. Meanwhile, tomorrow the U.S. Fed Reserve will hold a policy meeting.

--The positive piece of today's market is that livestock producers have a chance to price some feed demands.

--At least one analyst believes the grain markets will stop the bleeding this week, hitting a low Wednesday or so.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

----------

At 6:55am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 10-12 cents lower and wheat 3-5 cents lower.


Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading lower.

Crude Oil=$1.70 lower. Trading at a 2-week low.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen lower as innvestors assess the aftermath damage from Japan's devestating earthquake. Plus, there is news, this morning, the fuel rods in the nuclear reactor have been exposed. This is something the Japanese officials hoped didn't happen. So, things are very much tenuous. 

World Markets=Mixed-to-lower.


More in a minute,


Mike

0 Kudos
24 Replies
stupid
Contributor

Re: From the floor March 14

Just read China confessed they over estimated corn supplies by 14mil tonnes. Should this be major bullish news?

0 Kudos
farmersaw
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor March 14

According to what I just read, the meltdown talk is completely overdone, and there is virtually no chance of any serious public health problems resulting from the meltdown.  Is the media sensationalizing?  Time will tell.

0 Kudos
stupid
Contributor

Re: From the floor March 14

From what I understnd China produced 12mil tonnes(472500000bu) less than earlier stated and used 2mil tonnes(78750000bu) more.

0 Kudos
JohnQ
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor March 14

 


@farmersaw wrote:

According to what I just read, the meltdown talk is completely overdone, and there is virtually no chance of any serious public health problems resulting from the meltdown.  Is the media sensationalizing?  Time will tell.


 

I'm on the complete opposite side of the fence.

 

"meltdown talk is completely overdone, and there is virtually no chance of any serious public health problems resulting from the meltdown."??? 

 

My ass..Japan is downplaying the whole thing 100 fold in my opinion. The media isn't sensationalizing a **bleep** thing. Horrible situation over there, absolutely horrible.

0 Kudos
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor March 14

I'm sure you have heard of the saying that 'Nothing is ever as bad as you think, or good as you think'. Let's hope, for Japan's sake, the nuclear plant situation isn't as bad as we think.

 

Mike

 

0 Kudos
farmersaw
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor March 14

John Q...   care to make a friendly wager on the situation?  Smiley Happy

0 Kudos
Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor March 14

A friend of mine from way back when works in a nuclear facility.  He claims that even in the event of a full 'meltdown', all plants with modern safety features (Chernobyl was NOT one of them), the danger of leaking deadly levels of radioactivity are almost nonexistant.  However, he pointed out that while the radiation will be contained, a full meltdown would damage the plant so severely that it would never operate again.  If I understood him right, the containment vessel would just be sealed off, until the radiation levels went down on their own, which I think was a couple hundred years or more.

0 Kudos
farmersaw
Frequent Contributor

Re: From the floor March 14

Nebrfarmer...  you have a BINGO

0 Kudos
jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor March 14

My response to events in Japan...prayers...what a terrible tragedy even without the nuke problems. 

 

As for copper.  Way back when copper started it's run up it was at around 260 I think.  So a 418 is still a really healthy market.  That said, kind of starting to look like we are going to shake the trees here...and get rid of some that had went long and some that are questioning their hedges in the grains.  We have a decent week of weather coming this week...might crack the door open to think about getting in field at the end of the week if we don't get rain.  If the market thinks we are going to the field, prices come down even more.  The market has six weeks before it will worry about delays in planting... a long time for a correction.

 

  Long term,  does this put nuclear energy off the table in the US? 

 

I do have some advice today that is 100% correct.  Make sure you have your crop insurance taken care of...tomorrow is the deadline.

 

0 Kudos