cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

From the floor March 2

VIDEO: March is here and it's time for the ever-popular July/Nov soybean and July/Dec corn spreads to start. See full story at http://tinyurl.com/4kxcxoo

 

At the close:

The May corn futures settled 14 cents lower at $7.21 1/2. The May soybean contract closed 19 cents higher at $13.94 1/4.  The May wheat futures closed 1 cent higher at $8.11 1/4. The May soymeal futures settled $1.00 higher per short ton at $364.40. The May soyoil futures settled $1.20 higher at $58.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.57 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 19 points.


One analyst says, "Inner-commodity spread-trading sent the grain markets in mixed directions. For awhile now it's been popular, from the spread standpoint, fundamentally, to be buying corn and selling wheat and buying corn, selling soybeans. However, the fundamentals have turned enough that concerns have set in that wheat prices are getting too low compared to corn. If that happens, wheat will be used for feed vs. corn. So, that idea kept a lid on wheat prices today.
For soybeans, the support came from concern over Brazilian harvest delays. Also, the trade is thinking the market has bought the 2001 corn acres, not the needed soybean acres. We have to make sure we get more soybean acres from double-cropping.

Light Deliveries
He adds, "We're moving into a timeframe where stocks are going to get tighter with each passing week. As we approach August 31, the end of the marketing year, we know where our ending stocks are: 18-day supply of corn and 9-day supply of soybeans. Overtime, cash is going to be king. Each delivery period we will see fewer and fewer deliveries. Cash supplies are more valuable than deliveries.

Going Forward

"Choppy going forward this week. We had a key reversal in the March and July corn contracts. So, technicians will take note of that event in the overnight markets," he says.


Mike

----------

At mid-session:

Corn is getting whacked!

The May corn futures are 15 1/2 cents lower at $7.20 1/4. The May soybean contract is 11 cents higher at $13.86.  The May wheat futures are 2 3/4 cents lower at $8.07 1/2. The May soymeal futures are $2.70 higher per short ton at $364.60. The May soyoil futures are $0.79 higher at $58.39.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.53 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 1 point.


One floor trader says, "The uncertainty around the world is causing people to rush to safety in gold and silver. Other people are deciding to run to the sidelines of the grain markets. Corn and soybeans have individual stories today. Volatility is certainly returning to these markets, this year.


Mike

---------


At 10:35am:

Corn is trading lower, soybeans and wheat are still 10 and 11 cents higher.


One analyst says, "The soybean market is reacting to harvest delays in Brazil, with heavy rains and port problems loading and long lines of trucks backed up 15 miles. That's not uncommon at harvest, but workers are dragging their feet over work issues with the government."


Mike

---------

At the open:

The May corn futures opened 3 1/2 cents higher at $7.38 1/2. The May soybean contract opened 21 cents higher at $13.96 1/2.  The May wheat futures opened 3 1/2 cents higher at $8.12 3/4. The May soymeal futures opened $5.30 higher per short ton at $368.30. The May soyoil futures opened $0.84 higher at $58.44.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.91 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 13 points.


Crude oil is trading over $100 per barrel.


Mike

-----------

At 8am:

USDA announced Wednesday that 220,000 metric tons of HRW wheat to an unknown buyer for 2010-11 delivery.


Mike

-----

At 7:47am:

The CME Group (CMEG) announced Wednesday that its agricultural commodities volume averaged a record 1.3 million contracts per day, up 44 percent compared with the prior February.


Mike

------

At 6:35am:


Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher and wheat 1-2 cents lower.


Trackers:

Overnight grain markets=Trading mostly higher.

Crude Oil=$0.34 higher.

Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=After deep losses yesterday, the stock market is seen higher Wednesday. Yesterday, the losses stemmed from the market taking issue with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's idea of modest inflation growth and increased tension in Libya pushing oil prices back over $100 per barrel. 

World Markets=Lower.



I'm told this trading strategy will be highly used this year, due to tight stocks. Will anybody be participating in this annual trend?


More in a minute,


Mike

0 Kudos
14 Replies
jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor March 2

Marketeye. Good morning. I amjust wondering what you are hearing about Cotton on the floor?  Yesterday had a huge open and then sold off like allother comodities to come back at the end of the day. It looks like it will do it again today. Very interesting. JR

0 Kudos
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor March 2

Because cotton is traded in New York, I don't hear much about it on a daily basis here. But, I have cotton analyst contacts. So, I'll check with them. I can tell you this, apparently farmers in the South are planting as much cotton as they possibly can. It's expected that the March 31 Planting Intentions Report will surprise some folks, as to how many more cotton acres there are this year vs. last. And guess what crop cotton is stealing acres from?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

0 Kudos
SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor March 2

 "And guess what crop cotton is stealing acres from?"

 

Peanuts?

 

 

In all seriousness this is becoming an interesting bull week for corn and beans. Just when we think there will be a little profit taking the markets march higher by the end of each day. This morning is shaping up the same way. Can't help but wonder if tomorrow's weekly sales report will hold another high number like last Thursday. Some of the period covered by this report still had the lower prices of last week. That should have attracted buyers. Any thoughts on what tomorrow's report will bring?

0 Kudos
steeldust
Reader

Re: From the floor March 2

Hi.Cocoa had a supposed fat finger error trade yesterday and I think cotton went down in sympathy.Good ol algo's!

0 Kudos
Sou Tx
Contributor

Re: From the floor March 2

Our area has cotton acres up, bean acres up, corn steady milo down.  Heard the delta will have rice down, beans and cotton up.  At the expense of corn?

0 Kudos
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: From the floor March 2

SouthWestOhio,

 

One analyst sees tomorrow's USDA Weekly Export Sales Report showing friendly bean sales numbers, as China has re-surfaced as a near term buyer for old-crop, again. Corn exports look over 1 m.m.t., as Mexico continues buying after their Feb. freeze beat up their corn. Wheat sales could be over 1 m.m.t., as well, as Middle East
buying continues strong.

 

Hope this helps,

 

Mike

0 Kudos
GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor March 2

I have always found it interesting that more people watch the weekly export sales rather than the weekly export inspections.  The inspections have not been good.  We're trailing last year which is interesting given how late the 2009 corn crop was taken out and the affect it had early in the marketing year inspections.  When the USDA compiles their numbers as of Sept. 1, they use inspection bushels or bushels that were actually shipped rather than what was sold but not delivered.

 

None the less, Marketeye I have a question about fat cattle.  What are the traders thoughts here.  I've noticed that in the April contract that we're seeing lower highs on the peaks and lower lows in the valleys.  We made the contract high towards the middle of January.  We made a run at it a couple weeks later, but it failed to take the high out.  We made another run a couple weeks later again, and it failed at taking both highs out.  Is this market running out of steam, or are the traders just skipping the front month going into the June as the June did make a new high just a couple of days ago? 

0 Kudos
Jed Stivers
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor March 2

Cotton is not pulling all the acres it can by any means. In the areas that left it so hard and sold pockets and bought new combines they are staying in grain with only some cotton coming back. Another thing is picking capacity, hardly no new pickers were made in the last 3 years. This year Deere is only making 300 new round bale pickers, don't know about the basket pickers but no one in this area is buying one of those. Georgia and Texas will load the wagon on cotton though.
0 Kudos
SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: From the floor March 2

Corn down 14 at midday, hey Marketeye did you throw a stinkbomb in the corn pit?

0 Kudos